Uneasy expectations

Economic concerns are behind the slide in President Trump’s approval rating to an all-time low ahead of the midterm elections. A YouGov poll found just 34% of voters are satisfied with Trump’s job as president, below former President Joe Biden’s lowest point. That’s for a president whose supporters voted for him overwhelmingly based on the economy.

Consumer sentiment also hit a new low in May. Republicans and independents reported the greatest loss of optimism for the current state of the economy. But consumer spending continued to grow, even when adjusted for inflation. Shoppers said 70% of their budgets went toward essential goods and they were economizing discretionary purchases. Still, spending on domestic leisure traveling is rising, and analysts forecast spending on luxury items like branded clothing to increase in 2026.

To cover household expenses, consumers are racking up debt. Total U.S. household debt topped $18.8 trillion in the first quarter of 2026. Nearly 40% of U.S. adults say they can’t pay their credit card bills each month, according to the Century Foundation, subjecting them to double-digit penalty interest rates. Trump has encouraged credit card companies to adopt a one-year, 10% cap on those rates, although legislation to mandate the cap stalled in Congress.

Most economic indicators suggest a recession this year is unlikely. As of May, Polymarket had the odds at 20% and falling, while J.P. Morgan reported only a 35% chance. But some economists worry an overpriced stock market and stubborn inflation could tip the economy into a downturn. In his last press conference as Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell told reporters that the economic outlook remains highly uncertain, but that the central bank is poised to stave off inflation and unemployment.

Prediction market ban

Minnesota’s first-of-its-kind ban on prediction markets is being challenged in federal court. The law would make it illegal to operate or advertise sites like Polymarket and Kalshi, where users bet on future events and generate market-wide predictions.

Gov. Tim Walz signed the bill in May on the grounds that ­prediction markets are the same as gambling sites, which the state has already banned. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission immediately sued, arguing its authority to federally regulate betting overrides state regulations. It also pointed to farmers who use prediction markets to forecast the weather and other crop-related events, saying the ban would unfairly harm one of Minnesota’s largest economic bases. Critics fired back that the lawsuit presents a conflict of interest within the Trump administration, since Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr., is a stakeholder in Polymarket and a paid adviser at Kalshi.

Trump said on Truth Social that uniform federal regulation will give the United States an edge in global competition over prediction markets. —L.S.