The war rages on

MYRNA BROWN, HOST: Up next: The war in Ukraine rages on into the new year.

A “special military operation” that Vladimir Putin thought would only take days has now stretched into 2023, and the war is almost a year old.

MARY REICHARD, HOST: Over the weekend, Russia’s military suffered one of its deadliest attacks. Nearly 90 Russian troops were killed when Ukrainian missiles rained down on an occupied position in eastern Donetsk.

Even as the losses pile up for both sides, Putin is showing no signs that he’s ready to end the invasion. But will the war come to an end in 2023?

BROWN: Joining us now with insight is retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery. He previously served as policy director for the Senate Armed Services Committee under the leadership of the late Senator John McCain.

He served for 32 years in the U.S. Navy as a nuclear-trained surface warfare officer.

REICHARD: Admiral, good morning!

MARK MONTGOMERY, GUEST: Good morning and thank you very much for having me.

REICHARD: Well, let’s start with that missile strike in eastern Donetsk. There’s been a lot of criticism of Russian commanders from within Russia over that. Give us your take on what happened there?

MONTGOMERY: Well, listen, I think what happened there was the Russians probably had very poor emissions control, which is to say their junior personnel were on their cell phones and there was enough cell phones being detected in a certain area that at some point, the Ukrainians were able to determine through that or through maybe imagery from small drones that there was a concentration of Russian forces. That then brought a HIMARS which does have a range restriction of under 90 kilometers, but they brought a HIMARS into the appropriate range ring and got off, what they report, report as six rounds and obviously destroyed probably a birthing and troop collection area. And you know, I'd be surprised if it was only 60 people killed only in the sense that six HIMARS is a lot of destructive power. They're actually six GMLRS, guided missile rounds, that struck that target, and that's going to create a lot of casualties.

REICHARD: Putin is sending new hypersonic cruise missiles to the Atlantic. What is the significance of this news?

MONTGOMERY: So I think Putin in general is trying to signal to the United States and Western Europe that we need to be very careful about what we're providing to the Ukrainians. And, in fairness, the United States has been. We provide HIMARS. Initially, we provided 155 millimeter artillery, which was about 20 to 30 kilometers. We eventually extended that to the HIMARS system, which has a guided missile launcher that has got about 90 kilometers. We have not provided the ATACMS rounds, which would take the HIMARS range out to 300 kilometers and allow Ukraine to strike Russian territory. I also believe we have a handshake agreement with the Ukrainians to not strike Russian territory with U.S. rounds. So the United States is trying to limit the friction, the cost admission of U.S. weaponry,  confine it to the sovereign territory of Ukraine. But Russia is trying to signal to us that even that may be too much at this point.

REICHARD: Ukraine has talked about holding a peace summit to be moderated by the United Nations. Is there a point to that if Russia isn’t participating?

MONTGOMERY: No, I think at this point that's really about winning the public relations and strategic communications game. Obviously, any kind of a peace summit or summit to discuss a termination of the war has to include Russia and Ukraine.

REICHARD: If you were advising the White House on this war, what would you see the United States should do differently in 2023 with regard to supporting Ukraine?

MONTGOMERY: Well, the first thing I would tell you is they absolutely have to continue doing what they do, which is about every two weeks, we drop a $500 million to $1 billion arms package. And that's about the normal flow. We have to keep providing the 155 millimeter rounds. The GMLRS rounds for the HIMARS system, that's the 90 kilometer rounds. We have to really go find the NASAMS rounds, because the NASAMS system, which is an air defense system that we recently provided the Ukrainians has done a fantastic job shooting down Russian cruise missiles. We have to provide more rounds for that. In other words, we have to keep doing what we're doing that's absolutely essential to Ukraine maintaining any kind of offensive capability and defense of its national critical infrastructure. I think going forward, we have to work with the Europeans to make sure a significant restoration, humanitarian economic restoration package is being prepared and implemented in Ukraine. And I think here, you know, the way the military aid has been, has been about two thirds U.S, one third the rest of Europe. The humanitarian and economic recovery funding needs to be reversed. You're not going to find the United States willing to bear the the majority burden of that effort. So that is something we have to work with our European allies and partners and ensure that that's being prepared now. Because the Ukrainians are going to need that immediately.

REICHARD: And to tie this all together, what has to happen to see this war finally come to an end in 2023?

MONTGOMERY: Yeah, that's a really hard one, Mary. I would say, obviously, if either side had a significant military victory across all areas of the front, that could end it. I think, really, Vladimir Putin needs to recognize that the damage to his ability to maintain his regime in Russia is put at risk by continuing the conflict in Ukraine. In other words, the economic pain that his economy begins to feel from changing gas and oil export-import patterns, as Western Europe gets off of Russia, and we keep the price driven down on Russian oil and gas. Once he begins to feel that pressure, that I think is the only thing that will move Putin off of this terrible decision-making that he's got himself into in Ukraine. I do not believe he'll win on the battlefield. I, conversely, think it's going to be tough for Ukraine to completely push Russia out of Donetsk, the Donbas region, and out of Crimea. So the real solution comes when the economic pain is too high for the Russian population to maintain regime credibility for Putin.

REICHARD: Retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery. Thank you so much, appreciate your time.

MONTGOMERY: Thank you, Mary.

MYRNA BROWN, HOST: Up next: The war in Ukraine rages on into the new year.

A “special military operation” that Vladimir Putin thought would only take days has now stretched into 2023, and the war is almost a year old.

