Military exercises evoke Cold-War tension in Eastern Europe

Hundreds of U.S. military combat vehicles and dozens of fighter aircraft have been arriving in the tiny Baltic nations of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania—formerly satellite states of the Soviet Union and now members of NATO—for a months-long series of training exercises designed to reassure nervous NATO allies after Russia’s military intervention in the Ukraine.

But what may be reassuring to many in the Baltic, who remember decades of Soviet occupation, is seen as a direct threat in Moscow, prompting an increase in Russian military activity in the region and setting the stage for a Cold War-style standoff. The increased tension raises the specter that either side could misinterpret a move by the other, triggering a conflict between the two powers.

“A dangerous game of military brinkmanship is now being played in Europe,” said Ian Kearns, director of the European Leadership Network, a London-based think-tank. “If one commander or one pilot makes a mistake or a bad decision in this situation, we may have casualties and a high-stakes cycle of escalation that is difficult to stop.”

Fourteen F-16 jets and 300 personnel from the 510th Fighter Squadron, normally based in Aviano, Italy, are in Estonia conducting a month-long live fire exercise along with Swedish and Finnish air forces. Russia sees the location, just 60 miles from its border, as a direct provocation.

“It takes F-16 fighters just a few minutes to reach St. Petersburg,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich said, referring to the major Russian port city on the Baltic Sea. He expressed concern that the ongoing exercise could herald plans to “permanently deploy strike aircraft capable of carrying nuclear weapons at the Russian border.”

Perhaps in response to a perceived increase in NATO activity in Eastern Europe, Russia has substantially increased its own military activity in the Baltic Sea region over the past year, prompting complaints of airspace violations in Estonia, Finland, and Sweden.

Last week, U.S. defense officials revealed that on April 7, a Russian Su-27 jet fighter flew dangerously close to and nearly collided with a U.S. reconnaissance aircraft flying in international airspace over the Baltic Sea.

As of October 2014, NATO had already conducted more than 100 intercepts of Russian aircraft, three times more than in 2013, according to a report by the European Leadership Network.

The Washington Free Beacon reported the most recent similar encounter took place March 24 when two Su-27s, along with two nuclear-capable Tu-22 Backfire bombers, conducted flights over the Baltic. The Russian jets were flying without signal beacon transponders that permit air traffic controllers to monitor their flight paths. They were intercepted by Swedish jets.

Eric Edelman, a former undersecretary of defense and ambassador to Finland, said the latest incident appears to be part of a pattern of provocative activities by Russia that began around 2007 when Russian President Vladimir Putin began protesting U.S. missile defenses in Europe.

“It’s ‘station identification’ and a form of intimidation, and it’s dangerous,” Edelman said. “Sometime something bad is going to happen, particularly against the backdrop of what’s going on in the Ukraine, and it could lead to inadvertent escalation and confrontation. It’s very dangerous.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.