The return of security moms

Colorado resident Kristin Johnson names healthcare, Ebola, and marijuana legalization as important issues in the 2014 election, but she says foreign policy is more than important—it’s personal. Johnson’s son and daughter-in-law were missionaries in eastern Ukraine until the State Department evacuated them earlier this year amid Russian aggression in the region. “Putin is taking such advantage of our indifference,” said Johnson, 55, who regularly traveled to Ukraine with her husband before the unrest. “I’m disappointed the administration has not made it more of a priority.”

Johnson’s personal story is unusual, but her concerns are not: As countries on nearly every continent experience some kind of deadly chaos, national security and foreign policy are among the most important voter issues for the first time since the 2002 and 2004 elections—when “security moms” carried Republicans to victory. Following the publicized beheadings of two American journalists in August and September, a Pew Research survey found 78 percent of Americans were either somewhat or very concerned about the rise of Islamic extremism in the United States. An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed 47 percent—a plurality—believe the country is less safe than before 9/11.

Those numbers are affecting races as Republicans try to add to their 34-seat House majority and win at least six seats to take control of the Senate. It’s hard to say how many votes may actually swing on security issues, but at the very least it provides more wind beneath Republican wings and creates one more problem for Democrats who are desperate to distance themselves from an unpopular president.

In North Carolina, Republican Thom Tillis made national security a cornerstone of his October television barrage against incumbent Sen. Kay Hagan. Tillis rolled out an ad featuring an Air Force veteran frustrated with “the president’s weakness” and attacked Hagan for missing half of all Senate Armed Services Committee hearings: “While ISIS grew, Obama kept waiting—and Kay Hagan kept quiet,” one ad said. “The price for their failure is danger.” Hagan responded by presenting an Iraq War veteran’s wife who said she trusted Hagan to represent the best interests of military families.

In Colorado, Republican Rep. Cory Gardner overtook Democratic Sen. Mark Udall in September polling—the same time national security rose in significance. Gardner hit Udall for his tepid response to Islamic State savagery in the Middle East and cited a Colorado woman who in September pleaded guilty to aiding ISIS. “The only person who doesn’t believe [ISIS] is an imminent threat is Mark Udall,” Gardner told The Denver Post.

Udall, a member of the Intelligence and Armed Services committees who voted against the Iraq War, acknowledged the Islamic State as a “serious” threat, but said it wasn’t yet a danger to the United States. During a debate Udall said Steven Sotloff and James Foley, the two beheaded Americans, would urge the United States not to be impulsive. He later apologized for the comment. (See “Independents’ Day” in this issue.)

No single member of Congress, especially a new one, is going to play a major role in U.S. foreign policy, but the resurgence of security concerns underscores an important point: The majority of Americans disapprove of the way President Obama has handled world affairs, and they want a change. That means even candidates for obscure House seats have developed talking points and op-eds designed to assure voters they would protect the homeland. Retired Air Force Lt. Col. Wendy Rogers, running for Congress in Arizona, even aired a commercial that opens with the scene of an Islamic State militant about to behead Foley.

Some said the Arizona ad was out of bounds, but Oklahomans might disagree: In late September, Alton Nolen, an ex-con who converted to Islam while incarcerated, allegedly beheaded a woman and injured another at a food processing plant outside Oklahoma City. Rep. James Lankford, a Republican running for U.S. Senate in Oklahoma, told me foreign policy issues are now “far and away” the top concern of voters in the state. He said in January occasional foreign policy questions were about how long the U.S. engagement in Afghanistan might last, but in October voters are thinking about Iraq, Syria, and terrorism threats at home and abroad: “If we can’t keep Americans safe, the other stuff doesn’t matter.”

Americans are concerned with other threats. The West Africa Ebola outbreak has stoked fears of a stateside epidemic and the sense that the world is spinning out of control. On immigration, candidates are not discussing immigrant work permits as much as border security and the potential threat of a terrorist attack.

Back in Colorado, Kristin Johnson is acutely aware that security issues aren’t going away. After her missionary children moved to Uganda from Ukraine, Ugandan authorities in September foiled a terror plot by the Islamic group al-Shabaab, an al-Qaeda affiliate trying to avenge the death of its leader in U.S. airstrikes. That’s part of the reason she has a Cory Gardner sign in her front yard: “I trust a conservative would respond more appropriately on national security than a liberal.”

Election night suspense

Alaska: Currently Democrat. Mark Begich (D) vs. Dan Sullivan (R). A mid-August primary gave Sullivan little time to unite the party against Begich, who has served six nondescript years after winning an odd 2008 election in a deep red state. Buoyed by a controversial ad Begich later pulled, Sullivan took a modest but consistent polling lead into the campaign’s final month. Expected result: leans Republican.

