U.S. and Iran resume nuclear talks

MARY REICHARD, HOST: It’s Tuesday the 15th of April, tax day.

Glad to have you along for today’s edition of The World and Everything in It. Good morning, I’m Mary Reichard.

NICK EICHER, HOST: And I’m Nick Eicher.

Up first: nuclear talks with Iran.

Over the weekend, U.S. and Iranian officials met in Oman for talks on Iran’s nuclear program.

It’s the latest twist in a long, tense standoff. Early in his second term, President Trump has signaled openness to talks, even as he tightened the screws with a maximum pressure campaign of sanctions.

So did Saturday’s meeting move the needle?

Joining us now to talk about it is Janatan Sayeh. He’s an Iranian American who researches his home country for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

REICHARD: Janatan, good morning!

JANATAN SAYEH: Good morning, great to be with you.

REICHARD: Let’s start with the backdrop to these latest talks. What’s different now compared to when President Trump pulled the U.S. out of the 2015 nuclear deal during his first term?

SAYEH: Iran is in a significantly in a weaker position now, following the withdrawal of the JCPOA and, of course, the maximum pressure campaign. So one thing to keep in mind is that under Biden, maximum pressure technically was not lifted. The framework of the sanctions were there, but they were not as aggressively enforced as they would have been under President Trump. Now, another key thing is that Iran is also in a weaker position. Regionally speaking, their proxies are significantly weaker. The Axis of Resistance, so called, is shattered. They don't have Syria anymore. Lebanon is significantly weaker, given Hezbollah setbacks. And of course, the Houthis in Yemen are being driven back and domestically, their economy is in a very, very fragile state, and their currency is heavily devalued, so there's a lot of leverage for the current administration in Washington to be able to utilize to get a better deal in theory.

REICHARD: Well now we hear about “indirect talks” between the U.S. and Iran in Oman. What does that mean, and what do we know about how the talks played out?

SAYEH: The most crucial point here is that Iran has backtracked a few of its statements. So originally, Tehran had mentioned that they will not join any negotiations while under maximum pressure, they eventually gave in. Then after that, they claimed that they will not directly negotiate with Trump, given his aggressive policies towards the former IRGC commander Qasem Soleimani, who was eliminated in Iraq. But again, they agreed to do direct talks as well. They indicated that they've met the US delegation in Oman. So that is all indicative of the fact that Tehran is trying to buy time, from their perspective, as long as they can drag out the process and perhaps delay a potential strike from either Israel or jointly with Washington and Jerusalem, together, they might emerge as victorious in the long run, I guess.

REICHARD: I remember hearing that Iran initially downplayed these talks by saying they’s only send low-level officials to the meeting…but then Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi showed up. What does that change and Iran’s messaging about the summit tell you about its priorities?

SAYEH: I mentioned the fact that they're vague, and at one point they might claim that they're going to speak directly, but on the other hand, the Supreme Leader continues to cast doubt on potential talks with the United States. That serves two purposes. The vagueness number one is, as I mentioned, might be appeal to the Iranian strategy of delay and causing ambiguity would further, perhaps pose restrictions on potential outcomes of the talks domestically as well. They don't want to appear weak in front of their audience. So for almost half a century, they've waived this, they waged this war against the United States, and for them to backtrack that and officially commit and submit themselves to a talk with the United States. That, in itself, is indicative of their weakness, which is why they're keeping it vague, and perhaps we're getting missed signals from this nation.

REICHARD: On the American side was the Trump administration’s envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff. He’s been juggling peace negotiations with Hamas and Israel as well as Russia and Ukraine. What has he said about how the talks in Oman went?

SAYEH: He saw them as constructive. But the point here is that, from a Trump administration standpoint, they are looking for a foreign policy win. I think they were hoping for better results coming from Ukraine when it comes to Hezbollah in Lebanon, that could be seen a success. But ultimately, you know, Hezbollah was defeated more so than it gave into the negotiations. So when it comes to the Iran issue, I think they have every interest to de escalate with, with the Iranians hoping perhaps for a potential deal. But the crucial point here is that they ought to leverage Tehran's weaknesses and push for the dismantle of the nuclear program, and the perhaps the worst case scenario would be if we see a repeat of 2015 where the regime basically got sanctioned relief for not even dismantling its nuclear program in its entirety.

REICHARD: Janatan, what do you see as the upside and downside for these talks taking place?

SAYEH: Well, on the upside is that we are putting the ball in Tehran's court. We're letting them know that military confrontation is not our number one choice, but if that is what needed for us to secure our interests and have a stable region, then that's something that Washington can pursue. Now the downside is that, of course, we don't want to play into Tehran strategy of delay. We want to make sure that number one we can pursue something that's concrete in a short span of time, because Time is of essence, Tehran is a nuclear threshold at this point, but most importantly, not to give into another deal that Tehran was able to achieve in 2015 The idea is that limited centrifuges are not going to halt Tehran's ability to enrich uranium in undeclared sites, and a dismantlement would actually, in fact, achieve that for for the United States.

REICHARD: Another round of talks has been scheduled for this weekend in Rome—interesting timing there for Easter weekend. What will you be watching for?

SAYEH: Specifically, as to what the two sides will be discussing, whether they both find it concrete or not, and whether Tehran is in fact, able to get concessions throughout the talks. That would be number one to make sure that Tehran doesn't get sanction relief, while just for, uh, joining the negotiation table. But most importantly, whether we're moving forward with dismantlement, whether there's any word of that or we're still going to discuss the amount of centrifuges and what, to what percentage Tehran can enrich uranium.

REICHARD: Janatan Sayeh is a research analyst studying Iran for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Janatan, thanks for your time!

SAYEH: Great being with you. Thank you for having me.

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