What's behind delayed Nigerian elections?

Nigerian officials have postponed the country’s Feb. 14 presidential elections to give the nation’s military six weeks to accomplish a task it’s botched for six years: conquering Boko Haram.

Less than a week before Nigerians were set to vote in a tight presidential contest, military chiefs appointed by President Goodluck Jonathan said they couldn’t spare enough soldiers to protect polling places across the country of 170 million people.

The reason: Soldiers are busy wiping out Islamist terror group Boko Haram, and they need six weeks to finish the job.

It’s a surprising claim in a country where Boko Haram militants have butchered civilians, torched churches, razed homes, and seized control of growing swaths of northern Nigeria for years. In many cases, Nigerian soldiers have fled their posts as militants declared an Islamist caliphate and obliterated whole towns.

Nigerian officials denied postponing elections to give the incumbent president time to regain momentum in Nigeria’s closest presidential contest since military rule ended in 1999. Jonathan also denied ordering the delay, and said the postponement wasn’t “a big deal.”

Jonathan has faced intense criticism in recent months for his ineffectiveness in battling Boko Haram. After militants kidnapped more than 300 Nigerian schoolgirls in Chibok in April, the president didn’t respond publicly for more than three weeks. Most of the girls remain missing.

Another crisis erupted in January, as Boko Haram militants stormed the town of Baga. Early reports suggested the death toll could reach 2,000, though many believe hundreds died in the massacre. (Final estimates still aren’t available since Boko Haram remains in control of the area.)

As the massacre unfolded, Jonathan expressed his condolences to Parisians for the Islamist attack on the editorial offices of satirical weekly Charlie Hebdo, but didn’t mention the Baga invasion.

When he visited refugees in the city of Maiduguri a week later, the president promised thousands they could return to Baga soon, but didn’t offer specifics for defeating the militants who drove them out. Meanwhile, insurgents launched a suicide bombing in a crowded Maiduguri market using a little girl.

The Baga attacks did galvanize surrounding countries: The nations of Chad, Cameroon, Benin, and Niger agreed to amass a force of 8,700 soldiers to battle the insurgents spilling across Nigeria’s borders. The Nigerian government announced it would join the regional efforts to battle Boko Haram and quell the insurgency.

A serious confrontation with Boko Haram would mark progress for the Nigerian military, but it’s doubtful they can finish such a task in six weeks. If the clashes continue as March 28 elections approach, the contests could face delays again.

Jonathan’s opponents criticized the election delay, saying it gives the president time to regroup. Others say his opponent, Muhammadu Buhari, may run out of funds and momentum over the next six weeks.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry also criticized the postponement: “It is critical that the government not use security concerns as a pretext for impeding the democratic process.”

Even if elections move forward in March, substantial dangers remain: After the election of Jonathan—a Christian from Nigeria’s south—in 2011, Muslim rioters killed dozens of Christians, torched police stations, and destroyed homes, churches, and businesses.

Meanwhile, Boko Haram militants seemed unfazed by the growing effort to dismantle the terror campaign that has killed thousands over the last decade. In a recent online video, Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau taunted the regional forces: “Your alliance will not achieve anything. Amass all your weapons and face us. We welcome you.”