U.S. House

Analysts believe the political winds are blowing in a Democratic direction this fall. Still, despite polls showing growing frustration with the current administration, two factors may help Republicans weather the storm: Southern redistricting that favors the GOP, and a rise in democratic socialist candidates that may push concerned, centrist voters back toward the right. Democratic socialists and other Democrats leaning into radical left policies won their primaries in significant races, despite intense pushback from the party establishment.

Democrats must pick up at least three seats to assume control in the House. The Cook Political Report ranks 21 House races as toss-ups or extremely close. Toss-up districts in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will be essential to victory, said Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center. Olsen also predicted that Democrats will not achieve a majority if they only win one of four key districts in Arizona, Michigan, Colorado, and Virginia. But according to the prevailing polls, they should win all four, he said.

Republicans are holding out hope for two bellwether races in Ohio and Maine: If GOP candidates can triumph in both these contests, Olsen said, the party will most likely maintain control of the House or, at least, keep Democratic gains to a minimum.

Michigan

District 7: William Lawrence, endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders, the self-­proclaimed socialist representing Vermont, triumphed over two moderate Democratic candidates in the primary. Lawrence is challenging Republican incumbent Tom Barret for control of the coveted district.

Colorado

District 1: The democratic socialist Melat Kiros bested incumbent Democratic Rep. Diana DeGette. Kiros, a 29-year-old lawyer, advocates for “Medicare for all” and abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Sanders endorsed Kiros in June. She is competing against Republican Christy Peterson.

District 8: Voters in the 40% Latino, toss-up district will choose between Democrat Manny Rutinel, the son of a Dominican immigrant and former vegan activist who has pushed for socialism in the past, and Republican incumbent Gabe Evans.

California

District 22: Both Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez endorsed Randy Villegas, who triumphed over more moderate Democrat Jasmeet Bains. Villegas will face off against incumbent Republican Rep. David Valadao in the Central Valley toss-up district.

Maine

District 2: Cook Political Report now rates this formerly toss-up district as likely to swing Republican in the wake of Democratic Rep. Jared Golden’s retirement. Former Republican Gov. Paul LePage will battle State Auditor Matt Dunlap—a progressive endorsed by the Sanders-founded progressive group Our Revolution who defeated the Democratic Party’s preferred candidate—for control of the largely rural district.

Pennsylvania

District 3: State Rep. Chris Rabb, who is also a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, beat Democratic establishment candidates in one of the nation’s bluest House districts. He is virtually certain to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Dwight Evans. No Republican candidates are running for this seat.

District 10: Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro endorsed Janelle Stelson, a ­former news anchor challenging Republican incumbent Rep. Scott Perry. Stelson lost to Perry by a narrow margin in 2024.

Wisconsin

District 3: Rebecca Cooke, a former Democratic political fundraising consultant and small business owner, will face off against Republican incumbent Derrick Van Orden, a former Navy SEAL, who has represented the district since 2023. Cooke lost a 2022 democratic primary and then fell short of unseating Van Orden in the 2024 race for the district.

Ohio

District 9: Republican challenger Derek Merrin will take on Democratic incumbent Marcy Kaptur in a rematch. In 2024, Merrin lost to Kaptur, who has represented the district since 1983, by 1 percentage point.

Arizona

District 1: Another progressive Democratic candidate, Amish Shah, bested his establishment-backed moderate competitors in the primary. He will face off against Jay Feely, a Trump-endorsed, former NFL kicker in an open race for a district Trump carried by 3 points in 2024.

Virginia

District 2: Incumbent Rep. Jen Kiggans, a Republican, will once again battle Democrat Elaine Luria, a former naval officer who represented the district for four years until she lost to Kiggans in 2022.

See our Election Day guide for more races to watch: Senate and state showdowns.