Groundhog Day: Middle East version

In the film Groundhog Day, Bill Murray wakes up each morning and relives the previous day.

A similar scenario is playing out in the Middle East between Israel and her enemies. The deadly "movie" always goes like this: Israel is shelled or attacked by terrorists groups, often called "militants" by the media, each one with the same goal: Israel's elimination. After demonstrating considerable restraint of the kind that would never be tolerated by any other nation, Israel fires back.

In the run-up to confrontation, it has been reported that Hamas placed weaponry among civilians, hoping that when Israeli airstrikes started they could show photos of dead children, bringing condemnation on Israel. What's more, according to Breitbart.com, "Hamas has a well-established pattern of faking civilian deaths in Gaza, even as it seeks civilian deaths in Israel." American and foreign TV networks—particularly CNN and BBC— are then brought in to channel the Palestinian line, portraying Israel as the aggressor.

And so the process replays.

Bernard Lewis, the renowned scholar and expert on the history of Islam, was recently aboard a Post-Election Cruise sponsored by National Review magazine, as was I.

Lewis noted that the Cold War featured "mutual assured destruction" (MAD), which served as a deterrent for both the United States and the Soviet Union from using their nuclear weapons against each other. Lewis said for Islamic nations like Iran (which sponsors Hamas in Gaza), "MAD is not a deterrent, but an inducement." That's because, he said, the Iranian regime believes in the apocalyptic end of days in which the 12th Imam—the Islamic "messiah"—will emerge in the midst of a nuclear war with Israel and "save" humanity with Islam the surviving religion.

Lewis argues for regime change in Iran, but urges the West to be cautious in the way it goes about promoting it. Iran, he said, is a nation with a long and proud history. He believes the West must not "give Iran a patriotic excuse" it could use to ignite nationalist passions. Young Iranians "hate their rulers," Lewis said, and the message from the West, which should be conveyed to them via social media, should affirm Iran's ancient history and Persian roots. That history, he believes, can be used to overcome the religious fanatics now running the country.

Lewis, who has seen a lot in his nearly 100 years, believes the Middle East will become less important over time. The decline of Arab and Islamic nations, he thinks, will continue as the world discovers new sources for fossil fuels and alternatives to oil, the primary product these countries supply to the world. As income from oil declines, Lewis believes increased migration, mostly to Europe, but also to the United States, risks changing Western cultures. That could mean that Islamic domination could be achieved through immigration, not war.

In the meantime, Israel is faced with an existential threat, partially of its own making. I argued against the unilateral ceding of Gaza to the Palestinians. It didn't take a prophet to foresee terrorist groups using Gaza to launch attacks against Israeli civilians. If Israel invades Gaza again, there will be more pictures of dead civilians. But even if a ground effort is successful and Hamas is partially or entirely neutralized, that won't solve the problem.

New terrorists will arrive. The cycle of war will repeat. It's a real-life Groundhog Day.

© 2012 Tribune Media Services Inc.