From prison to presidency

Tiago Albrecht, a theologian in the southern city of Porto Alegre, Brazil, offered words of dismay after his country’s presidential runoff election on Oct. 30. During the Sunday vote, Brazilians returned the presidency to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a political fixture and the country’s former leader. Until November 2019, “Lula,” as he is known, had been serving a 12-year prison sentence for corruption.

“I don’t know what to say to my children,” said Albrecht. “The people have elected a thief.”

Lula’s election represents a shift toward the political left, not only for Brazil but for Latin America as a whole. When Lula takes office on Jan. 1, all five of Latin America’s largest economies—Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, Chile—will have left-wing governments. Brazil’s leftward turn is particularly significant because it is the region’s largest and most populous country.

Although Lula’s victory signaled a rejection of the conservative politics of incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro, it came via the slimmest of margins, with Lula taking 50.9 percent of the vote compared with 49.1 percent for his opponent. Bolsonaro, who has drawn comparisons to former U.S. President Donald Trump, is known for defending traditional family values and opposing COVID-19 shutdowns. Lula’s first presidency was a time of prosperity for Brazil, but many Brazilians now mistrust him due to the ­scandals that have tainted his tenure.

Lula, 77, has been a major figure in Brazil for decades. He rose to national prominence in the 1970s as a trade union leader and Marxist firebrand. He ran unsuccessfully for president in 1989, 1994, and 1998, finally winning in 2002 after he toned down his Marxist rhetoric and published a letter promising to respect private property. He served two terms and left office with an 80 percent approval rating. But then in 2018, Lula was convicted and imprisoned in connection with a massive corruption scandal called “Operação Lava Jato” (Operation Car Wash). However, he was released after 18 months when the Brazilian Supreme Court quashed his conviction on technical grounds.

Many Brazilian voters still believe Lula is guilty. “Personally I feel ashamed to see a politician who has been arrested return to the presidency,” says Allan Antonio, a lawyer in São Paulo. Some also saw his campaign as being helped by the Superior Electoral Court, which governs election advertisements and prohibited Bolsonaro’s campaign from running ads using the words “corrupt” or “thief” in reference to Lula, saying that violated the constitutional presumption of innocence.

Will Lula return to his Marxist roots? Leonardo Boff, a well-known Brazilian liberation theologian, said in June that Lula—a personal friend—told him, “This is my last chance in life to make a great revolution. I will do it because after that I will be too old.”

Such statements scare Brazilians who saw the disaster in Venezuela under socialist President Nicolás Maduro and worry their country might be next. “I fear what is to come in the next years,” says Samuel Kultz, a graduate student in São Paulo. “I have economical concerns. There are allies of the Workers’ Party right now governing Argentina, Venezuela, Colombia, Bolivia, Cuba, and that doesn’t give a very good sign to the economic policies that are going to be enacted in Brazil.”

Lula will be hard-pressed to make “a great revolution” even if he wants to. Opposition parties hold a substantial majority in the Brazilian Congress. During his first presidency, Lula’s party was found paying bribes to opposition parties to vote for its legislation. Several of Lula’s closest advisers went to prison over that scandal, dubbed “Mensalão” (Big Monthly Payment). He’ll have to find alternate ways to win congressional support this time.

The new president’s most pressing order of business will be tackling Brazil’s post-COVID-19 economic slump. To date, Lula has divulged few specifics about his plans for the country. His campaign centered on nostalgia for the good times of his previous presidency. However, those years coincided with a boom in global commodity prices that bolstered Brazil’s economy. Also, his predecessor, President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, had put the country’s public finances on a solid footing. This allowed Lula to spend generously on social welfare programs. For his third term, he inherits a financial mess. Inflation has ranged from 7 to 12 percent this year. Also, over 90 percent of the government’s budget consists of mandatory spending such as pensions, leaving him little space to innovate. He has yet to prove how he would navigate a presidency with ­serious economic headwinds.

Lula faces serious challenges returning to leadership. But from prison to presidency, he has proven time and again his ability to overcome the political odds.