George Friedman’s world tour

After George Friedman—founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures—talked with me about Russia, China, and the presidential election, I asked him for short comments about other countries and regions, including Afghanistan and Iraq.

Germany? People are paying attention to Brexit or other exit attempts but the big danger spot is Germany. Germany exports 50 percent of what it produces, and exports are declining. For every 5 percent decline of exports, there’s a 2.5 percent decline in GDP, and that probably represents several hundred thousand unemployed. In the 1920s, Germany had massive economic dysfunction because of an irrational dependence on exports, followed by unemployment, followed by the emergence of very strange right-wing and left-wing parties. In the recent Berlin elections, five parties competed. The top party got 21 percent and the bottom got 14 percent. This is political fragmentation.

Israel? Israel is a small and weak country at the height of its power. The Egyptians and Jordanians are neutral or pro-Israeli. Syria is in decline. It can’t get better. The normal thing is to negotiate from the position of strength. The worst thing is to assume that your current situation is eternal.

Africa? Tanzania, Kenya, and Ethiopia (which, unfortunately, is plunging into a small civil war) are showing signs of development. Africa needs South Africa with its white population and its black population to pull together.

South America? Economic possibilities in countries like Peru and Colombia are high, and Brazil is seeing some recovery.

India? India is an empire the British created of many different countries. No single declarative sentence defines India.

Has the Taliban pretty much taken over Afghanistan again? The big cities are not in their hands, but the countryside is, and it has a major push under way that I think will carry it over the top

At that point, what does the United States do? What it did in Vietnam: nothing. Nobody ever conquered Afghanistan. Alexander the Great, the British, the Russians didn’t conquer it, and we’re not going to. Going there to dislocate Osama bin Laden was a perfectly good idea. Building democracy in Afghanistan was demented.

Was the whole attempt to try to build democracy in the Middle East demented? It would be like them coming here to make us Muslims. We are different. It is not a small world after all. It’s one thing to wage war to achieve a particular end. It is a very different thing to wage war to make everybody look like they’re living in Wisconsin.

Was our emphasis on “democracy” misplaced? It’s always hard to define what we mean by democracy. Iran is a democracy, with elections and competing parties. “Democracy” is not enough. There has to be a moral foundation other than whatever the majority wants. The Islamic world has a moral foundation. They gave it up for 60, 70 years where they tried to be secular. They are recovering it. They know who they are—and they are not us.

What is the historical significance of ISIS? It’s the first nation-state that is genuinely Islamic and has nothing to do with the borders that Europe invented. The important question: What will the Turks do with ISIS? Whenever the Middle East is peaceful it’s under the domination of the Turks, and they are considering their options regarding ISIS. It’s a wonderful time for the United States not to get caught between ancient forces.