Too close to call in North Carolina

The rise of Republican Thom Tillis in North Carolina politics has been meteoric. In 2006 he won a seat in the state House of Representatives, but as a member of a party that had not controlled the legislature in more than 100 years, the freshman had virtually no power. Tillis, 54, had risen to senior positions at consulting giants IBM and PricewaterhouseCoopers, so he worked the problem—a lack of political power—as he had worked vexing problems for his clients. The result: In 2010 he helped engineer a GOP sweep. Republicans gained control of the legislature and the governor’s chair for the first time since Reconstruction. Tillis’ reward: speaker of the House.

Now Tillis is running for the U.S. Senate against Kay Hagan in one of the most-watched races in the nation. Both sides are pouring not just millions, but tens of millions of dollars into the race. Through the end of August, at least $28 million in PAC and other “soft money” had poured into the state. With more than a month left in the race, the Center for Responsive Politics estimates the campaigns and outside groups have spent at least $44 million.

Indeed, it’s hard to turn on a television in North Carolina without seeing an ad related to the race. According to an analysis by the Sunlight Foundation, a Washington watchdog group, during an 18-month period ending in July, a single Charlotte station—WBTV Channel 3—sold 4,086 ads for $3.8 million.

Hagan and her advocates have spent most of that money. Her ascent has been slower than Tillis’, but she may have made more friends along the way. Though Hagan was born in North Carolina, her father made his fortune in Florida real estate. He even served as mayor of the central Florida boomtown of Lakeland. Hagan’s uncle, the late Lawton Chiles, was a popular Florida governor and senator who campaigned for her when she ran for the state Senate early in her political career. Hagan spent 10 years in the North Carolina Senate before defeating incumbent Elizabeth Dole to win her U.S. Senate seat.

Both campaigns are waving at the middle, though the records of both make that tough. Although Hagan has a 100 percent voting record with NARAL Pro-Choice America, and has the support of Planned Parenthood and the pro-homosexual Equality NC, her ads tout her as a “moderate” who is “just right” for North Carolina. Tillis has actively opposed abortion and same-sex marriage.

Still, Tillis had trouble in the primary energizing the GOP’s conservative base. Ted Cruz and Mike Huckabee visited the state to campaign for Tillis’ more conservative primary opponents. Since winning the nomination, Tillis has called on establishment Republicans such as Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney for endorsements and campaign events. If disgruntled Republicans stay home or pull the lever for Libertarian Sean Haugh in protest, Hagan could keep the seat. According to a CNN poll conducted in the last week of September, Hagan holds a 46 percent to 43 percent advantage over Tillis. Of the last 10 statewide polls going back to mid-August, Hagan has led in nine of them. Libertarian Haugh has polled as high as 7 percent.

GOP operative Carter Wrenn is a legend in North Carolina politics. He helped engineer Ronald Reagan’s 1976 come-from-behind primary victory over Gerald Ford in North Carolina. Wrenn was also part of the Jesse Helms political brain trust. He says the race is too close to call: “Third party candidates either get credible or wither, and [Haugh] is in the process of withering.”

Even so, Wrenn says, “He could still get 1 or 2 percentage points. In this race, that might be all it takes.”