Cloudy outlook

Executives of midsize U.S. companies are committed to maintaining or expanding their operations in 2025, but they’re pretty skeptical about the nation’s economy, according to a survey released June 25. Of the more than 700 respondents in J.P. Morgan’s midyear Business Leaders Outlook Pulse, only about 30% said they were optimistic about the U.S. economy. The confidence level of ­leaders from companies with annual revenue between $20 million and $500 million has fallen by half from six months ago.

What’s likely behind the sagging sentiments: economic uncertainty, market volatility, reduced consumer confidence and spending, and mixed jobs numbers. Nonfarm employment increased by 147,000 in June, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released July 3, but that increase just kept pace with the average total for the past 12 months. Most of the job gains were not in revenue-generating companies but in state and local governments. The unemployment rate remains relatively steady (4.1% in June), but the Labor Department said the nearly 2 million adults who remained unemployed after their first claim in June was the highest number since 2021. And according to an alternate, payroll data–based survey from ADP Research Institute, private-sector employees cut 33,000 jobs in June, suggesting a slowing economy.

Midsize businesses account for about one-third of private sector revenue and jobs in the United States, according to the JPMorganChase Institute. If President Donald Trump plays more hardball in trade wars and tariff negotiations and the Federal Reserve continues to delay interest rate cuts, business owners may slow production and new hires in the fall, making it harder for out-of-work Americans to find jobs.

Despite the country’s cooling labor market, slowed domestic production after three modestly positive years, declines in consumer spending, and thin profit margins, most execs surveyed were optimistic about their own companies and expected their revenue and sales to remain steady or increase.

Getting by with fewer bosses

Managers who lament they’re working “eight days a week” might not be imagining things. Small and midsize companies are asking their middle managers to supervise more workers as they deal with rising labor costs, according to a Gusto study of nationwide employment and payroll data released June 30.

Small and midsize businesses have downsized since 2022, halving the number of new managers hired and tripling the number laid off, according to the report. Managers in companies with 500 employees or less now typically supervise six employees—double the number reported in 2022. Blue-collar and service industry supervisors and those at midsize companies (100 to 499 employees) saw the greatest increase, about 45%, in the number of employees supervised in the past three years.

Managers in information and professional service positions, what are often known as white-collar jobs, supervise on average four employees, while hospitality, arts and entertainment, and recreation managers typically supervise 12 people. The seasonal and part-time nature of the hospitality and food service industry contributes to the imbalance. —T.V.