End of a downturn?

A decades-long decline in the number of Americans identifying as Christian seems to have finally leveled out. A new study from the Pew Research Center found that just over 6 out of 10 U.S. adults say they are Christians—and the rate has remained relatively unchanged for five years.

Pew’s Religious Landscape Study is the polling organization’s largest survey, with nearly 37,000 respondents. In its first such survey, conducted in 2007, researchers found that 78% of U.S. adults identified as Christians. That number declined precipitously to 63% by 2019.

With the rate relatively stable since then, some experts say religious affiliation in America may have reached a new normal. Others, though, are hopeful that renewed interest in faith could spark a rebound in Christianity.

According to the newly released 2023-2024 edition of Pew’s report, membership has declined in Catholi­cism and in every major strand of Protestantism since 2007. Among respondents, 7.1% identify as a religion other than Christian, up from 4.7% in 2007. At the same time, the portion of those who are religiously unaffiliated—often called “nones”—has nearly doubled, rising from 16% in 2007 to 29% in 2023-2024.

Christian Smith, a University of Notre Dame professor of sociology and author of the book Why Religion Went Obsolete, said several factors have converged in recent decades to drive the growth of the nones. The digital revolution, demanding work culture, church scandals, and a focus on science as the sole source of truth have helped push younger generations away from traditional faith, he said.

At the same time, Smith noted, many Americans have turned to broader spirituality. Nearly 80% of Pew respondents said they believe in a spiritual world, and 70% believe in an afterlife. Smith pointed to a rise in cultural reenchantment with spiritualism through New Age practices, belief in the paranormal, interest in Eastern religions, and alternative healing methods.

Younger generations are less likely to identify with formal religion than older adults. Less than half of Pew survey participants ages 18 to 24 identified as Christian, compared with 80% of those aged 74 and older.

Still, the rise of the nones has leveled off since 2020. That gives some observers hope that a renewed interest in Christianity may be brewing.

Although research on church attendance trends among young adults is mixed, Bryan Chapell, ­former president of Covenant Theological Seminary, said anecdotally he’s seen more millennials—those in their late 20s to early 40s—returning to services in the years after the pandemic.

“What brought the Millennials back is most likely their concern for their children,” Chapell said in an email. High rates of sexual confusion, loneliness, and depression among youth have driven many parents to seek a source of consistent truth that can give their families stability, direction, and hope, he said.

Church leaders have pointed to recent movements like the one at Asbury University in 2023 as evidence that young people are still seeking God. In addition, a report from book tracker Circana BookScan found that Bible sales rose 22% by the end of the last fiscal year. Circana analyst Brenna Connor suggested the uptick signals a growing interest in Christianity and a desire among Americans for community.

For churches to reach a modern society, Chapell said, they must demonstrate that Biblical truth and Christian values “provide personal fulfillment, family cohesion, community care, and peace among nations in ways that liberal secularism could never deliver.”