Trump makes a U-turn on Ukraine

Trump loves a winner. Those words, and ones just like them, have proliferated in media reports related to Ukraine in recent weeks.

Foreign-policy experts credit the country’s battlefield successes as the source of President Donald Trump’s new enthusiasm for his Ukrainian counterpart, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

“It’s very simple,” said William Taylor, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine who is now a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council. “The Ukrainians are beginning to win.”

Ukraine has spent the spring and summer pummeling Russian oil sites and retail warehouses that Ukraine says are part of Moscow’s military supply chain. Since the start of 2026, Ukraine has achieved as much as an 8-1 casualty ratio between Russian soldiers and its own, according to a July report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a U.S. research group.

Ukraine’s battlefield momentum could create a window of opportunity for peace talks—a window that may not stay open for long. Recent reports say Russia is preparing a significant mobilization, which may include 30,000 new troops from North Korea. Both Ukraine and Russia have intensified their tactics in what analysts now fear is a spiral of deadly escalation. In June, Russia’s drone and missile strikes pushed Ukrainian civilian casualties to a four-year high. Nearly 300 civilians were killed, and almost 1,800 wounded, per United Nations data.

Russia’s continuing strikes against Ukrainian energy installations, a yearslong strategy aimed at destroying heating capacity and making the winter unbearable for ordinary Ukrainians, are setting conditions for another brutal season in a few months. Meanwhile, Russia’s economy is suffering from inflation and ballooning costs of war.

In short: Ukraine and Russia both have an interest in striking peace now, creating the best environment in years for the United States to convince, or coerce, their progress toward the negotiating table.

While Trump initially seemed to side with Russia’s Vladimir Putin in efforts to bring the war to an end, he has responded with enthusiasm to Ukraine’s recent streak of victories. In June, at the G7 meeting in France, Trump met with Zelenskyy and pledged he would do “whatever I can” to assist Ukraine’s fight. In July, again appearing with Zelenskyy at the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, Trump agreed to Ukraine’s long-standing plea for permission to build Patriot weapons, a U.S.-made missile system.

“We’re going to give a license to you to make Patriots,” Trump said. “That’s pretty cool, right? This way he can’t complain we’re not giving them enough. … I say, make them yourself.”

For now, the go-ahead on Patriots is only symbolic. The weapons can take years to produce, and Ukraine will be developing its Patriot manufacturing from scratch. And in the meantime, Kyiv likely won’t get regular deliveries from U.S. stockpiles. The United States and other countries have fretted over their own dwindling supplies of advanced weapons, partly the result of months-long U.S. strikes against Iran.

Zelenskyy came to Washington on July 28, meeting Trump in the Oval Office before the two attended the funeral of South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, a fierce advocate for Ukraine.

The momentum of Trump’s pro-Ukraine shift continued into August, as the Senate approved a bill to impose powerful sanctions against Russian individuals, entities, and their customers connected to the war in Ukraine. The bill enjoys overwhelming bipartisan support and was named in Graham’s honor. Tougher Russia sanctions were a longtime project for Graham, who traveled to Ukraine just before his death on July 11.

If it wins final approval, the bill would impose a raft of extreme measures against the economic machinery behind Russia’s war. Importers of Russian oil and natural gas, two of the country’s main commodities, could face tariffs of up to 100%. The sanctions also target Russia’s “shadow fleet,” the set of vessels that ship oil illegally to buyers worldwide. For all Russian goods, U.S. importers could face a whopping 500% tariff—a punishment for those caught trading.

Sen. Rick Scott of Florida, one of the bill’s 62 co-sponsors, put Ukraine support in universal terms. “It’s important for us to stand for freedom,” he told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

According to a White House official who spoke with me just before the bill’s Senate passage, Trump supports the measure.

The new wave of U.S. support for Ukraine—and support for Trump’s change of tune—has also taken root in unlikely places. Laura Loomer, a top MAGA influencer, spent a week in Ukraine in late July. She made several press appearances and even interviewed Zelenskyy in Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital.

The pundit, who once echoed the false Russian assertion that Ukraine was “a country full of Nazis,” made her own complete U-turn.

Loomer apologized, in tones close to repentance, for having downplayed Ukraine’s fight since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. She blamed Russian propaganda for having “duped” her and others.

“We have been so propagandized by Russia, and we don’t even realize it,” she said.

Loomer also spoke with the English-language Kyiv Independent news site. “I’m here to admit that I got bamboozled,” she said. “I’m embarrassed.”

In another post on X, Loomer said she supported giving Ukraine access to Patriots. Trump reposted a message from Loomer, with a photo from her interview with Zelenskyy, adding only: “Very good!!! President DJT.”

And the Patriots could be just the start. The White House told me the U.S. government is “currently exploring ­several potential pathways” for future defense cooperation with Ukraine.

Ukraine advocates from well outside Trump and MAGA circles have also adopted the narrative of winners and losers. Steven Moore, an American and former congressional chief of staff, has since 2022 run the Ukraine Freedom Project, a Kyiv-based charity. The group built a website, Putinisaloser.com, to stress that Trump should back Ukraine as the war’s likeliest victor.

“Trump has the dated idea that Putin is a great strategist and Russia cannot be defeated,” Moore told me. “We are convinced that if Trump were fully aware of Putin’s follies, he would drop him like a hot rock.”

Back in Washington, William Taylor voiced careful optimism about peace negotiations among Ukrainian, Russian, and U.S. players. Securing a ceasefire is the essential next step, Taylor said, adding that Trump “can put pressure on Putin.”

But Taylor noted Putin is still the biggest obstacle in the peace process. When the Russian leader finally concedes that too many Russians have died, the economy is too weak, and Europe and the United States are against him—only then will he lay aside the might of the Russian military, Taylor said.

“When Putin concludes he cannot win, he’ll have to come to the table and agree to a ceasefire.”