Washington Wednesday - Performative diplomacy?

NICK EICHER, HOST: It’s Wednesday, the 1st day of December, 2021.

Thanks for joining us for today’s edition of The World and Everything in It. Good morning, I’m Nick Eicher.

MARY REICHARD, HOST: And I’m Mary Reichard.

Up first: reigning in Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

Former President Trump pulled out of the Iran nuclear agreement in 2018. But all of the other countries that signed onto that deal have not given up on reviving it.

On Monday, leaders from China, France, Germany, Russia, and the UK were back at the bargaining table in Vienna. But Iran didn’t come to bargain, instead demanding an end to sanctions before it will make any concessions.

President Biden has signaled a desire to rejoin the 2015 nuclear agreement, but right now the United States is not directly involved in those talks.

With Iran drawing a hard line, will there be any salvaging the nuclear deal? Should it be salvaged? And is the White House willing to bend?

EICHER: Joining us now is Robert Wilkie. He is former secretary of the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs. He also served as under secretary of defense for personnel and readiness under Defense Secretary James Mattis. And he is still a colonel in the air force reserve as well as a visiting fellow with the Heritage Foundation.

REICHARD: Mr. Secretary, good morning!

ROBERT WILKIE, GUEST: Good morning to you. Thank you for having me.

REICHARD: Take us back to the original nuclear deal. We’ll talk about your concerns with that deal in just a moment. But let me start with this: Iran is no longer cooperating with inspectors. What verification measures were in place in the original deal to ensure Iran’s compliance? And were inspectors able to verify that they were in compliance before the U.S. withdrew?

WILKIE: That is actually the threshold question. There were not verifiable rails, guardrails in place and I'll go through that. The Iranians insisted from day one, that there would be no access to military and paramilitary facilities—facilities controlled by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps—which meant that there were no anytime anywhere inspections. So we never knew at any time what the Iranians were doing. The second thing was that the original Obama agreement did not cover ballistic missiles. So that pipeline, that assembly line kept on going. So no anytime/anywhere inspections, no coverage of ballistic missiles, no references to Iran’s space program, which they are developing I would say in coordination with their Chinese and Russian friends. So it was what I call performative diplomacy, diplomacy for the cameras, and diplomacy for the faculty lounge, as opposed to the real world impact.

Now, the Biden administration and the Obama administration before it will say that it delayed the full production of Iranian nuclear weapons for 10 to 15 years. Well, two things. First of all, they don't know that. And two, that's a Faustian bargain that they entered into that in the meantime, we can push this off to somebody else's problem. Another component of this is that the Iranian nuclear program began to accelerate on January 20, 2021. That was when Mr. Biden came to office, because the very same people who brought you the deal in the first place are back. And that, in turn, has moved forward more rapidly since the debacle in Afghanistan. So we are not in a very strong position right now.

REICHARD: Performative diplomacy as you put it. So you would say the nuclear deal would not have prevented Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and that any new version of that deal won’t accomplish it, either. Elaborate more on that.

WILKIE: Let's take it at face value, what the Obama people said it would do. They never claimed that it would stop Iran's nuclear program. All they said was that we put it off for 10 to 15 years, leaving Iran free to expand its uranium enrichment program to an industrial scale that would facilitate that final run to nuclear capability. And that also includes the production of plutonium.

So how do we return to hard diplomacy?

Well, the first thing we do is that we don't talk to them unless they say—and they won't—that they reject the development of nuclear weapons. That means we refuse offhand to lift sanctions against the Iranians unless they agree to a stronger nuclear deal. We also refuse to reward them for their export of terrorism by lifting sanctions. And we, in the end, have to closely coordinate with our allies.

One of the great advances of the Trump administration that gets no play now is the coming together of the Arab nations and Israel, putting away centuries of hostility. Because, one, it's in their economic interest. And two, they have a common enemy.

So, the other thing that we need to do is to make sure that those nations have everything that they need to deter the Iranians. Because right now entering into negotiations where the Chinese and the Russians are buttressing the Iranians, the Iranians are the junior partner in this new axis of evil—to borrow George W. Bush's phrase—we are not going to get anywhere unless we are tough.

REICHARD: Mr. Secretary, some would say President Trump’s maximum pressure policy did not succeed. And Iran didn’t reverse course in any way—valid point or not?

WILKIE: Well, let's take a look at that. One, the Iranians were suffering. Their economy was going south fast. There was agitation in the streets. The mullahs were cracking down even more forcefully than they had. A message was sent when the second most powerful man in Iran, who was the the architect of Iran’s not only nuclear ambitions, but its terror network was killed. And in many respects, the Iranians were being knocked back by President Trump's actions against Hezbollah, and Iranian proxies throughout the Middle East.
So, again, you can negotiate, but if you don't negotiate from a position of strength, and right now, the Iranians are negotiating with an administration, that because of the multitude of failures, both at the national and international level, just wants a deal. They want a deal for a photo op. The Iranians know that. They're hardened players on the international stage. And they're going to wait until this administration cries uncle and comes to the table. And they also start handing over more money. The Trump administration stopped the flow of money that was going from Washington, to Tehran. The Iranians want that money back.

REICHARD: To clarify, President Biden has made clear that he wants to rejoin the nuclear agreement. Washington is involved in these talks, just not directly involved, is that right?

WILKIE: That's right. So far. But we know that there are back channel negotiations—as there always are—through Switzerland, through the EU. The Iranians have said they're not going to talk formally to Biden unless he lifts sanctions and returns monies that we have impounded.

REICHARD: Final question, how close is Iran to a nuclear weapon right now, as far as we can tell?

WILKIE: Well, I think they have accelerated since Biden came to office. Again, I do believe they were chastised by the death of Solemani. But we now know that they have increased their production of weapons grade plutonium by 20%. They need to get to 90%, which means they're advancing at a pretty good clip. So what Obama-Biden wanted to put off by 10 to 15 years, that day is coming more rapidly and it also makes the Middle East more combustible. And you've heard it from the Israeli Prime Minister Bennett yesterday, the Israelis are not going to wait. Particularly after the announcement from the spokesman for the Iranian defense ministry, who said that they're there their goal is to destroy Zionism and the Zionist state. Golda Meir famously said, If someone tells you he wants to kill you, believe him. The Israelis believe him but also the Gulf States believe what the Iranians are about, and that makes a Middle East without U.S. pressure on the Iranians a much more dangerous place.

REICHARD: We’ve been talking to former Veterans Affairs Secretary Robert Wilkie. Mr. Secretary, thanks so much!

WILKIE: Great pleasure. Thank you for having me.

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