MARY REICHARD, HOST: Over the weekend, Russia’s military suffered one of its deadliest attacks. Nearly 90 Russian troops were killed when Ukrainian missiles rained down on an occupied position in eastern Donetsk.

Even as the losses pile up for both sides, Putin is showing no signs that he’s ready to end the invasion. But will the war come to an end in 2023?

BROWN: Joining us now with insight is retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery. He previously served as policy director for the Senate Armed Services Committee under the leadership of the late Senator John McCain.

He served for 32 years in the U.S. Navy as a nuclear-trained surface warfare officer.

REICHARD: Admiral, good morning!

MARK MONTGOMERY, GUEST: Good morning and thank you very much for having me.

REICHARD: Well, let’s start with that missile strike in eastern Donetsk. There’s been a lot of criticism of Russian commanders from within Russia over that. Give us your take on what happened there?

MONTGOMERY: Well, listen, I think what happened there was the Russians probably had very poor emissions control, which is to say their junior personnel were on their cell phones and there was enough cell phones being detected in a certain area that at some point, the Ukrainians were able to determine through that or through maybe imagery from small drones that there was a concentration of Russian forces. That then brought a HIMARS which does have a range restriction of under 90 kilometers, but they brought a HIMARS into the appropriate range ring and got off, what they report, report as six rounds and obviously destroyed probably a birthing and troop collection area. And you know, I'd be surprised if it was only 60 people killed only in the sense that six HIMARS is a lot of destructive power. They're actually six GMLRS, guided missile rounds, that struck that target, and that's going to create a lot of casualties.

REICHARD: I’m reading reports that it was over 90 soldiers killed.

MONTGOMERY: Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if we get even higher than that. I think the Russians either don't know or would practice disinformation in any case. This is embarrassing. And I really think the Russian military's in a tough position. Putin plays them against both the Chechen and the Wagner group assets that he has in a who could provide more for me at this moment scenario. And I think the Russian senior Russian military leadership definitely feels a lot of stress from Putin right now as well as from the Ukrainians.

REICHARD: Putin is sending new hypersonic cruise missiles to the Atlantic. What is the significance of this news?

MONTGOMERY: So I think Putin in general is trying to signal to the United States and Western Europe that we need to be very careful about what we're providing to the Ukrainians. And, in fairness, the United States has been. We provide HIMARS. Initially, we provided 155 millimeter artillery, which was about 20 to 30 kilometers. We eventually extended that to the HIMARS system, which has a guided missile launcher that has got about 90 kilometers. We have not provided the ATACMS rounds, which would take the HIMARS range out to 300 kilometers and allow Ukraine to strike Russian territory. I also believe we have a handshake agreement with the Ukrainians to not strike Russian territory with U.S. rounds. So the United States is trying to limit the friction, the cost admission of U.S. weaponry in the sovereign territory, confine it to the sovereign territory of Ukraine. But Russia is trying to signal to us that even that may be too much at this point.

REICHARD: Ukraine has talked about holding a peace summit to be moderated by the United Nations. Is there a point to that if Russia isn’t participating?

MONTGOMERY: No, I think at this point that's really about winning the public relations and strategic communications game. Obviously, any kind of a peace summit or summit to discuss a termination of the war has to include Russia and Ukraine.

REICHARD: If you were advising the White House on this war, what would you see the United States should do differently in 2023 with regard to supporting Ukraine?

MONTGOMERY: Well, the first thing I would tell you is they absolutely have to continue doing what they do, which is about every two weeks, we drop a $500 million to $1 billion arms package. And that's about the normal flow. We have to keep providing the 155 millimeter rounds. The GMLRS rounds for the HIMARS system, that's the 90 kilometer rounds. We have to really go find nice Sam's rounds, because the NASAMS system, which is an air defense system that we recently provided the Ukrainians has done a fantastic job shooting down Russian cruise missiles. We have to provide more rounds for that. In other words, we have to keep doing what we're doing that's absolutely essential to Ukraine maintaining any kind of offensive capability and defense of its national critical infrastructure. I think going forward, we have to work with the Europeans to make sure a significant restoration, humanitarian economic restoration package is being prepared and implemented in Ukraine. And I think here, you know, the way the military aid has been, has been about two thirds U.S, one third the rest of Europe. The humanitarian and economic recovery funding needs to be reversed. You're not going to find the United States willing to bear the the majority burden of that effort. So that is something we have to work with our European allies and partners and ensure that that's being prepared now. Because the Ukrainians are going to need that immediately.

REICHARD: And to tie this all together, what has to happen to see this war finally come to an end in 2023?

MONTGOMERY: Yeah, that's a really hard one, Mary. I would say, obviously, if either side had a significant military victory across all areas of the front, that could end it. I think, really, Vladimir Putin needs to recognize that the damage to his ability to maintain his regime in Russia is put at risk by continuing the conflict in Ukraine. In other words, the economic pain that his economy begins to feel from changing gas and oil export-import patterns, as Western Europe gets off of Russia, and we keep the price driven down on Russian oil and gas. Once he begins to feel that pressure, that I think is the only thing that will move Putin off of this terrible decision making that he's got himself into in Ukraine. I do not believe he'll win on the battlefield. I, conversely, think it's going to be tough for Ukraine to completely push Russia out of Donetsk, the Donbas region, and out of Crimea. So the real solution comes when the economic pain is too high for the Russian population to maintain regime credibility for Putin.

REICHARD: Retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery. Thank you so much, appreciate your time.

MONTGOMERY: Thank you, Mary.

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