Brazil lurches leftward

Brazil took a sharp left turn politically on Sunday when Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won the country’s presidential runoff election by the slimmest of margins. Lula took 50.9 percent of the vote while incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro won 49.1 percent.

The two candidates offered Brazilian voters a clear choice between divergent visions. Bolsonaro, sometimes nicknamed the “Brazilian Donald Trump,” positioned himself as a defender of traditional values. Meanwhile Lula—as he is universally known—touted his support for abortion as a “universal right.” Supporters waved rainbow flags at his campaign rallies along with the red flags Brazilians use to show support for Lula’s Workers’ Party.

Lula’s swearing in as president is scheduled for Jan. 1. His most pressing order of business will be tackling Brazil’s post-COVID-19 economic slump. “Our most urgent commitment is to end hunger again,” he told supporters during his victory speech Sunday night. “We cannot accept as normal that millions of men, women, and children in this country have nothing to eat, or who consume fewer calories and proteins than necessary.”

Lula has been one of the most prominent figures in Brazilian politics for decades. He rose to national prominence in the 1970s as a trade union leader and Marxist firebrand. He ran unsuccessfully for president in 1989, 1994, and 1998, finally winning in 2002 after he toned down his Marxist rhetoric and published a letter promising to respect private property. He served two terms and left office with an 80 percent approval rating.

But after that, the Brazilian political scene was rocked by “Operacão Lava Jato” (Operation Car Wash), a massive corruption scandal. Many of the alleged crimes took place during Lula’s presidency. Lula himself was charged with taking bribes from major construction companies in the form of a luxury beachfront apartment and free renovation work on a country house.

Lula had hoped to run for president again in 2018. The Brazilian Constitution only limits a president to two consecutive terms. Instead he was convicted and sent to prison, clearing the way for Bolsonaro’s ascendancy. The tables turned again for Lula in March 2021 when the Brazilian Supreme Court vacated his conviction on technical grounds. He formally announced his candidacy in May 2022, but he began running unofficially the moment he exited prison doors.

For much of the campaign, opinion polls showed Lula with a substantial lead. But during the first round of the election on Oct. 2, he won by only a small margin. That ignited an already hot campaign into a political bonfire.

In Brazil, political election campaigns are overseen by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), which consists of seven appointed members. The TSE has the power to order broadcasters and social media platforms to remove content, and it can impose fines for noncompliance. Due to the inflammatory rhetoric used in this election cycle, TSE interventions reached unprecedented heights.

For example, the court prohibited Bolsonaro’s campaign from running ads that used the words “corrupt” or “thief” in reference to Lula, saying that violated the constitutional presumption of innocence. It banned an ad featuring a clip of a retired Brazilian Supreme Court justice saying that Lula was never exonerated in connection with Operation Car Wash. The TSE also sometimes sided with Bolsonaro, banning one of Lula’s ads that linked Bolsonaro to cannibalism. It also gave Bolsonaro the right to respond to Lula’s accusations that Bolsonaro has expressed support for abortion in the past.

To date, Lula has divulged few specifics about his plans for the country. His previous presidency coincided with a boom in global commodity prices that bolstered Brazil’s economy, allowing him to spend generously on social welfare programs. This will be his first tenure as president facing serious economic headwinds.

Political realities will limit Lula’s ability to act: Opposition parties hold a substantial majority in the Brazilian Congress. During his first presidency, Lula’s party was found paying bribes to opposition parties to vote for its legislation. Several of Lula’s closest advisers went to prison over that scandal, dubbed “Mensalão” (Big Monthly Payments). He’ll have to find alternate ways to win congressional support this time.

But Lula has proven time and again—over decades—that he can overcome challenges. Reviving Brazil’s ailing economy, should he succeed in doing so, would be a big accomplishment indeed.