The Super Tuesday shakeout

It has become annoying to be asked who I support in the primaries. At some point it’s like asking which way you would like the sea to surge. You just stand on the shore and behold the movement of events. And the sea will churn on Tuesday when 12 states hold either presidential primaries or caucuses, and hopes will be dashed on the rock-hard numbers.

Ted Cruz must win the Texas Republican primary tomorrow for any hope of continuing in the race. But even then his home state may only wipe away his tears as Donald Trump piles up delegates. Given how Cruz has positioned himself since joining the Senate in 2013, he has premised his route to the White House on the support of evangelicals, constitutional conservatives, and anti-government discontents. But he has had to split the evangelicals with Marco Rubio, Ben Carson and, surprisingly, Trump, who took 34 percent of the evangelical vote in South Carolina and 41 percent in Nevada. The anti-establishment vote has also gone largely to Trump. Cruz’s voter pool is fished out, so he has no upward potential from his third-place finishes in the last two contests.

Rubio has the broadest appeal for the general election, being young and aspirational, Hispanic but thoroughly American, and he is monopolizing the endorsements. But Rubio must win his home state of Florida, a winner-take-all contest on March 15. After his Nevada defeat, Rubio seemed dispirited, though he regained his cheer and found his fight in last Thursday’s debate. He has two weeks to fell the giant.

Otherwise, Trump seems on track for the GOP nomination. As rivals dropped out of the race, he picked up support, even from Jeb Bush’s camp, as he will eventually from John Kasich’s supporters. Republican voters know Trump is the least conservative and least Christian but support him for his candor and the expectation he can win in November—although he trails in most polls when matched with Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton. Politics is full of surprises, however. Keep an eye on the Trump University lawsuit, the tax return issue, and the Ku Klux Klan controversy.

On the Democratic side, after a scary start, Clinton regained her footing and her confidence with her respectable win in Nevada. South Carolina’s landslide victory Saturday was no surprise and presages what will surely be her triumphal march through the Southern states supported by constituencies highly in debt to the Democratic establishment.

Her nomination seems secure apart from the increasing likelihood she will face federal prosecution over her mishandling of national secrets, a topic on which her opponent, Bernie Sanders, is strangely silent. But “likelihood” depends on the politically untainted integrity of our criminal justice system at that level. FBI Director James Comey is said to be a public servant of the highest honor, but his boss doesn’t share that reputation.

It is an interesting two-stage electoral process we have with the primaries and the general election. In reality, the first stage involves very few people choosing who will appear on the final ballot in November. So if you like the thought of having two votes in selecting the next president of the United States and live in one of the primary or caucus states coming up in the next two weeks, you will have that opportunity.