Washington Wednesday: Trump’s polling lead is growing

NICK EICHER, HOST: It’s Wednesday the 26th of July, 2023.

Glad to have you along for today’s edition of The World and Everything in It. Good morning, I’m Nick Eicher.

MARY REICHARD, HOST: And I’m Mary Reichard.

It is Washington Wednesday once again, and today we’ll take an updated look at the race for the GOP presidential nomination. And we’ll start with what the polls are saying.

Former President Donald Trump maintains a commanding lead. In an average of recent polls, he’s just over 50%.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is in second place, hovering just under 20%.

No one else is even close to double digits at the moment. But former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie says he’s not discouraged.

CHRIS CHRISTIE: He is the former incumbent president. So of course before anybody runs any kind of real campaign, that’s where the numbers are going to be. And if they weren’t there, all the stories would also be about Donald Trump not performing as well as someone who’s been elected president should do.

Christie right now is polling around 3%, and that puts him just behind South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley.

HALEY: I think I’ve done over 30 events in New Hampshire, over 25 events in Iowa. We just did another event in South Carolina. We’re not doing rallies and leaving. We’re going and we’re making sure we’re doing town halls, answering every question, shaking every hand, touching every person. We’ve got a country to save.

EICHER: Just ahead of Haley in the polls are former Vice President Mike Pence and political newcomer Vivek Ramaswamey. He’s in a virtual tie with Pence for third place, but it is a distant third at about five-and-a-half percent.

Joining us now to break down the current state of the GOP race is political strategist Matt Klink.

REICHARD: Matt, good morning!

MATT KLINK: Hey good morning Mary, how are you doing?

REICHARD: Doing well. Let’s start with Gov. Christie’s point. Early polling tends to favor the better-known candidate, obviously that is former President Trump. But if someone were to close the distance, when is that likely to happen and how?

KLINK: Mary, the Republican primaries really haven't even begun yet. The first debate is on August the 23rd. Right now, I think that six or seven candidates have qualified based on the criteria that the Republican National Committee sets. And that really is a first opportunity for, for people to look at the candidates in person and all on the same stage. What Christie did say was that after that first performance, that first debate, that if candidates are still in the, you know, 1% or below range, they need to bow out because they don't have a path to victory. And in many cases, he's right. The biggest obstacle that the Republican field faces is that Donald Trump is well known. And Donald Trump wants as many Republican candidates in the race as possible, because each of them will take their little sliver of the vote. And collectively, if you add up all those slivers, it's a big percentage of the Republican base. So Donald Trump hopes that as many people dip their toe in the water as possible, and every other Republican candidate hopes that if candidates have no shot of victory, that they drop out quickly, to let those who can go person to person with Donald Trump, duke it out to find the best nominee for the party.

REICHARD: Trump has suggested that he might skip the first Republican debate on Fox News a month from now. Looking at it objectively, does that make sense for Trump given his big lead at the moment?

KLINK: Why would Donald Trump, exactly I mean, why would Donald Trump want to subject himself to everyone's, you know, animosity and jibes and poking and argument when he is ahead by 30+ points over everyone? It's just I mean, look, we remember we don't vote for president based on what the national polls say. It's a series of individual states. And the first three states, Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, Donald Trump is ahead handily in all three. Why would he want to give these, you know, these very, very far behind challengers, any oxygen at all to try to overtake him in the polls? My guess is that he skips he'll wait until much later in the process. And then he'll only debate in person if he has to. He's going to try to run this as an incumbent Republican president would and try to limit competition with with the also-rans who are so far behind.

REICHARD: Let’s talk about the criminal indictments of Trump. Is this actually helping him in the GOP race?

KLINK: This is just the perplexing part of everything that surrounds Donald Trump. You know, we've used the word unprecedented more times with Donald Trump's presidency and candidacy than probably any other presidential candidate or president in the history of this country. Every court case that has come out against Donald Trump so far has not brought about his demise. It's crystallized his support. And there is a big concern among Republican insiders on Capitol Hill, that these charges are not having their intended effect of turning people off, at least Republicans off. The challenge, though, Republicans alone can't give Donald Trump the presidency. They need independent voters. And that is a still a humongous problem for Donald Trump. Not so much in the primary, but certainly for a general election.

REICHARD: Governor Ron DeSantis was supposed to be the guy to give Trump a run for his money. And maybe he still will, as you say it's early, but six months ago, only about 15 points separated the Santas from Trump in the polls. And now Trump's edge over the governor has doubled. Matt, how do you see the DeSantis campaign so far? And what would be your advice to him if you were advising him?

KLINK: Ron DeSantis's campaign has clearly struggled. On a positive note, if you're going to struggle in a campaign struggle early and fix the machine so that it runs smoothly later. So Governor DeSantis [has has] has not plenty of time, he has time and he has enough money to quote unquote, right what's wrong with his campaign? But you're right Mary, he is definitely struggling. He has failed to really galvanize a base of support, and other candidates, you know, Vivek Ramaswamy and some of the other you know, Tim Scott, and others, they're they're nipping at his heels, as Donald Trump is just continuing to climb and climb and climb. So Ron DeSantis needs to figure it out quickly. He still is, he is in a solid second place, but he he could barely see the back of Donald Trump. He's so far behind.

REICHARD: All right. Well, let's talk now about the hypothetical general election polls. The numbers there have shifted as well, a month ago, an average of polls showed Trump leading President Biden and now the polls give Biden a slight edge against Trump and an edge over DeSantis as well. DeSantis could argue of course, that the country just doesn't know him yet. Matt, what do you make of Biden's edge in the general election polls at the moment?

KLINK: The the polls right now are more directional than anything that you should stick a pin on a map and say, this is definitely it. They're gonna fluctuate back and forth. You know, inflation is still high, although it is dropping. Interest rates continue to be a problem. Joe Biden has some inherent weaknesses for an incumbent president of any party, that you know, are going to be problematic. But what Joe Biden wants is one thing: he wants to run against Donald Trump, who is more polarizing, and likely more unpopular than any other political figure right now running for president. The Biden camp believes that they have beaten Donald Trump once and they believe that they can beat him again.

REICHARD: You mentioned Vivek Ramaswamy earlier. He's caught up with former Vice President Mike Pence in the polls, as we mentioned, what does Ramaswamy have to do to keep his momentum going?

KLINK: Talk about probably one of the greatest campaign stories to date of election 2024. This, you know, young, very, very quick witted candidate is running for President of the United States with a first and last name that are ... he's no, Bob Smith, put it that way. And he is just capturing the moment everywhere he speaks, people are drawn to him. He's optimistic. He knows what he's talking about. He's not afraid to take difficult positions. What he's going to have to do, though, eventually, is if you want to take out the front runner, you've got to start attacking the front runner. And Vivek Ramaswamy, like everyone else, for some reason, they are reluctant to go after Donald Trump, with the glaring exception being Governor Chris Christie. And the only way Donald Trump is going to be beaten is not by ignoring him. It's by going after him and trying to braise his negatives even more and get more and more people on an even footing with him so they can debate person to person. And no one has done that yet, including Ramaswamy.

REICHARD: All right, Matt Klink with Klink Campaigns has been our guest, Matt, thanks so much.

KLINK: Thank you, anytime.

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