Washington Wednesday: A two-man race

NICK EICHER, HOST: It’s Wednesday, November 16th, 2022. You’re listening to WORLD Radio and we’re so glad you’ve joined us today! Good morning, I’m Nick Eicher.

MARY REICHARD, HOST: And I’m Mary Reichard. It’s Washington Wednesday.

The midterms have come and gone, although some outcomes are still not final.

Now the presidential election cycle is upon us with Donald Trump’s big announcement last night.

Not long ago, it seemed almost certain that if Trump chose to run again, he would be the GOP nominee. But his nomination no longer appears inevitable. Far from it.

EICHER: After last week’s midterm elections, new polls show that more Republicans prefer Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis over Trump.

A YouGov poll of 1,500 Republican and Republican-leaning respondents showed that 42% chose DeSantis, to 35% for Trump.

Joining us now to talk about it is John Stemberger. He is President of the Florida Family Policy council. He previously served as an advisor to state and presidential campaigns. And he was the Political Director of the Republican Party of Florida during the final campaign of former President George H.W. Bush.

REICHARD: John, good morning!

JOHN STEMBERGER, GUEST: Great to be with you, Mary.

REICHARD: Well, it’s unusual for a candidate to announce this early. Some speculate that the plan was for Trump to ride the momentum of the big red wave that was supposed to happen last week. But when that wave didn’t happen, he went forward with the early announcement anyway. Why do you think he chose to announce this early?

STEMBERGER: Well, if President Trump is anything, he is not a follower of conventional wisdom, and so let’s start there. He's his own man with his own strategy and his own mind that is both complex, and sometimes a mystery to all of us as to understanding why he does something a certain way. I think there's so much interest, I think, that the Governor DeSantis’s powerful results in Florida as part of that provocative motivation to get out early.  And I also think that he understands that momentum, political momentum can come in ebbs and flow. And so he wants to create momentum, because certainly the results of the election didn't do anything for him in terms of those he endorsed. And just his general advocacy may have actually brought everyone down. It's really hard to say what the cause of the results are—barring Florida's amazing results. So I think that it's really hard to know exactly what I think those are some of the factors involved with this decision to announce early.

REICHARD: Well, we mentioned the YouGov poll, but there’s more. I’ll summarize these very briefly:

A survey of likely GOP voters commissioned by the Club for Growth shows DeSantis up over Trump by double digits in early voting states Iowa and New Hampshire. And he’s up 20-plus point leads in Georgia and Florida.

And one more: A Texas Republican party poll has DeSantis up 11 points.

Do you think this is a temporary bounce for DeSantis after Florida’s red wave last week or something more?

STEMBERGER: You know, it’s really hard in politics to find people who are highly principled, and also gracious and collegial and know where the line is between personal insult and being combative on an issue. And I think that that's something that Governor DeSantis brings very uniquely. Normally, when you find a politician who's collegial and gracious, they kind of somehow lack the courage factor. And then those that have great courage, right, and are strong on the issues, they seem to lack grace and understand where the line is, and just attacking people and just how to present themselves in kind of a winsome way. But Governor DeSantis has a unique ability to do both of those things. And I think that's what the public's looking for. We're looking for all the courage and conviction of Donald Trump, but with somebody that's not going to have the same kind of bad tweet aftertaste, so to speak. So I think you're gonna see DeSantis grow in popularity and so this is a cause for concern probably for the president himself, and maybe they're one of the reasons why he jumped out earlier to try to make it clear to people in fact he is running and to leave that question answered, at least. Right now it's unanswered until he announces.

REICHARD: Let’s focus just on Florida, your home state. There we did see a red wave. Break down the Florida midterm results for us. What stood out to you the most?

