May October come early

May 1, five; May 2, three; May 3, zero; May 4, zero; May 5, zero; May 6, two; May 7, zero. That was the tally of U.S. casualties in Iraq. May became the lowest month for U.S. casualties in Iraq since February 2004, when there were 20. Last month 21 U.S. soldiers were killed-17 in hostile fire, three from non-hostile injuries, one when he was struck by a hit-and-run driver in Chicago while on leave from Iraq. One year ago the Pentagon reported 127 casualties in the month of May. April figures were 52 in 2008 compared with 104 one year ago.

This is good news that refreshes war-weary bones. When those in authority learn from their mistakes and change course, as the Bush administration did 18 months ago, we prosper. Let us pause and thank God for our fighting men and women who today are alive because Robert Gates took over the Pentagon in December 2006, in January named Gen. David Petraeus commander in Iraq, and embraced a troop surge and new fighting tactics that have brought security to once-hostile sections of Baghdad and elsewhere.

Good war generals worry most when victory seems nearest. Long odds encourage long chances. Lee was most dangerous when he was most cornered, Grant knew, and Grant said the eight-month siege of the Confederate capital that eventually led to the surrender at Appomattox was perhaps his "most anxious" time of the war. "I was afraid, every morning, that I would awake from my sleep to hear that Lee had gone," he wrote. As Lee's army bled, it became lighter, faster, more desperate-so too al-Qaeda.

Sinister forces remain in Iraq. Yet as President Bush met in May with Iraqi leaders during the World Economic Forum, I harbored hope that one of the things on the agenda was bringing the war to a close. At a later speech to the 82nd Airborne Division gathered for review at Fort Bragg, the president was explicit, laying out four conditions for "success in Iraq":

The president acknowledged "tough fighting ahead" and cautioned against "withdrawal from Iraq before we have achieved success." But look at the ways the four-point test already is being met:

On Oct. 31, 1968, President Lyndon Johnson halted bombing over North Vietnam, an obvious bid to pitch the election Hubert Humphrey's way. Nixon followed suit in 1972, with his secretary of state, Henry Kissinger, announcing "peace at hand" on reelection eve-and the traditional "October surprise" was born. Let us in this election year continue the tradition. May it come early. And may it prove lasting.

If you have a question or comment for Mindy Belz, send it to mbelz@worldmag.com.