Is the West breaking up?

The U.S. relationship with Europe is not “whistling past the graveyard,” according to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte—even though everyone has “a knot in their stomach” about its future.

That reassurance came after an April 8 closed-door meeting at the White House that Rutte described as “very frank.” Afterward, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social: “NATO wasn’t there when we needed them, and they won’t be there if we need them again. Remember Greenland, that big, poorly run, piece of ice!!!”

The testy exchange reflects deepening mistrust between Washington and its European allies. Even before the Iran war, a YouGov poll conducted in six major European countries found that public opinion of the United States has plummeted during Trump’s presidency. More than half of respondents said they believed the United States posed a significant threat to Europe, with some assessing the danger higher than that posed by China, Iran, or North Korea.

It’s a stark reversal on a continent that once embraced the United States as its closest ally. But Europe’s stance on the Iran conflict has revealed potentially insurmountable cracks in the once-solid alliance. Experts warn this conflict could push Europe to draw a harder line in future negotiations over joint U.S. ventures.

“[Trump] is constantly attacking his friends and seems more comfortable with the U.S.’s traditional adversaries,” said Edmund Fitton-Brown, a former British diplomat. “The option of just [giving] him what he wants when he wants it—that doesn’t work for Trump, because he just comes straight back and asks for the rest. So you’ve got to be very clear about what your national interests are.”

On Feb. 28, Trump unleashed a surprise attack on Iran. The conflict quickly spread to other Middle Eastern nations. The president repeatedly asked the Europeans to support U.S. operations, saying they too would benefit from a defanged Iran. But his calls were effectively brushed aside. The United Kingdom did deploy a lone destroyer to protect its own bases, but the ship almost immediately docked for repairs and never reached the Middle East. Even a ceasefire announced in early April met with little fanfare. “The government of Spain will not applaud those who set the world on fire just because they show up with a bucket,” Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said.

From the Europeans’ perspective, Trump’s demands for military assistance seemed to ignore the wartime pressures already at their doorstep. Since 2022, when Russia first launched its invasion into Ukraine, Europe has faced a costly influx of immigrants, occasional spats with eastern neighbors, and concerns for the security of its own borders.

“What do you do if Russia defeats Ukraine, turns its attention to the Baltic states, and Trump turns around and says, ‘I don’t care, because what did NATO ever do for me’?” asked Fitton-Brown. “Can NATO function without the United States?”

The energy crisis from Russia’s invasion remains fresh in European public memory. Back then, record-­shattering heat waves and high oil and gas prices contributed to an estimated 68,000 civilian deaths. After Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz at the end of February, average prices for standard gasoline in the European Union rose to 1.82 euros per liter (about $8.07 per gallon)—11% above the prewar February average, and only slightly below the three-month average following the Russian attacks. Natural gas, used for heating and electricity generation, saw even steeper price increases.

Trump vowed to reopen the strait and implemented a reverse blockade in April, trapping the Iranian fleet and its oil shipments in the Persian Gulf. British and French officials denied his requests for military aid. Still, they worried Trump might not keep his promise, since the United States has less of a financial stake in the waterway. Nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through the strait, but virtually none of that cargo reaches North America.

“You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post at the end of March. “The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!”

But oil isn’t Europe’s only problem. Leaders also worry over potential terror attacks. Government officials and media outlets warned of travel risks after the war started, but Sumantra Maitra, founder of CLIO Strategic Consulting and a fellow at the Royal Historical Society, said Europe has little to fear from Iranian terrorists.

“The Europeans are a party to this conflict, but overall, they have kept it hidden, and they haven’t really mentioned it much in public,” Maitra said, referring to limited military support several countries have given the U.S. “So the Iranians don’t really have a casus belli to go and have a conflict with the Europeans.”

Maitra also noted Shiite Muslims in Iran don’t have a history of terror attacks in Europe. Most of those have come at the hands of Sunni Muslims.

News outlets in Europe have repeatedly observed that Iran might have the missile capability to reach its shores, while the United States remains out of range. These fears intensified after Iran reportedly launched two missiles at a U.S.-U.K. joint base in the Indian Ocean, demonstrating a possible range of more than 2,300 miles. Although neither missile reached its target, analysts said that could put European capitals as far away as London within striking distance.

But Maitra said those fears are overblown. “The Iranians can do a lot more damage by retaliating just in normal structural ways, by barring European ships from traveling and getting more money from them, than actually doing a terrorist attack.”

So far, daily life in Europe has seen little change, said William Moore, an American who retired in France 20 years ago and has since operated a bed-and-breakfast there. But with tourist season about to begin, Moore said many French businessmen worry about how safety concerns will affect visitors this summer—and local profits.

“In France, the overall feeling is a mistrust of President Trump,” Moore said. “Obviously, there’s recognition of the fact that there was an enemy [in Iran], and he’s been there for years, and President Trump was interested in getting rid of the enemy for the rest of the world. But I think there’s growing resentment [of] the American president and [of] what’s happening. I think we’ve lost sight of the fact that there was danger.”

Trump’s rift with Europe has fueled international speculation that the U.S. might withdraw from NATO, leaving Europe to address its own security concerns without U.S. aid. Such a decision would require congressional approval thanks to a Biden-era law. Sumantra Maitra called that unlikely. Trump has often complained that the U.S. underwrote international security on its own dime, while Mark Rutte of NATO said Europe has already assumed a greater and fairer share of defense expenses.

There’s little indication that Trump wants to smooth things over. But even if he did, it might be too late to sway European sentiment.

“What you can’t do is just roll over every time Trump tells you to,” Fitton-Brown said.