Arkansas: Currently Democrat. Mark Pryor (D) vs. Tom Cotton (R). The conservative Cotton, a Harvard Law School graduate who fought in Iraq and Afghanistan, is tailor-made to take out Pryor, a Democrat representing a deep red state. As the race progressed into October, Cotton’s biggest weakness, his perceived stiffness on the campaign trail, became less of an issue, and Pryor’s battle against Obama’s 31 percent Arkansas approval rating became a bigger one. Expected result: leans Republican.

Colorado: Currently Democrat. Mark Udall (D) vs. Cory Gardner (R). Expected result: toss-up.

Georgia: Currently Republican. Michelle Nunn (D) vs. David Perdue (R). Expected result: leans Republican.

Iowa: Currently Democrat. Bruce Braley (D) vs. Joni Ernst (R). Expected result: leans Republican.

Kansas: Currently Republican. Greg Orman (I) vs. Pat Roberts (R). Expected result: toss-up.

Kentucky: Currently Republican. Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) vs. Mitch McConnell (R). Expected result: leans Republican.

Louisiana: Currently Democrat. Mary Landrieu (D) vs. Bill Cassidy (R) and Rob Maness (R). Another Democrat running in a deep red state, incumbent Landrieu will blame President Obama’s unpopularity if she loses, but her biggest blows have been self-inflicted: Landrieu has faced dogged criticism (and a lawsuit) over her residency and in September repaid $33,727 for campaign flights she made at taxpayer expense. She ousted her campaign manager less than a month before Election Day. If neither Landrieu nor Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy receives a majority of the votes, Cassidy will be in good position to win a December runoff. Expected result: leans Republican.

Michigan: Currently Democrat. Gary Peters (D) vs. Terri Lynn Land (R). Although Republican hopes of retaking the Senate don’t hinge on Michigan, Land managed an early lead in the left-leaning state—before minor gaffes put Peters in the driver’s seat to replace six-term Democratic Sen. Carl Levin. Land, Michigan’s former secretary of state, will need to win big among the 15-plus percent of undecided voters to pull off an upset. Expected result: leans Democrat.

Montana: Currently Democrat. Amanda Curtis (D) vs. Steve Daines (R). Expected result: likely Republican.

New Hampshire: Currently Democrat. Jeanne Shaheen (D) vs. Scott Brown (R). Shaheen, New Hampshire’s former governor, has used her personal popularity to maintain modest leads in almost every poll against Brown, a former senator who has focused his campaign on economic issues. Brown’s best path to victory involves tying Shaheen to Obama, and if he is successful, it likely signals a wave election for Republicans. Expected result: leans Democrat.

North Carolina: Currently Democrat. Kay Hagan (D) vs. Thom Tillis (R). Expected result: leans Democrat.

South Dakota: Currently Democrat.Rick Weiland (D) vs. Larry Pressler (I) vs. Mike Rounds (R). Expected result: leans Republican.

West Virginia: Currently Democrat. Natalie Tennant (D) vs. Shelley Moore Capito (R). Expected result: likely Republican.

Timeline of troubling events

Jan. 3: ISIS militants take over Fallujah, declare an Islamic state.

Jan. 7: President Obama refers to ISIS as “a JV team” in an interview with The New Yorker.

May 10: Michelle Obama uses president’s weekly radio address to condemn Boko Haram’s kidnapping of almost 300 Nigerian schoolgirls. The girls were never found, and the increased scrutiny led to criticism over administration passivity toward Boko Haram.

June: Thousands of unaccompanied Central American minors continue to arrive in the U.S. A media frenzy stokes fears of terrorists crossing the Southern border and reveals administration inaction when warned of surge in 2012.

June: ISIS militants take control in Tikrit and Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city, and eventually capture a swath of territory the size of Great Britain.

July 17: Pro-Russian rebels in Ukraine shoot down Malaysia Flight 17, killing all 298 persons on board.

July 26: The State Department evacuates 150 personnel from the U.S. Embassy in Tripoli, Libya, as Islamic militants battle for control—three years after a U.S.-led coalition toppled dictator Muammar Gaddafi, destabilizing the country.

Aug. 19: ISIS releases video showing beheading of U.S. journalist James Foley.

Sept. 2: ISIS releases video showing beheading of U.S. journalist Steven Sotloff.

Sept. 26: Obama acknowledges U.S. underestimated ISIS.

Sept. 26: Alton Nolen, a Muslim who had been trying to convert his co-workers, allegedly beheaded a Moore, Okla., food processing plant employee and repeatedly stabbed another worker.