The regime’s survival instinct

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MARY REICHARD, HOST: It’s Tuesday the 19th of May. Glad to have you along for today’s edition of The World and Everything in It. 

Good morning, I’m Mary Reichard.

LINDSAY MAST, HOST: And I’m Lindsay Mast.

First up, an eleventh-hour reprieve.

President Trump announced he’s postponed a massive military assault on Iran scheduled to launch today. Trump says he called off the strike at the direct request of the leaders of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. They report that serious negotiations are finally underway.

REICHARD: Well jining us now is Cliff May. He is the president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, and before that a journalist who covered the Iranian revolution of 1979.

Cliff, good morning!

CLIFF MAY: Good morning, good to be with you.

REICHARD: Really glad you're here. Well, to start off, let’s touch briefly on the President’s trip to China last week. What can you tell us about what effect those talks might have on the war with Iran?

MAY: I don't think they'll have much effect on the war with Iran. 

Now, President Trump said that Xi Jinping told him he didn't think that the regime in Iran should have sovereignty, should keep possession, have stronghold on the Strait of Hormuz, which is international waterway. That's nice that he said that. He said he didn't think that the regime should have nuclear weapons. That's nice that he said that. Will Xi Jinping do anything about either of those? I'm very dubious that he will. I don't think he will.

MAST: Well Axios reports that President Trump said that "the clock is ticking" and floated the possibility that "they are going to get hit much harder." Do you see this being different from the last few weeks of proposals and warnings…and resulting in more military conflict?

MAY: I think there's a good chance of it, and I think it's warranted that there be more military pressure on this regime, because the regime at this point has really given away nothing. It's been very tough. 

I think you need to understand who these people are. They believe themselves to be jihadis. In other words, they are fighting a holy war against America and the West, against Judeo-Christian civilization. This war began 1400 years ago. There is no way they can sit down and say, “Oh, let's negotiate peace,” but they can do a truce to give them time to rearm, and so they could be more pliable. But they're not there yet. We can discuss why, but they are not at the point where they are saying, “Okay, we'll make some serious concessions.” They're not there.

MAST: Well let’s go ahead and discuss that. Why?

MAY: Well, a couple of reasons. One is, I don't think we understood how many weapons they had in their arsenal. 

We had the war last year, the 12 day war, June of 2025. I think at the end of that, President Trump thought we whacked these guys good, they won't want to do this again. That was not their response. Their response was, “Okay, we got whacked good, so now we need to make hundreds, 1000s more missiles, more drones, for the next round. Would they hit Fordow, where we had an underground enrichment facility for to make uranium for nuclear weapons? We need to dig deeper.” And they began to do that under what's called Pickaxe Mountain. “We're going to dig so deep that B2s dropping massive ordnance penetrators can't reach us.” In other words, they said after the 12 day war, “We're going to build back better.”

And so, I don't doubt that what Admiral Cooper and General Kane are saying when they say we got 80% of their missiles, but 80% means they got 20% left. That could be 1000, that could be a lot. 

I do think in addition to what's going on, the economic strangulation campaign, sometimes known as Operation Economic Fury, we also need to resume Operation Epic Fury, or some new version of that, to destroy military targets, and perhaps to destroy, let's call them leadership targets, again till we get back to people in power who are more willing to make serious concessions.

REICHARD: Well Cliff, lets talk about the people of Iran right now. You’ve written that “maximum pressure on this regime means maximum support for the Iranian people.” So how much are they feeling that support right now?

MAY: I think not, not, not much. If they're getting weapons from anybody, and ammunition, and training, and coordination, I'm not aware of it. I think they want to be liberated, and I think they'll suffer a lot of serious sacrifices in order to have that, but I don't think they're getting the maximum support they hoped, yet. 

They would like to see this regime not saved, even in a weakened and crippled state, which is not nothing—that's an achievement from an American point of view—I think they would like to see this regime collapse, so they have the, at least the opportunity to have decent leaders, which they haven't had for the past 47 years.

MAST: Cliff, I want to talk a little bit about the American demands on Iran. Do you think the public impatience from Trump signals vulnerability to Iran? 

MAY: Absolutely, I think so. They, if—and I think they are—if they're reading the American press and they're looking at Congress, there's movements in Congress right now to stop, to say, "let's stop this war. It was a mistake.' 

If you're in the regime, you think, "You know what, maybe we can count on them." Also, if you read in a lot of the media, you'll see, "Oh, this war is not going well. It's going very well for the regime. They're doing much better, we're not." Even though, if you think about it and, I mean, imagine if this regime had eliminated the president and the secretary of state and dozens of his deputies. I mean, you would say, "They're losing." This regime is hurt for sure, but of course they are willing to make sacrifices. Martyrdom is a noble aspiration after all, and surrender is not, capitulation is not, not to the infidels. 

So yes, I do think the regime is getting some encouragement from, from our side.

REICHARD: You mentioned Operation Economic Fury and Operation Epic Fury. If negotiations do fail, what’s that going to look like, do you think?

MAY: Continue the strangulation, continue the blockade of ports. As it is right now, the regime is losing what would be like 400 to $500 million a day. Kharg Island is where the tankers load up on the oil and that's not happening at this point. 

President Trump, so far, has been careful—this may not continue too much longer—in that, for example, on Kharg Island, we, we bombed out the military infrastructure, but not the oil infrastructure. Why not? Because President Trump would like to leave in place as much as possible for a new and better regime so that they're not impoverished for years. He has tried hard—and he hasn't so far—to hit anything that is, that would really make civilians suffer.

MAST: So you’ve said wars of choice can prevent threats from metastasizing. So last question here, and as briefly as you can: if President Trump really decides time is up and orders bombers back to Iran, what’s the endgame?

MAY: Look, the end game is the collapse of the regime. The end game should be, and I think it's important that the Strait of Hormuz becomes an international waterway, and we enforce that, and don't let them. I do think that the U.S. can rise to the occasion. I don't think that the regime in Iran, now crippled, can or should win this conflict.

REICHARD: Cliff May is the president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. 

Cliff, thanks so much.

MAY: Thank you, guys.

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