Foundational problems?

The American press, pundits, and partisans have been predicting cracks in President Donald Trump’s base of support since 2016. First, it was the Access Hollywood tape. Then it was Supreme Court picks. Then it was killing Iran’s Qasem Soleimani. Then it was the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riots. Now it is Venezuela and Iran.

Through all of it, MAGA’s crackup remains overstated.

During the past month, Trump has lost support online. Social media has become a swamp of disinformation and misinformation coupled with a podcast class that hitched its wagon to Trump and is now moving on. The war in Iran is the breaking point for the podcast class. That has given the press incentive to, yet again, assure America that the president is losing his base. But the online world is not reality.

“Iran war creates growing cracks within Trump’s MAGA movement,” blared a PBS headline for a Liz Landers interview with Curt Mills of The American Conservative. Mills claimed a mantle of leadership within the MAGA movement and now feels betrayed. But he is no more MAGA than former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, who is now favorably hosted by media outlets like CNN. Where once those outlets criticized her, they now use her to criticize the president.

The data suggests, contrary to the podcasters and pundits, that the president and his base are united against Iran.

NBC News’ March polling showed a majority of Americans are opposed to the military engagement in Iran. But the polling also found, “a full 90% of self-identified MAGA-aligned Republicans back the strikes, with just 5% saying they don’t think they should have been launched.” Only 54% of Republicans who don’t see themselves as part of MAGA support the strikes.

A CNN poll conducted the same week found similar results. On March 20, Politico’s polling found that 81% of the president’s self-described MAGA voters trust him and 70% of his 2024 voters support him. Five days later, a Fox News poll found MAGA support for the Iran strike at 90%.

Most telling is the straw poll of activists at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Dallas at the end of March. CPAC has become a clown show of attention seekers, grifters, and other nonsense, but it still attracts a faithful MAGA following. On stage, former Rep. Matt Gaetz and former Trump adviser Steve Bannon voiced their concerns and opposition to the Iran engagement. Even so, the crowd packed in to hear from Reza Palavi, the would-be shah of Iran.

CPAC’s annual straw poll offered some seemingly surprising results: 88% of attendees thought “conservative leaders/influencers are creating unnecessary controversy and division in the MAGA movement”; 85% believed “Israel continues to be one of the United States’ most important strategic allies”; and 89% approved of “President Donald Trump’s decision to use military force in Iran.” While CPAC is pretty meaningless in all things conservatism, it is an accurate barometer of the president’s base. Its polling also suggests the “MAGA crackup” narrative is overstated.

So what is really going on? Social media influencers and others are jockeying for position in 2028. They are the loudest voices and many used Trump for their own aggrandizement. The president will soon be a lame duck, and these people are looking for a new bandwagon to climb aboard.

However, with a ceasefire in place and Iran in, arguably, a better position than before the war began through more exploitative control of the Strait of Hormuz, we may begin to see the base actually fracture between those who want to finish the job and those who want to ignore the problem.

The bigger problem for the president are the Republican and independent voters who supported him in 2024, but are not his natural constituency. Polling suggests most of them are happy with his foreign policy, but unhappy with his economic policies. From tariffs to running roughshod over allies, these voters prefer him to the alternative, but they may not show up in the midterms. They want some accountability for the president, even if it means Democrats take control in Congress. But that is not a MAGA crack-up. That is the historic nature of midterm elections.

Trump remains a transcendent politician but the rules of politics still apply. Midterms tend to benefit the party out of power, not because the president’s base has abandoned him, but because the party out of power is more motivated to vote and the president’s voters who are not actually his strongest supporters tend to stay home.

—Erick Erickson is a WORLD Opinions contributor and hosts the Erick Erickson Show broadcast nationwide