The new Republican Party

MYRNA BROWN, HOST: It’s Thursday the seventh of March, 2024.

Glad to have you along for today’s edition of The World and Everything in It. Good morning, I’m Myrna Brown.

MARY REICHARD, HOST: And I’m Mary Reichard.

First up: aftershocks from Super Tuesday.

As you just heard, Nikki Haley suspended her presidential campaign yesterday. Rather than endorsing Donald Trump, she gave him a challenge.

NIKKI HALEY: It is now up to Donald Trump to earn the votes of those in our party and beyond it who did not support him. And I hope he does that.

BROWN: With Democrat Dean Phillips also ending his campaign, primary season is effectively over…and the rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden is on.

Meanwhile, several states held primaries for Senate races, including an interesting one in California.

REICHARD: Joining us now to talk about these results is Hunter Baker. He’s an author, Provost of North Greenville University in South Carolina, and a regular contributor to World Opinions.

Hunter, good morning.

HUNTER BAKER: Good morning.

REICHARD: Well, what do the results tell you about the demographic Haley attracted, and what they’ll do come November?

BAKER: Well, there's always sort of two Republican parties. There was a more moderate Republican party that was sort of a, maybe a Nixon, Rockefeller, Ford kind of a party that was overtaken by Ronald Reagan, who introduced a new type of republicanism that was more aggressive on the Cold War, that was more aggressive on cutting taxes, wanted smaller government, things like that. It also introduced social conservatism of the type that brought many evangelicals on board. And now there is still another turn toward a Trump GOP. It is far more nationalistic, it would be far more cautious about getting involved in adventures abroad, it is much less of a free trade party. But in all of these examples, there still remains a group that typically tends to identify more with maybe the previous iteration, or that just has some different sensibilities, and Nikki Haley was able to kind of effectively tap into that group that had not really bought into the Trump revolution. But that group was not numerous enough to bring her anywhere close to the nomination.

BROWN: You know, it's interesting that Nikki Haley suspended her campaign rather than simply ending it. And that is a legal difference. That means she could jump back in if something happens to Trump, either legally or otherwise between now and the Republican convention. But even if something like that happened, do you think Trump Republicans would get behind Haley?

BAKER: I don't know. It seems unlikely at this point. You know, right now, his dominance in the party is so powerful that it's difficult to imagine anything else, you know, and of course, it's it's interesting to contrast that to Biden. I mean, Biden is also winning by blowout numbers, you know, even though he has some opposition, but the Democrats generally you could imagine them turning from Biden much more easily than you could imagine the Republicans at this point turning from Trump.

REICHARD: Well, let’s talk about Senate races. 34 seats up for election, 24 held by Democrats. One race that attracted a lot of attention is in California with the race to fill the seat of the late Dianne Feinstein. That state has what’s called a “jungle primary,” meaning that all candidates are on the same ballot regardless of party. Many expected to see two Democrats win and face off in November, but that didn’t happen.

BAKER: No, it did not. First of all, I just want to note that the Republican was Steve Garvey, hero of my youth, first baseman for the Los Angeles Dodgers, and then for the San Diego Padres. So he, he is very famous within the state. But I don't think that's why he won. I think that the reason that he was able to get into the general election with Adam Schiff is Adam Schiff. Adam Schiff had tremendous resources. And he did everything he could to boost Steve Garvey. And the reason for that is obvious. A Republican has not won statewide in California in a very, very long time. So I think that what Schiff is calculating is that if he had faced one of the other Democrats, he might lose. But he knew that if he faced Steve Garvey, he was almost guaranteed to win. And so he helped to make that happen.

BROWN: Well, that's speaks to another trend. Democrats are spending big ad money to raise the profiles of unconventional Republicans to push out moderate Republicans or Democrat challengers. What do you make of this strategy and how it's working so far?

BAKER: You know, that strategy of boosting unconventional Republicans, I think, really worked for Democrats in 2022. They were able to eke out some victories where they might otherwise have had losses, and they definitely blunted that red wave that everybody was talking about in 2022. And so I think that they are going to continue to do that unless they begin to perceive the MAGA coalition as a more dangerous coalition. Now, that might happen this year. Donald Trump is leading Joe Biden in many polls. In 2020, I don't know that he ever led him. And and I don't think that he ever led Hillary in any of the polls back in 2016, either. So the fact that he's actually leading in many of these polls, to me indicates that he may well win. I mean, he has a very good chance to win. And if that's the case, will he have coattails? Will he bring in other Republicans including some of his candidates with him?

REICHARD: Ok, final question: any other takeaways from the results on Super Tuesday?

BAKER: Yeah. Nikki Haley. We'll see what happens with her. I mean, you're talking about a candidate who I would would have said has a super promising future. And now she has kind of ended up in the same position that Ted Cruz was in in 2016. He was basically telling his followers, vote your conscience. He was not he was not giving a ringing endorsement of Donald Trump. And she is likewise not doing that. Basically, she's saying, you know, Donald Trump needs to earn the support of my voters. And so she is kind of standing back. We'll see as we get closer to the election if she decides to, to give more of an endorsement.

BROWN: Hunter Baker is an author and Provost of North Greenville University as well as a regular contributor to World Opinions. Hunter, thanks again!

BAKER: Thank you.

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