What’s next for Gaza?

MYRNA BROWN, HOST: It’s Thursday the 26th of September.

Glad to have you along for today’s edition of The World and Everything in It. Good morning, I’m Myrna Brown.

LINDSAY MAST, HOST: And I’m Lindsay Mast.

First up, what’s next in Gaza?

It’s nearly one year since Hamas attacked Israel and massacred nearly 1200 people. Israel is now waging war against terrorist organizations on multiple fronts.

Meanwhile, countries across the Middle East and the West are drawing up proposals for what’s next in Gaza

BROWN: But here’s the problem: No good options exist. And when it comes to the least bad option, Palestinians and Israelis have found few points of agreement.

WORLD’s Jill Nelson spoke with experts from Palestinian and Israeli backgrounds. She brings this report.

SOUND: GAZA GUNFIRE OR MISSILE LAUNCHES

JILL NELSON: For the past year, Israel has been bombarding Hamas’ military network in Gaza. Sources inside Israel say that mission is far from over.

But international bodies are pressuring the country’s leadership to decide now who will govern in place of Hamas.

MICHAEL MILSHTEIN: I think that there are several alternatives, but all of them are bad.

Michael Milshtein is a retired Israeli army colonel and former head of Palestinian Affairs for military intelligence in Israel. He says there are five options for temporary governance of Gaza.

The first involves Israel reoccupying the coastal enclave it left in 2005. Milshtein says this would require the deployment of four or five divisions. But these troops are urgently needed in the north to address the growing threat from Hezbollah on the Lebanese border.

And this option has another problem:

MILSHTEIN: All the international players, and mainly the American administration, say one big no to Israel regarding this idea of reoccupation of Gaza.

Option number two: Israel would fully occupy every corner of Gaza, eliminating Hamas’ capabilities, then withdraw. Milshtein says this too, is a bad idea.

MILSHTEIN: A vacuum would be created in Gaza, a vacuum that will be filled by even more crazy guys than Hamas–all kinds of ISIS-style organizations.

The third option is gaining traction in Washington: The Palestinian Authority, or PA, takes back control of Gaza. It ruled the coastal enclave for two years prior to Hamas taking over. It currently governs parts of the West Bank. That’s a separate territory in Israel with 3 million Palestinians.

Ghaith al-Omari is an expert on Arab and Islamic politics at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He favors this proposal as long as reform benchmarks are tied to the PA’s transition to power. The benchmarks would include stopping martyr payments and replacing school textbooks that call for Israel’s extermination.

GHAITH AL-OMARI: You do have to have an international coalition that goes to the PA and say, “You have no exit ramps. You either reform or you're cut off.” Pressure has to be exerted. To be honest, this time, I'm actually much more optimistic than I was during Bush.

Al-Omari served as a Palestinian Authority official in the 1990s. That’s when the George W. Bush administration insisted on reform benchmarks for Palestinian leadership.

He said he witnessed many positive changes in the organization, but the measures stalled because they copied Western reform models.

AL-OMARI: What works in France doesn't necessarily work in the Arab world.

He explains why he is more optimistic today:

AL-OMARI: Today, there are successful models of reform and institution building in the Arab world that are culturally appropriate. Go to the United Arab Emirates and look at what they have done with their education system, in terms of building a national ethos that is less based on grievance and much more based on a forward-looking entrepreneurial mindset.

However, the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reluctant to hand over Gaza to the PA. Milshtein explains:

MILSHTEIN: The PA today, they are too weak and too corrupted. They barely control the northern parts of Judea and Samaria, of the West Bank, in Janine, Tulkara, and places like that, they do not control it all. So you don't really expect them to take control over 2 million people who really hate them.

Recent polls show the vast majority of Palestinians distrust the PA and its political arm Fatah. Corruption is rampant.

Hamas has already moved into parts of the West Bank where the PA has failed to effectively govern. Milshtein believes reform would take many years.

Option four involves Arab forces deploying to Gaza. But Arab leaders have little appetite for policing Palestinians and facing accusations of collaborating with Israel. And this plan would require fast tracking Palestinian statehood–a nonstarter for Israelis in the wake of last year’s brutal attack.

That leaves one final proposal—the one Milshtein recommends:

MILSHTEIN: The least worst alternative is Israel will support local administration, like the provisional government that the Americans established in Iraq in 2003, after the collapse of Saddam's regime. It will be based on local leaders like Fatah members, mayors, heads of professional unions.

But al-Omari is skeptical of this option:

AL-OMARI: What Palestinians are looking for is not only a government that delivers services, they're also looking for a government that has a political plan and agenda. And that plan and agenda has to do with Palestinian self-determination and ultimately, Palestinian independence.

And al-Omari believes both the PA and Hamas will threaten any Palestinians who attempt to govern.

AL-OMARI: I think neither of them will allow someone to come and seize the space, especially if that someone is seen as being anointed by Israel.

One thing both al-Omari and Milshtein agree on: Israel will not be able to fully eliminate Hamas in the near term and should wind down its full-scale war in Gaza. Civilian casualties are in the tens of thousands.

Milshtein says ending the offensive comes at a cost, but he believes it’s time to pivot to an even greater threat than Hamas.

MILSHTEIN: It’s still better from my point of view, because we must concentrate on the Iranian issue.

Iranian proxy groups like Hamas are security threats for Israel, but Iran achieving nuclear weapons capability creates an existential threat for the country. And Milshtein believes prolonging Israel’s wars of attrition will push moderate Arab states away from Israel instead of strengthening the anti-Iran axis in the Middle East.

Reporting for WORLD, I’m Jill Nelson.

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