STEMBERGER: Well, yeah, it was an amazing night for Republicans in Florida. We flipped three congressional seats from Democrat to Republican. There was a new seat that was created which was added to the Republican count. In the Senate, we gained four seats. In the state house we gained almost eight or nine seats depending on the results of one final election that hasn't come in yet. We gained all of the cabinet seats. There was one statewide Democrat that held. So it was kind of a clean sweep. Governor DeSantis with a commanding, like 20 point lead almost, which is really remarkable. That's never been done in Florida's history. So yeah, it's really remarkable. You know, if you look at that plus voter registration, we're now hundreds of thousands above Democrats in terms of the ratio of Republican to Democrat. So I think if you use those two things as factors, it does appear that Florida is now a red state and is no longer going to blink into the purple zone into the future. Whether or not we can hold that for a consistent amount of time will depend, I think, largely upon how we handle Latinos and Hispanic voters, and also women voters as well in the I-4 corridor.

REICHARD: Another challenge that faces Trump’s campaign is his ongoing legal trouble. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp just had to testify about alleged election interference by Trump and others.

And the Justice Department is still looking to prosecute him over the records seized from Mar-a-Lago.

But some theorize that an indictment might actually help Trump, that it could galvanize support behind him for what many may see as an unjust indictment. What are your thoughts on that?

STEMBERGER: These legal matters are interesting because they are either serious violations of law, or some people just say what? Come on, seriously? This is about documents,? And so people trivialize it on one hand, but on the other hand, they view it as serious violations of the law. But these matters are going to have a significant impact upon his ability to run. I mean, obviously, if he doesn't appear, and there's a contempt order for his arrest to come before Congress or to come for a court to give a deposition and makes you a political martyr. I think you could make him a very powerful force amongst his already fierce base that's already there. But I do think that many, many as I'm seeing just looking on Twitter, I'm seeing hundreds of former Trump supporters just saying you know what, we appreciate the president. We appreciate his contribution. He was a unique leader in a unique moment of time, but it's time for him to just step away. I think we're seeing that more and more with leaders, conservative leaders within the party.

REICHARD: What do you think he has going for him heading into the primary season?

STEMBERGER: Well, obviously the biggest thing he has is his base. I mean, these people are fiercely loyal. They love the president. They love his tenacious ability to withstand criticism. They love his ability to throw punches. We talk about taking off the gloves, I don't even think he’s ever put gloves on. He always keeps gloves off. And so it's always a bare knuckle fight with him. And so people like that. They like his ability to push against the media and to take those hits, and to really not be all concerned or fearful, and his ability to take on the establishment. I do think you'll find all those things, however, in also Ron DeSantis, as well. So that's going to be Trump's challenge is you can't paint DeSantis as an institutional guy. You can't paint him as being in bed with the establishment or anything like that, because he's clearly not. He's taken on corporate America, taken on Disney. He's really done some unprecedented things as governor. So I think that Trump's strength comes from his history. Certainly, pro-lifers have to say, look, if it wasn't for President Trump, we would not see the reversal of Roe vs. Wade. That is a really big deal. And so I think that's a huge advantage he has as well for those that are staunchly pro-life and are grateful for his leadership and the appointment of those justices.

REICHARD: Final question here, John. Besides Ron DeSantis, are there any other potential candidates with a real shot to challenge Trump for the nomination?

STEMBERGER: No, I think this race is between Trump and DeSantis. Obviously Mike Pence wants it. Mike Pompeo wants it. You have Kristi Noem who's very interested. You have the former governor of South Carolina, former ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley. Yeah, so there are people that want to be president out there. Even in Florida, we have four main figures, not just Ron DeSantis. But you have Senator Rick Scott, who everyone who knows him well knows he would like to be president someday. And even Marco Rubio, although neither one of them I think has any chance in this cycle in 2024. But I think that right now, this is just a two-man race, really. There's no polling at all that's even showing any of these other people registering anywhere near above 10% to get on the radar to be significant.

REICHARD: We’ve been talking with John Stemberger, president of the Florida Family Policy council. John, thanks so much!

STEMBERGER: Thanks, Mary.

WORLD Radio transcripts are created on a rush deadline. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of WORLD Radio programming is the audio record.