Washington Wednesday: Midterm battles

MARY REICHARD, HOST: It’s Wednesday the 28th of September, 2022.

This is WORLD Radio and we thank you for listening. Good morning, I’m Mary Reichard.

NICK EICHER, HOST: And I’m Nick Eicher. It’s time for Washington Wednesday.

Midterm elections are now less than six weeks away.

Recent congressional opinion polls show Republicans with an edge as election day draws near. But polls over the past couple months also show a momentum shift toward Democrats in the battle for the Senate.

And joining us now to catch us up on the battle for control of Congress is Kyle Kondik. He is an elections analyst and director of communications at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

REICHARD: Kyle, good morning!

KYLE KONDIK, GUEST: Good morning!

REICHARD: Well, let’s start with the House. What’s the forecast?

KONDIK: Yeah, I think Republicans are still favored to flip the House. I think maybe we’ve lowered the ceiling a little bit on potential Republican gains. We had thought a net gain of somewhere in the 20s was sort of what we're looking at. We're probably more in the teens right now, although things are still, I think, in flux. And that's actually kind of a low, if that is indeed what happens, would be kind of a low total for an opposition party in a midterm. But one thing you also got to remember is that, you know, the Republicans won 213 House seats, which is pretty close to majority in 2020. And so back when the Republicans were winning 54 seats in 1994, and 64 in 2010, they were starting from a much lower total. They were at around 180 seats or so at that time. So, they're already in a pretty good place in the House. They only need to make a small net gain to actually flip the majority. Things have gotten better for Democrats, I think, particularly since the Dobbs abortion decision, which I think energized Democrats and might help them to some degree with swing voters. But if you look at the overall House playing field, a lot of the seats that seem to be most competitive and are attracting the most outside involvement from the parties and spending and that sort of thing, it's still a playing field that tilts very much towards seats that are currently held by Democrats. And the Republicans only really need to flip a handful of seats in order to win the House. So I still think the Republicans are in decent shape in the House.

REICHARD: What would you say are the top handful of races to watch in the battle for the House?

KONDIK: Yeah, there are several in which the presidential results in 2020 were pretty close to the national average. I’d say particularly the ones that maybe Biden carried, but by less than what he won nationally, which was about four, four and a half points. And I think you can look at some of the most important swing states and find some of the most important swing seats. So, right now, the race that's attracted the most outside spending is Michigan seven, which is held by Democrat Elissa Slotkin. It's a very narrowly won Biden seat that is now centered around the Michigan state capitol in Lansing. Dan Kildee another seat in Michigan. That's a very competitive district that runs a little bit north of the Lansing seat we were just talking about. There are a couple seats in Northeast Pennsylvania—Democrats Matt Cartwright and Susan Wild in pretty marginal seats. There are a number of House seats in and around Las Vegas, Nevada. In fact, three of the four seats in that state, those three all touch Las Vegas, and they're all pretty competitive. They're kind of narrowly Democratic leaning, but they've attracted a lot outside spending. And Nevada, of course, is another key swing state. So you know, look, there are dozens of at least potentially competitive House seats across the country. But you can find some in the states that are also hosting competitive Senate and gubernatorial races this year, and that were really competitive for President in 2020.

REICHARD: Now, as we mentioned, a few months ago, it looked likely that the GOP would reclaim control of the Senate, but that picture has shifted in recent months, correct?

KONDIK: Yeah, I mean, look, I think the race for the Senate is really close and competitive. I think that we've known that there were some challenges for Republicans that we've known about for months in advance. First of all, the map is not that great for Republicans. There are 35 seats being contested. Republicans are already defending 21 of them. And so just the imbalance in terms of the Senate seats up in a given year can sort of shed some light on what might happen. And so the Republicans do have to play some defense, including in states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that have looked like they would be competitive for a long time. Also, the Republicans opted to nominate a lot of candidates who don't have any formal elected experience, and in many cases, people who haven't even run for office. And so those are sort of some risky choices. And the Democratic fundraising has really been very strong, at least on the candidate side. But again, the change in the political environment has also had an impact on the Senate. And so if we were talking maybe three, four months ago, I probably would say, yeah, the race for the Senate is really close. But I think at the end of the day, you know, the Republicans will figure it out, basically, given that they only need to net one seat. Now I think it's more like a true kind of toss up where I'm not necessarily giving the benefit of the doubt for the Republicans. But I'd also say that for all of the kind of gloom and doom for Republican chances over the last couple of months, the Senate is still right there for the taking. I mean, there are plenty of competitive races and some opportunities for the Republicans to play offense. I think particularly Georgia and Nevada really stand out in that regard. Those are the two Senate races that we regard as toss ups. And you know, if Republicans can win both of those, they probably win the Senate majority. So, you know, there are other competitive races to talk about, but the Senate is 50-50 right now. So, you know, a net gain of one will do it for the Republicans.

