U.S. Middle East policy at a crossroads

MARY REICHARD, HOST: It’s Tuesday the 26th of November.

Glad to have you along for today’s edition of The World and Everything in It. Good morning, I’m Mary Reichard.

NICK EICHER, HOST: And I’m Nick Eicher.

Up first, Middle East dealmaking.

Efforts to get a cease-fire in Lebanon and also free Americans held hostage in Gaza have a new urgency with the Trump administration due in in less than two months.

President -elect Trump’s pick for National Security Adviser Mike Waltz made his priorities clear.

MIKE WALTZ: We still have seven American citizens being held hostage in the tunnels of Gaza. By the time of inauguration day, they will have been held longer than the Iranians held our hostages in 1979.

Where do negotiations stand now, and how might the transition in power play a role? Joining us now is Richard Goldberg. He’s a former member of the National Security Council staff, and now a senior advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

REICHARD: Rich, good morning.

RICH GOLDBERG: Good morning.

REICHARD: Well, let’s talk about the cards the Biden administration is holding. Do they have leverage to secure a deal to release hostages in the next two months?

GOLDBERG: Well, it's always possible to use leverage, especially there's leverage in the fact that you have an incoming administration and you have an unpredictability of policy, especially if you believe that the policy will turn more hawkish. That to mean more supportive of Israel, more hostile towards Israel's detractors in the region. So that gives you a little bit of oxygen to use to say to different actors, "Hey, you know us. You don't know what you're going to get under a Trump administration." Why don't you use all your leverage now that you may not have used over the last year and get us some sort of a deal on terms that the Israelis might believe are good and favorable to them, so that we can have a hostage deal, that we can bring the Americans back. So yes, there are opportunities. The President is still the president. He still has all the levers of power. He's the Commander in Chief of the military. He can impose sanctions, but all of those decisions can be erased on January 20, so it cuts both ways.

REICHARD: Let’s talk about Trump’s team now. Two of his early appointments included former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee as Ambassador to Israel, and Congresswoman Elise Stefanik as Ambassador to the UN. Add to that Mike Waltz for National Security Advisor and Senator Marco Rubio for Secretary of State. What do these picks say to you about how the United States’ Middle East policy is likely to change now?

GOLDBERG: This is a team that really reflects a few doctrines. Number one, peace through strength. Number two, strong, robust support for Israel and not showing any daylight between these two allies, Washington and Jerusalem. And number three, strong support for maximum pressure on Iran, and understanding that the root cause of instability in the region is caused by the Islamic Republic in Iran, and not caused by some sort of Israeli-Palestinian conflict, as has been the lens of the Obama administration, the Biden administration and previous administrations over the last few decades. That means you get back into the recipe book for how you restore stability, how you bring about peace through strength. I think it means you will see a shift for Israel, as far as not withholding weapons, ensuring there is political support constantly, both publicly from the White House podium, from the State Department and at the UN Security Council, and then also looking for ways to pressure Iran and constrain both Tehran and its proxies. So both from Governor Huckabee, who's going there as ambassador to Israel, somebody who is known to be a pretty strong voice in support of Israel. The joke, of course, going around, is that it might be the first U.S. ambassador to Israel who lobbies the Israeli government to be more pro-Israel. But obviously he's a voice that is sent by the President to speak and communicate to Israelis. I think it's an important voice right now, after Israelis have seen a year of street protests of pro Hamas supporters on campuses, in the streets, harassment of Jews the United States, the burning of Israeli and American flags, a worry of what direction the country is going in here, you're going to have somebody who represents the United States, reassuring the Israelis that America stands with them strongly, at the same time coming on American television from Jerusalem and explaining and articulating to the American people why it's so important to support Israel while we see this lunge leftwards in certain elements of the American body politic. So I think an important pick in its own right.

REICHARD: Wondering what you are hearing from America’s adversaries to indicate how they perceive Trump’s team? Do they see this next administration as a real threat to them?

GOLDBERG: Well, I think that in the Iranians, you are seeing a change already. They have not followed through on what had been, apparently a public threat to respond militarily to Israel for the last military strike that Israel had conducted inside of Iran. There still may be something smaller that might come. But clearly, the Supreme Leader has been shaken a little bit in his decision making by President Trump returning to office, potentially to rebuild the maximum pressure campaign. So I think you're already seeing those signals change. They're also starting to signal their interest in potential nuclear talks. Now, I think that's a lot of a trap potentially being laid for the president-elect, which he'll see through, but still telling that they have not been offering those talks to the Biden administration now signaling that as President Trump's coming to office. So yes, I think that just the election is having an impact in foreign policy, but what matters will be what the president decides to do on day one in office, to follow through on the perception, to ensure that he is not just a transition deterrent, but he is a deterrent as president as well.

REICHARD: Richard Goldberg is a former member of the National Security Council staff, and now a senior advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Richard, we appreciate your time with us. Thank you.

GOLDBERG: You bet.

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