Thinning ranks

Master Sgt. Christopher McKinney leaned forward in his chair, watching expectantly, as the young man sitting across from him read through a long list of questions yet again. Answering yes to any of the statements about drug use, physical ailments, or legal violations could disqualify him from reporting for aptitude and medical tests the next day in preparation for joining the Air Force.

With the review finished, McKinney pushed a PIN pad across the desk so Elija Leckwold could confirm his answers. Leckwold, who turned 18 the week before, nervously tapped his right foot through the entire process.

In the cubicle around them hung photos of McKinney’s wife and four children, plus mementos from past assignments. McKinney, 34, was initially trained to fix airplanes. Now he recruits young men and women to replace him on the flight line—or fill some 200 other jobs in the service branch he loves. Like most salesmen, an ever-present goal hangs over his head, and Leckwold represents one more airman toward reaching it. But this year, McKinney doesn’t have much time to celebrate each new recruit. He needs to convince more men and women—a lot more—to join the Air Force, at a time when most are saying no to Uncle Sam.

Similar scenes are playing out in recruiters’ offices across the country. America’s military is in the trenches of its most challenging recruiting environment since the Vietnam War draft ended 50 years ago. The causes are ­varied, including the post-COVID labor market, intense competition with the private sector, and most concerning, a declining number of young Americans who want to serve or are even eligible to do so. The recruiting woes could leave the country vulnerable at a time of increased global threats. Russia and China, America’s two biggest competitors on the world stage, are both flexing their military might in ways that threaten U.S. interests and allies. Gen. Mike Minihan, commander of Air Mobility Command, went so far as telling his commanders to prepare for war with China before the next U.S. presidential election.

But they could have a difficult time meeting that challenge.

Last year all the military branches struggled to fill their ranks. The Army fell about 15,000 recruits short, 25 ­percent of its recruitment goal. The Air Force, Navy, and Marines met their goals by enticing recruits to report to basic training earlier than they’d initially planned—robbing Peter in 2023 to pay Paul in 2022. That meant they started the new fiscal year in a hole they have yet to climb out of. Army Secretary Christine Wormuth said on May 2 the Army won’t meet its goal of recruiting 65,000 soldiers this year. Navy officials expect to fall 6,000 short of their 37,700 goal, and the Air Force will likely fall about 10 to 15 percent short of its 35,000 goal. Only the Marines and the newest and smallest branch, the Space Force, anticipate meeting their quotas. Absent an 11th-­hour surge, America’s military will end the year at an even lower mark below its recruiting target than in the post-­Vietnam 1970s.

Health-related issues are a big ­contributor. According to a Pentagon study from 2020, about 3 in 4 young adults can’t qualify for military service without a waiver for being overweight, using drugs, or having mental and physical health problems. That’s 6 percentage points higher than 10 years ago. And the top three reasons young people cite for rejecting military ­enlistment are the same across all the services—fear of death, worries about post-traumatic stress disorder, and leaving friends and family, in that order. Having to put their life on hold while serving is the next most common concern among 16- to 28-year-old respondents to an Army-sponsored survey last spring and summer.

Despite these challenges, military recruiters, many of whom don’t volunteer for the assignment, face pressure to produce. The Air Force sets annual quotas for about 2,000 recruiters based on the number of new personnel needed for worldwide missions, as well as recruiters’ past performance. Because the Air Force is falling short and McKinney’s unit is down one recruiter, his target for April through June was 15 recruits—one-third of the 47 he recruited all last year.

“Literally my first thought was, well, I’m gonna try,” said McKinney, who has served in the Air Force for 15 years. “I’m gonna definitely try my hardest, but I don’t know. I’ve gone as hard as I possibly can in a quarter before, and I have not achieved that yet.”

ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH of McKinney’s San Antonio office, Sgt. 1st Class Jerry Willis Jr. works the west side of Austin, Texas. He’s a frequent visitor at the local high schools. Willis initially served as a dental specialist, then ­volunteered to recruit future soldiers. He serves alongside seven other recruiters who are responsible for 12 high schools and a community college, all located in and around the state ­capital. They are each expected to recruit at least one person a month, a more manageable goal than McKinney’s task.

While McKinney enjoyed easy access as soon as schools reopened post-pandemic, Willis encountered resistance from school counselors when he reported for duty in 2021. After a month, he visited the school’s counselors with coffee, doughnuts, and an offer to explain how he could help them and their students.

“That’s what the Army is here to do,” he said. “We’re built into the community to be able to be an asset, not just ‘I want to come and get your high school kids and try to put them in the military.’”

After he explained the Army’s ­education benefits and active duty and reserve options, counselors gave him access to classrooms and students. Since he’s responsible for only two high schools, Willis can visit each weekly and develop relationships with students and staff, instead of actively prospecting each time.

