The successor problem

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LINDSAY MAST, HOST: Coming up next on The World and Everything in It: World Tour.

As we said a moment ago, Hungarians will be going to the polls on Sunday. Here’s some of what Vice President J.D. Vance said as he showed his support for incumbent Prime Minister Orban:

VANCE: I am here for a simple reason: because I admire what you are fighting for. You’re fighting for your freedom, you’re fighting for your sovereignty, and I am here because President Trump and I wish for your success and we are fighting right here with you.

NICK EICHER, HOST: But after more than a decade in power, the leader of Europe’s “New Right” faces meaningful opposition. 

WORLD’s Global Desk Chief Jenny Lind Schmitt has the story.

JENNY LIND SCHMITT: Prime Minister Viktor Orban faces his most serious challenge ever to his 16-year rule, from a former protege. 

Opposition candidate Peter Magyar’s Tisza party is also conservative–like Orban’s Fidesz. But Magyar says he wants to fight the corruption he claims has taken over Orban’s government.

MAGYAR: The movement of the vast majority of the Hungarian people against corruption, lies, propaganda, autocracy.

Orban has been Hungary’s prime minister for 16 years. And before that, he also held the office from 1998 to 2002. Some analysts say he has stayed in power this long by understanding what the electorate wanted to hear and by working and changing the system to his advantage.

But recently, under a stagnating economy and high inflation, voters have become dissatisfied. Younger people are leaving the country to build a future elsewhere. 

Now, many hope Peter Magyar can bring change.

BAKOS: So there is a new generation of voters, those born in 2008 who will vote after spending almost their entire life under the current government.

Marcell Bakos is a Hungarian international relations expert and theologian based in Budapest.

BAKOS: And so for some of these younger voters, there is usually just a very strong desire to see a change in power and maybe an improvement in quality of life, and that alone can lead them to support the opposition, even if they don't identify as liberals or they don't hold very like anti-conservative views.

Bakos says there are differences that give this opposition candidate a real shot. At 45, Magyar is a younger face than Orban’s. He’s also worked to tap into Orban’s nationalist base. At rallies, Tisza flies Hungarian flags; past opposition parties flew the European Union flag. Most of Tisza’s members are new to politics, without past associations with communism or Fidesz. And Magyar’s last name literally means “Hungarian.”

Meanwhile, Orban has campaigned on staying out of the war in Ukraine, and says Magyar would draw the country in.

BAKOS: However, Tisza supporters would obviously see Peter Magyar’s victory as a bold step to reinforce Hungary's ties with NATO and also to distance Hungary from Russia.

Tisza positions itself as a moderate right wing to centrist party, and it’s made a point of steering clear of controversial topics like abortion, migration, or LGBTQ issues.

The country is only about the size of the U.S. state of Indiana, with a population of 10 million. But the election has international implications. 

Orban has had outsized influence as the leader of Europe’s “New Right.” He’s positioned himself as an ally of U.S. President Donald Trump, but he’s also had cozy ties with Russia, China, and Iran, skillfully playing the superpowers off of each other.

STRADNER: Orban is an opportunistic leader, and he's a veteran in politics, so he really understands how politics work.

Ivana Stradner is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

STRADNER: So that's precisely why he has made very close ties to Russia, China, and also the United States for his domestic audience, to portray Hungary as a great Hungary and being an important player in global political agenda, and to portray also Orban is the one who is able to balance between all those powers.

Stradner says those other countries value Orban’s willingness to disrupt dynamics in the EU.

But while President Trump has supported Viktor Orban, Orban has not responded similarly regarding the Iran War.

STRADNER: Orban started immediately weaponizing that, talking about, talking about some concerns about Trump's war. He basically raised Hungary's terror threat level, talking about the triggering of migration from Iran. He also, you know, complained on the conflict related to energy sector.

Meanwhile, Bakos says the choice for Hungarian Christians is not clear. 

Under Orban, the government has enacted legislation aligned with Christian values. The principles of only two genders and life beginning at conception have been written into the constitution, and the government has rejected proposals to legalize euthanasia.

But Orban has also opposed protections against abortion or regulations for in vitro fertilization. Critics also accuse him of restricting justice and squelching the free press.

BAKOS: So many Hungarian Christians have been disillusioned from the current government, especially following the different scandals that have taken place, all the corruption charges, and also a poorly performing economy, which we just had in the past few years. But on the other hand, they actually don't trust the new guy either, especially because he doesn't really deal with questions that are deemed civilizational from a Christian perspective.

Stradner says it’s important for the international community to watch this election closely. And even if Magyar does win, that doesn’t necessarily mean that Orban will leave quietly.

STRADNER: After so many years in government, Orban is not going to give up easily. He will fight, so be prepared for that. I would not be surprised that he will use some hybrid efforts that are not fully democratic to undermine the elections.

Polls in Hungary close on Sunday evening at 7 p.m., and results are expected soon after.

That’s this week’s WORLD Tour. I’m Jenny Lind Schmitt.

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