A forecast for Tuesday's GOP primaries

Last Thursday I interviewed Henry Olsen, the Ethics and Public Policy scholar who is one of the top analysts of American voting patterns. We’ll run more from the interview later this spring, but here’s Olsen’s forecast for tomorrow’s two Republican primaries. (I wonder if GOP front-runner Donald Trump purposely insulted Mitt Romney before a Utah audience last week, receiving boos in the process, so Trump could say he lost Utah because he’s honest.)

Arizona and Utah primaries on Tuesday. Who will win? Utah should be an easy victory for Ted Cruz. Utah is a Mormon state, and we saw in the Idaho primary that counties with 70 to 90 percent Mormon population voted very heavily for Cruz and very much against Trump. Cruz will win with more than 50 percent of the vote and he will get 40 delegates.

Arizona? A classic Trump state. A high degree of immigration creates social anxiety. Trump got early backing from the former governor, Jan Brewer. She knows what her state is like.

Trump always mentions the sheriff. Joe Arpaio is the tough law and order anti-immigrant sheriff. Arizona got wiped out in the real estate crash, so you have economic anxiety and social anxiety. I would expect Trump to win this by 10 to 15 points. If he wins by anything less than 10, it’s a sign of weakness going forward as opposed to strength.

So the press reports on Wednesday will be, “Cruz wins one state. Trump wins one state.” On it goes? Right. The press will also note that there were 98 delegates at play between the two states, and Trump will win 58 and Cruz will win 40, which means Trump gains ground in his quest for a majority.