Iowa basics

OTTUMWA, Iowa—The first Pizza Ranch opened in northwest Iowa 33 years ago. Today the cowboy-themed buffet has over 180 branches and is most popular for two things you wouldn’t guess from its name: fried chicken and politics.

One fall evening before the November midterm elections, about 25 local residents crowded into a private room at a Pizza Ranch in Ottumwa. Inside, Bob Vander Plaats, a former candidate for governor of Iowa and president of The Family Leader, a Christian values group, dished out slices of supreme, cheese, meat, and veggie pizza before giving a pep talk about supporting biblical values in politics. Afterward, a Republican candidate for state treasurer described his spiritual journey to the potential voters in the room.

The Pizza Ranch chain, whose vision statement is “To glorify God by positively impacting the world,” is a go-to place for political meet-and-greets in Iowa. Mike Huckabee visited Pizza Ranches across the state when he ran for president in 2008, and other candidates followed his example. With the 2014 midterms over and 2016 on the horizon, Pizza Ranches and other small venues in Iowa can expect an upsurge of customers hungry for political change in the White House. And smart candidates will be there to meet them.

“A town of 3,000 people might have the next president of the United States serving pizza,” said Greg Baker, a grassroots director at The Family Leader. “Iowans ultimately demand that hands get shaken, and all their questions answered. … Iowans are spoiled.”

As the state with the earliest caucus (scheduled for Feb. 1, 2016), Iowa is one of the first places presidential hopefuls go to gauge voter interest. That makes it a great place to learn, unofficially, who’s thinking about lacing up their White House racing shoes. In theory, the more support Iowans show a potential candidate, the more likely he or she will be to run.

So, who’s popular in Iowa?

Ask Iowa Democrats their favorite candidate, and the most common name you’ll hear is Hillary Clinton. In an October poll from The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics, 53 percent of Iowa Democrats said Hillary Clinton would be their first pick as a presidential candidate (10 percent chose Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, the poll’s second most strongly supported candidate).

Clinton has said she won’t decide about a presidential bid until after Jan. 1. Yet she’s widely seen as preparing for a race: She quit her job as President Obama’s secretary of state in early 2013, wrote a memoir, began what The Wire called a “NeverEnding Book Tour,” criticized Obama’s foreign policy, and made 45 stops in 19 states to support campaigns and fundraisers before the midterms. If that doesn’t smell like a presidential campaign appetizer, nothing does.

Some have speculated Iowa has a “woman problem,” and by extension, a “Hillary problem.” Iowa has never elected a female governor or sent a female representative or—until this year—senator to Washington. In 2008 Hillary Clinton lost the Iowa caucus to John Edwards and a little-known Illinois senator named Barack Obama. Her campaign never recovered.

However, the November elections this year, in which Iowans elected Republican Joni Ernst as their next senator (with strong support from male voters), seem to have debunked the idea Iowans will not support a female candidate.

And although Clinton didn’t connect well with Iowans in 2008 (because she didn’t visit enough small towns, some say), she may know what to do differently this time.

“It’s the retail politics. It’s getting out there and meeting as many people one-on-one as she can,” said Sean Bagniewski, an attorney in Des Moines who campaigned for Clinton in 2008. At a time when many Americans are frustrated with Obama’s foreign policy record, Bagniewski believes Clinton’s experience as secretary of state will play to her advantage.

“I think she understands America’s role in the world better than any other candidate out there,” he said. “She’s not a doubter of American exceptionalism. She’s not a doubter of the need for a strong military.”

Not to say Clinton doesn’t have detractors in her party. “She’s got so many ties to Wall Street. … Hillary only comes into town when she wants something,” says Brenda Brink, a resident of Huxley who volunteers for the grassroots Ready for Warren campaign. “Elizabeth Warren speaks for the people. … It’s the people who are still being held down and need a hand up.”

The field seems wide open for Clinton, though: Warren has so far declined calls to run.

We may have a problem,” Vander Plaats told me at a Pizza Ranch corner table when I asked about conservative candidates for 2016. “And that is there are too many good ones. Huckabee: Obviously, Iowans still love Huckabee. Ted Cruz: They love Ted Cruz. Rick Perry’s got his mojo back.” Vander Plaats listed off Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul. “They’re all coming out.”

Indeed they are. Joni Ernst’s high-profile Senate race this year gave presidential speculators like former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio a convenient opportunity to offer their endorsements on Iowa soil. Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, neurosurgeon Ben Carson, and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie also have visited Iowa in recent months, either campaigning for Republican candidates or speaking at conservative events and fundraisers.

In contrast to broad Democratic support for Clinton, Republicans in Iowa are broadly splintered over whom they’d prefer to send to the White House. In the Des Moines Register poll, more Republicans named Mitt Romney as their first choice—17 percent—than any other candidate, even though Romney claims he isn’t running. Other respondents in the survey split their support among more than a dozen other conservative figures, starting with Carson, Paul, and Huckabee.

While that suggests Iowa Republicans are unsure who is best suited to carry their torch in 2016, it doesn’t mean some haven’t already picked favorites.

Michelle Fetters Steen, who lives outside Indianola, supports Ben Carson. “I feel like he’s honest,” said Steen, who first heard of Carson when he criticized Obamacare at the National Prayer Breakfast last year (while Obama sat about five feet away). Steen said Carson has courage and overcame a disadvantaged background without a “woe-is-me attitude.”

‘We know that establishment candidates cannot win the presidency. Ask presidents Dole, McCain, Romney. They can’t win.’

—Conservative talk show host Steve Deace

Randy Davis, a chalk artist from Ottumwa, wants Mike Huckabee to jump in. “I even have relatives who are staunch Democrats, and they would vote for him in a heartbeat.” He views Huckabee, a Fox News television host, as someone who can work with Democrats without compromising his principles, and believes he’d be articulate and charming in debates.

During the state convention in June, Will Rogers, the chairman of the Republican Party of Polk County, which covers Des Moines, had lunch with several other Republicans. They were “extremely excited,” Rogers said, after they heard a speech from Rand Paul, whose father, Ron Paul, won 21 percent of Republican votes in the 2012 Iowa caucus.

“I think Rand Paul has a lot of interest from establishment Republicans right now because they feel that they can trust him,” Rogers said. “And also because they think he can manage a winning coalition of Republicans,” including tea party and libertarian-minded conservatives.

Many grassroots conservatives haven’t settled and are still open to hearing from all the candidates. Vander Plaats said conservatives will need to coalesce around one soon, or they’ll end up with another candidate chosen by the “establishment.”

“We know that establishment candidates cannot win the presidency,” Steve Deace, a conservative talk show host in Des Moines, told me. “Ask presidents Dole, McCain, Romney. They can’t win.”

Deace said the grass roots in Iowa are tired of losing: “I really think this time around it’s going to be a vetting process unlike any other. … Who can show that they are capable of rallying the conservative base, and beating the establishment in a primary? That’s who I’m going to support.”