Trump’s global gambits

NICK EICHER, HOST: It’s Tuesday the 11th of February.

Glad to have you along for today’s edition of The World and Everything in It. Good morning, I’m Nick Eicher.

MARY REICHARD, HOST: And I’m Mary Reichard.

Up first, the future of Gaza.

Three weeks into a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, Gazans are returning to what’s left of their homes. The war is not over, but President Trump is already floating a vision for rebuilding.

Here he is speaking aboard Air Force One on Sunday:

TRUMP: I’m committed to buying and owning Gaza.

EICHER: The president’s proposal is for the U.S. to take the lead in clearing the wreckage and unexploded ordnance, while Palestinians temporarily relocate to Egypt or Jordan.
Israel’s neighbors rejected that plan…but U.S. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz told NBC something has to give.

WALTZ: You can't make this the Paris of the Mediterranean like Beirut was back in the 70s and give these people a better life if you've got 1.8 million people living in absolute squalor in mountains and mountains of mountains of debris. So for anyone, the media included, that doesn't like what he is proposing, come to us with a better plan.

EICHER: Joining us now to talk about it is Will Inboden. He’s a former member of the National Security Council staff now teaching at the University of Florida.

REICHARD: Will, good morning.

WILL INBODEN, GUEST: Good morning. Mary. Great to be with you.

REICHARD: Will, since day one, it seems that President Trump’s strategy has been to put a seemingly outrageous bid on the table when his actual goal is something else. The Art of the Deal methodology. I’m thinking about the tariffs on Mexico and Canada aimed at border security improvements, for example.

What do you think his goals might be for Gaza?

INBODEN: I think you may be on to something that this is a classic Trump disruptive move of: toss out a provocative idea that is not what most of the conventional wisdom is thinking about. But with that idea, he is highlighting some of the real problems with Gaza and the opportunities, right? The problems are decades of failed governance. Nothing has worked there very well before, certainly for a better life for the Palestinian people or for reining in Hamas. And also he’s reminded us that it is oceanfront property, right? It actually is, just in terms of the real estate geography, a fairly desirable location with a lot of potential. I personally think that an American massive occupation and reconstruction effort there would not be a good idea. So I hope the president doesn't actually follow through on that.

But I suspect that what he might be doing is trying to change the paradigm and remind other key countries in the region that, hey, everything that we’ve tried in the past in Gaza has failed, so let’s think outside the box, and hopefully this is a gambit to get other countries in the region, the Saudis, the Emiratis, the Jordanians, the Egyptians, you know, some of the friendlier Arab Arab states, to step up and do a lot more, and to envision a better life for Gaza that provides opportunity for the peaceful Palestinian people who are there while preventing any return to power in any way, shape or form, of Hamas. And so I hope that’s the end state that he wants to get to. I don’t think it’s going to be a massive American stabilization and reconstruction effort. I think that we’re through those things for now.

REICHARD: Well, just to put a fine point on what you just said. How does all this square with Trump's previous comments that the U.S. is getting out of these forever wars and that we won't put our own troops on the ground?

INBODEN: Yeah, exactly. That’s why I suspect this may be more of a provocation on his part than a really serious proposal, precisely because everything else we’ve seen of him is: he wants to reduce the American footprint in the Middle East. He wants to reduce the American presence there, and certainly not take on a massive new obligation.

REICHARD: Let’s talk about the Arab response to Trump’s idea. America’s partners in Egypt, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates have rejected it out of hand. Even though Arab nations in the past took in Palestinians for resettlement, they haven’t this time around. Why is that?

INBODEN: Yeah, well, this has been a problem going back decades to when the terrorist Yasser Arafat was leading the Palestinian cause, right? The Palestinian Liberation Organization. And no other country in the region wanted them. Wherever Arafat and his minions were going, whether it was Jordan or whether it was Lebanon, they were supporting terrorism. They were undermining the local government. They were picking fights with Israel. They were sometimes attacking Americans. They eventually got expelled to Tunisia. And so it has been a problem for the region. I do think other regional states do need to step up, have failed in the past to provide a better pathway and opportunity and support for the Palestinians displaced population. So they do need to do more, but it’s also incumbent on the Palestinians to take some responsibility for building a better future for themselves also, and show that they’re committed to selecting leaders who don’t support terrorism, who accept Israel’s right to exist, who are committed to a peaceful pathway of opportunity and growth. So the failure, the failures of the Palestinian people have experienced are massive. There’s plenty of blame to go around. But instead of more finger pointing, we need to see them step up and start offering some solutions.

REICHARD: Another thing I want to speak to you about is, this past Wednesday, President Trump expressed interest in negotiating a new nuclear deal with Iran. He pulled the U.S. out of the 2015 deal that President Barack Obama had negotiated, but now he's saying the U.S. could negotiate a verified deal to keep Tehran from developing atomic weapons. And at the same time, Trump revived his maximum pressure campaign of sanctions against the regime. What's the strategy there?

INBODEN: Again, I think this is potentially a very effective strategy of increasing pressure on Iran to create better circumstances, to negotiate from a position of strength and hopefully get a peaceful solution to the Iranian nuclear program. It’s notable that President Trump issued National Security Presidential Memorandum number two focused on Iran. I say it’s notable because that was the second one he issued. The first one was just about how to organize his national security system. And so this is the first one he did focused on any particular country. It tells us what a priority Iran is for him and addressing Iran’s support for terrorism and for its nuclear weapons program. 

And the previous Trump strategy, I think, was pretty successful about increasing that pressure on Iran, but if we do that again this time, hopefully it could also lead towards negotiating from a position of strength and possibly a verifiable deal. I will say I’m very skeptical that Tehran, that Ayatollah Khamenei and the revolutionary government there would be willing to do one. The reason they signed the deal with the Obama administration was because it had such good terms for Tehran, didn’t have intrusive verifications and inspections that it did allow them still to have a pathway delayed and slowed a little bit, but still a pathway eventually to a nuclear weapon. And they are a lot closer to one now, and it’s very worrisome, and I know that Israel doesn't want to see that, the United States doesn't want to see that. And you know the new NSPM also includes a credible threat of military force, and Iran needs to know that that’s a real possibility, and hopefully that will be enough to induce them to come to the negotiating table.

REICHARD: Final question here, Will. President Trump has done a lot since taking office, breathless pace, any foreign policy actions that interest you in particular that we've not talked about today?

INBODEN: You know, I will say, since I’m a real China Hawk, I’m obviously very concerned about the threat from the People’s Republic of China to the United States and to our allies and our interests. It’s still not clear what his China policy or strategy is going to be. I know he’s obviously looking at imposing some more tariffs on China, which I would certainly support. But I’m also worried about what seems to be him stepping away from support for democracy and religious freedom and human rights in China. We got a lot of Chinese Christians there who want more support and encouragement from the United States as they just want to be able to worship freely and see a better government for themselves. And so I’m watching that space carefully to see where President Trump comes out on our military balance with China, the overall competition with China, and then support for religious freedom and human rights there.

REICHARD: Will Inboden is a former member of the National Security Council staff and a professor at the University of Florida. Will, thanks so much for your time!

INBODEN: Thanks Mary. Great to be with you as always.

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