The long transition

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NICK EICHER, HOST: It’s Tuesday the 3rd of February.

Glad to have you along for today’s edition of The World and Everything in It. Good morning, I’m Nick Eicher.

MARY REICHARD, HOST: And I’m Mary Reichard.

First up: Venezuela’s future.

Since the U.S. removed President Nicolas Maduro from power, the country has released more than 300 political prisoners.

EICHER: But with former Vice President and Maduro ally Delcy Rodriguez now in charge, the questions concern long-term stabilization. 

Last week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He defended U.S. progress in Venezuela and stressed the need for patience.

RUBIO: Objective number one was stability. In the aftermath of the removal of Maduro, the concern was what happens in Venezuela? Is there civil war? Do the different factions start going at each other? Are a million people crossing the border into Colombia? All of that has been avoided.

REICHARD: Senator Jeanne Shaheen expressed concern about reports that Rodriguez is involved in drug trafficking. Rubio answered that those reports are not confirmed, but that if they are true, the U.S. doesn’t intend to leave a corrupt system in place.

RUBIO: In the transition and stabilization phase, we are just acknowledging reality, and that is, you have to work with the people that are in charge of the elements of government.

EICHER: Other senators criticized the administration for not immediately installing opposition leader Maria Corina Machado. But Rubio maintained she doesn’t yet have the support needed to lead the country effectively.

RUBIO: Whether we like it or not, the elements of control in that country, the people with the guns, the people that control the guns and the institutions of government there are in the hands of this regime.

He says the goal is to help Venezuela become so stable that someone without ties to crime–someone like Machado–can lead.

The committee pressed Rubio on how long a transition would take. He had no timeline, but said the country would increasingly become better than under Maduro.

RUBIO: I get it. We all want like something immediately, but this is not a frozen dinner you put in a microwave and in two and a half minutes it comes out ready to eat.

REICHARD: Rubio pointed out evidence of progress: the opening of Venezuelan oil to private investments… and plans to create a U.S.-led banking and audit system.

RUBIO: It probably doesn't go far enough to attract sufficient investment, but it's a big step from where they were three weeks ago.

More now on Venezuela from our producer Lindsay Mast.

LINDSAY MAST: Thanks, Mary. 

The corruption in the Venezuelan government has gone on for decades now and it’s complex. To help make sense of it, I called up Charles Shapiro. He held numerous senior positions at the U.S. Department of State, including Ambassador to Venezuela under President George W. Bush. He was also principal deputy assistant secretary for the Western Hemisphere and Coordinator for Cuban Affairs. He joins us now to talk about what comes next for Venezuela. 

Ambassador Shapiro, good morning.

CHARLES SHAPIRO: Good morning, Lindsay.

MAST: Let's start with where you were when you heard that the U.S. had gone in and taken out Nicolas Maduro. What was your reaction?

SHAPIRO: Ha, I was asleep, and I started getting phone calls actually from Al Jazeera and Sky News in London, wanting me to appear and tell them what was happening. And I had no idea what was happening! It was, you know, in the wee hours of Saturday morning. 

So I was surprised. My assumption was that we would put more and more pressure on Maduro and get him to leave, not actually take the next step and actually, you know, go in with troops and airplanes and special forces, and grab him and Celia Flores and bring them out.

MAST: As you prepared to appear and were formulating your initial thoughts, what was going through your head?

SHAPIRO: It was so obvious so quickly how delighted Venezuelans in Venezuela and outside of Venezuela were. I mean, they were surprised, they were delighted, they were celebrating, celebrating more outside of Venezuela than inside because Maduro's police were still arresting people inside Venezuela. So, I mean, it was interesting what was going on.

And then, surprised that it ended where it did. In other words, that we, the United States, took out Maduro and the First Lady—who's a member of Congress in her own right—but left everybody else in place. And that just surprised me no end, and still does, by the way. Because the people in place, particularly the individuals who are the Minister of National Security, which would be the equivalent of Homeland Security Secretary, and the Minister of Defense, are like bad guys, you know, who are as bad as Maduro. So if Maduro's bad enough to take him out, why do you leave these two guys in place and leave them in charge of the police and the military so that if you're going to repress people, that's who's going to do it.

MAST: I know you've said that in removing Maduro and supporting then Delcy Rodriguez that the U.S. has chosen "stability over democracy," I believe was the term that you used. Can you walk us through what are the risks there?

SHAPIRO: In the short term, I think it's okay, right? But you've got the same police and the same military maintaining order. And you know, for the first week after January 3rd, I mean, they continued to arrest reporters, arrest people, stop people on the streets and check their telephones to see what kind of messages they had on it. You know, the forces of repression continue to repress.

MAST: So long-term, what do you see?

SHAPIRO: The idea that all this is going to go well in running a government in a country the size of Texas with 30 million people, and I've lived there for years, I know things don't go well there, but you overlay that on top of a country where people don't trust people who are not on their team, you know, on their political team, who expect the worst of each other. Because they've been receiving the worst of each other for 25 years. And so overlay that on top of it.

MAST: Secretary of State Rubio had a long discussion about this. He says this is a phased process. How do you react to that? Do you think the U.S. has the stamina to do that?

SHAPIRO: That's a great question, I mean, because that's the one everybody's wrestling with. And it's one Venezuelans themselves are wrestling with. At least Rubio mentioned democracy, because when Trump talks about Venezuela, he talks about oil. So it's the phasing in, and how do you phase it in? And how quickly do you phase it in?

Some of it's pretty basic. The five person commission that runs elections in the country is controlled by Maduro's allies. So you can't have an election if those guys are in charge of the election. You need to replace them. To get to a democracy, you've got to have police and military that the public have faith in...

The courts are controlled by Maduro loyalists. You would need to replace all the Supreme Court justices and the lower courts as well. Maybe not all of them, but you know, you have to set up a process to decide who needs to go and who needs to stay.

And this is like the headache-iest headache of all, is, the Constitution of Venezuela was written by Hugo Chavez, shortly after Chavez was elected president. He became president in 1999. They wrote a new constitution the way that you would go to a seamstress and have a dress made for you. It was made to order so that the sleeves fit Chavez just right. I mean, literally a constitution written for Hugo Chavez.

They need to call the statesmen and women and write a new constitution for the country. And just think about that, how big a task that is.

MAST: Oh, oh, it would be massive. So what else does the U.S. need to be mindful of with this regime change?

SHAPIRO: What the Trump administration is trying to avoid is what we did in Iraq, you know, where we abolished the military and the police, and then there was no military or police and there was huge confusion and chaos as a result. And so they're trying to avoid that... That's understandable, but how do you manage a country using the same people who've been imposing repressive law for 25 years are still in charge? How long do you leave them in charge? ... It makes the Gardonian knot look easy.

MAST: Charles Shapiro is former U.S. Ambassador to Venezuela.

Ambassador Shapiro, thanks so much for your time.

SHAPIRO: Thanks, Lindsay, I appreciate it. This was fun.

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