REICHARD: So what would you say are the top-5 races to watch in the Senate now?

KONDIK: Yeah, besides Georgia and Nevada, which are two states that Democratic incumbents are defending and the two states that were narrowly won by Joe Biden in 2020. Pennsylvania is probably next on that list. Democrat John Fetterman, it's an open seat held by retiring Republican Pat Toomey. Fetterman seems to be leading TV Doctor Mehmet Oz, Republican nominee. But there's been some signs that that one is getting closer. You know, I think I sort of favor Fetterman at this point. But I don't think anyone should be shocked if Oz were to come back and win in that state. Arizona, a state that Democrats are defending. It looks like Democrat Mark Kelly is probably leading at this point. But it's still pretty close and competitive. And then I think that Republicans are defending North Carolina, Wisconsin and Ohio, I think Republicans are probably favored in all those states. But those races all seem very close and competitive. So if you sort of narrowed down to the seventh or eighth most competitive races, it's a mix of both Democratic and Republican held seats, which I think shows how kind of broadly competitive the race for the Senate is.

REICHARD: I had also heard some talk that Marco Rubio might be in some trouble in Florida, but it does look like he’s maintained a steady lead in the polls. How do you size up that race?

KONDIK: Yeah, the Democratic challenger there I think it's pretty strong. Val Demings, who's a U.S. House member and she has been a very good fundraiser and her and Rubio are basically it kind of like spending parity. And you might expect an incumbent like Rubio to have to have a money advantage. But Florida has, I think, trended more toward the Republicans in recent years. You know, it's not like some sort of landslide state for Republicans. But polling has generally shown Rubio with a little bit of a lead, and the polls have maybe underestimated Republicans in that state a little bit in the past few cycles. Doesn't mean it'll happen again, but I think there's a fair amount of confidence for Republicans that Rubio should end up being okay. And, of course, Governor Ron DeSantis, is also running for a second term. DeSantis seems to be doing a little bit better than Rubio. But it's probably unrealistic to think that anyone can really win like a big blowout in Florida these days. But I think the overall trajectory of both the Governor and Senate races is fine for Republicans in that state.

REICHARD: Steering out of Washington here for a moment, what about the gubernatorial races across the county? Is one party or the other in a strong position to make gains in November?

KONDIK: So, this is what’s interesting about governors is, so, midterm year, typically you'd expect the opposition party to net House seats, to net Senate seats, and to net governor seats. But this time, the two governorships that are likeliest to change hands are both blue states that currently have retiring Republican governors, Maryland and Massachusetts. Larry Hogan is retiring in Maryland, Charlie Baker is retiring in Massachusetts. And the Republicans have nominated some fairly hard-right candidates in both those states who are underfunded. And it seems like Democrats are very strongly favored to flip both of those states back to blue with the gubernatorial level. And so that gives the Democrats a couple of pickups at the start of the cycle. And then it's a question of whether Republicans can make gains of their own. Republicans do have a lot of offensive opportunities against Democratic incumbents in Wisconsin, Nevada, a Democratic incumbent in Kansas, which is typically a red state, but elected a Democratic governor in 2018. Blue State Oregon is featuring a three way race this cycle. And that is also a toss up, even though that's a Democratic-leaning state otherwise. Republicans are also defending an open seat toss up of their own in Arizona. So again, I think the Democrats start with a couple of pickups in their pocket and then we'll see how the rest of these races break out. But you know, the Republicans have some good opportunities of their own.

REICHARD: Kyle Kondik is with the University of Virginia Center for Politics. Kyle, thanks so much!

KONDIK: Thank you!

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