Meanwhile, McKinney has to scramble. During one visit to New Braunfels High School toward the end of the school year, he and his flight chief, Master Sgt. Joe Freeman, displayed T-shirts, book bags, water ­bottles, cups, towels, and notebooks—all with Air Force logos—on a table in a hallway between the career center and cafeteria. McKinney encouraged the first student who stopped by to get two more friends so they could play a trivia game and get swag, after filling out a card with their contact information. During three lunch periods, about 35 students stopped at the table. Only about 10 filled out cards.

“This is like a funnel,” McKinney said. “If that lead pool is very small, so is that end result. Coming out here and generating your own leads organically, it’s a huge advantage. If somebody just calls me over the phone, they don’t know me at all the first time they come into the office, whereas now I already know them, I’ve already talked with them, and that makes everything a lot easier.”

Even when recruiters are able to make a connection, they’re still in a battle with corporate America, colleges, and indifference or ignorance. Unemployment is the lowest since 1969 according to the Department of Commerce, and wages for younger, less-educated workers increased 6 ­percent from January 2020 to mid-2022 according to a National Bureau of Economic Research study. Companies are wooing workers of all ages and skill levels with the kinds of benefits that for years made the military an attractive option.

MEANWHILE, FINDING PHYSICALLY FIT RECRUITS is a challenge. During the school visit with McKinney, Master Sgt. Freeman made a male student do push-ups before ­getting a T-shirt. The student struggled to do just seven, a telling example of the challenge recruiters have finding qualified candidates.

The Air Force announced in April it had relaxed its weight standards and now allows men to have 26 percent body fat and women 36 percent. Being overweight is the No. 1 reason McKinney turns away potential recruits who are otherwise qualified for service. The new policy is a game-changer. But it may have unintended costs. The American Council on Exercise says a body mass index of 25 is overweight and 30 is obese. That means new recruits have increased risks for serious health problems.

Last year, the Army found a way to qualify more youth by creating a Future Soldier Preparatory Course at Fort Jackson, S.C. The program helps recruits who couldn’t pass the aptitude or physical tests prepare for basic training. More than 8,600 recruits have attended the course since it opened in August 2022, with a 95 percent graduation rate. Participants receive academic instruction and fitness training and learn how to wear the uniform and make a bed—all skills necessary to pass basic training. They have up to 90 days to complete the program.

“This is by far the best program the Army has made for recruits,” said Willis, who has sent three prospects to the course. Most of the high school seniors recruiters talk to now were freshmen or sophomores during the pandemic. They lost valuable learning time and struggle to pass the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery without the extra help the preparatory course offers.

On average, aspiring soldiers who take the course increase their aptitude scores 18.5 percent. The Army considers the program so successful it opened a second academic track at Fort Moore, Ga., in February and plans to push 10,000 recruits through both locations before October.

The Navy launched its own Future Sailor Preparatory Course in April for recruits who are up to 6 percentage points above the military’s body-­composition ­standards but meet other requirements.

“The individuals who are participating have a sincere desire to serve their country,” said Rear Adm. Jennifer Couture, commander of the Naval Service Training Command. “This course is about connecting their desire to serve with an opportunity to meet our standards while receiving life-skills training which will serve them throughout their career.”

As a former military policeman, Freeman is used to assessing people. Now he’s looking for students who appear sad, like the New Braunfels kid whose face prompted Freeman to ask if he was doing all right. Freeman is mindful of the waiver process required if an applicant has ever taken antidepressants.

“Between medication and the anxiety and depression epidemic that we have going on right now and all the medications required, that’s been one of my bigger hurdles as far as recruiting people that are otherwise qualified in every other single aspect,” McKinney said. Unless the Air Force takes ADD medication off the waiver list, McKinney doesn’t think he’ll be able to boost his recruiting numbers.

And prescription medication isn’t the only problem. More than 50 percent of all recruits come from states where marijuana is now legal, at least for medicinal use, so all services are granting more waivers for drug use. According to a RAND Corporation study, “recruits who make it into the U.S. Army despite low-level histories of marijuana use perform no worse, overall, than other soldiers.”

As societal norms change, the services have adapted their standards in other ways to cast a wider net. The Army and Air Force now allow tattoos on hands and the back of the neck, areas historically associated with gangs and shunned by the military. Air Force officials estimate this and the body-­composition change could lead to an additional 2,500 recruits annually.

Along with updating standards, the military is throwing cash at recruits to entice them to join. The Army is offering generous active duty enlistment bonuses up to $40,000 for hard-to-fill jobs like infantry, intelligence analysts, military police, and cyber operators. Recruits who agree to start basic training within 30 days of enlisting can receive up to $50,000 in bonuses. The Air Force is also offering bonuses up to $40,000 for high-demand jobs, and this spring it reinstated a program that pays off up to $65,000 in college loans. The Navy is offering incentives of up to $115,000 for recruits who will leave for boot camp before August.

All of these changes help, but McKinney still leans heavily on his own experience as he talks to prospects: “I believe in the product; I believe in the Air Force.”