The deal Iran couldn’t keep

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MYRNA BROWN, HOST: It’s Thursday the 9th of July. Glad to have you along for today’s edition of The World and Everything in It. 

Good morning, I’m Myrna Brown.

MARY REICHARD, HOST: And I’m Mary Reichard.

Up first: The dance with Iran.

During President Trump’s trip to Turkey for the NATO summit yesterday, he said the ceasefire with Iran is essentially over.

TRUMP: If we make a deal with Iran, I’m not sure that will stick. I’ve found them to be very dishonorable people.

BROWN: Earlier in the week, Iran struck three ships in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the U.S. to launch airstrikes in retaliation and revoke Iran’s waiver to openly sell crude oil.

U.S. Central Command said yesterday 20 warships currently patrol waters near the Middle East.

Is it possible to salvage the deal, or are we back to war?

REICHARD: Joining us now is Janatan Sayeh. He is a research analyst focused on Iran at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Janatan, good morning.

JANATAN SAYEH: Good morning, great to be with you.

REICHARD: Well, President Trump did not mince words in speaking about Iran, calling them scum, threatening strikes, saying negotiations are just a waste of time. 

What were you thinking as you heard what he had to say?

SAYEH: I was mostly following what comes after as a retaliation from the United States. We heard strikes go after military installations, but that has unfortunately turned into the new normal. We see this violation of the ceasefire constantly happening, but limited to certain assets in the south of Iran's coast. 

So, what I'm really looking for is: should we actually expand this retaliation? Would it go after the internal security apparatus, or perhaps elimination of senior figures that are calling these shots?

REICHARD: Well, Iran has attacked many vessels throughout this whole process, and every time I see media reports saying the attacks are “testing a fragile ceasefire.” 

So now with the president's statment, is the ceasefire broken? And if so, who broke it?

SAYEH: Well it's, it's clear that the regime violated it more than once. In the beginning it was maybe through the gray zone using proxies or having enough plausible deniability. But now they overtly attack some of these vessels that are going through the Omani route as opposed to the route that's closer to the Iranian coastline, and they take credit for it and they explain why they went about attacking them. So, the, the violation is very clear on that end.

REICHARD: Mm-hmm. Let's back up just a bit. The U.S. and Iran agreed on the outline of a peace talk process back in June. What benchmarks did both sides achieve before this week?

SAYEH: Well, Tehran's set of commitments were rather tame, if you will. All they had to do was not to attack the Strait of Hormuz and not weaponize as the negotiations were ongoing. And in return, they were getting a sanction waiver not only to sell oil, but to repatriate those funds and get the payments directly to their central bank. So they were not even able to uphold the most basic fundamentals that was effectively benefiting them more than us.

REICHARD: I want to talk about the days-long state funeral of Ayatollah Ali Khomeini. It wrapped up this week, just five months, maybe, after the Supreme Leader and other top officials were killed in American and Israeli airstrikes. 

Janatan, you were originally from Iran. In those images of the state funeral, what have you seen or maybe better not seen that tells you about Iran's leadership and outlook of the people?

SAYEH: It's a recurring pattern with not just funerals, any regime parade. They have people transported and busted in from different parts of the country. When you look at these images, oftentimes they’re AI altered. 

This time around, actually, and different outlets put out reports, Reuters being one of them, saying it did not look like the crowd surpassed a few thousand. And these again were not locals, they were regime supporters from around the country. 

Now, comparing that to how dissidents organized without having that much of a political backbone like the regime does, you saw millions pour into the streets, and that should tell you everything you need to know about the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic.

REICHARD: Mm-hmm. Let's move now to another peace deal in the Middle East. Hamas says that it's going to hand over control of Gaza to a UN committee, but it has not agreed to disarm. 

So Janatan, is this a genuine step forward or is Hamas stalling while they regroup?

SAYEH: Hamas is watching Tehran's tactic very closely when it comes to stalling. And to be more specific, they said they've dissolved an emergency committee, but at the same time they said they're going to have their technical and professional staff to remain in the position. 

So in effect, the group is continuing to rule at gunpoint, but rather quietly.

REICHARD: What do we know about the president's Board of Peace has it been doing to oversee the next steps in Gaza? Do they have what they need to be effective?

SAYEH: Comparing that to let's say the situation regarding Iran, having a coalition in place would not only legitimize any policies in place, but in theory would actually facilitate them to be more effective and maybe more long-lasting. 

But the challenge continues to be disarmament. It is not just about managing Gaza and reconstruction, is about the future of the terror group itself and the peace plan itself. It has enough capabilities, but it's a matter of how deep we want to get when when we're dealing with an enemy like Hamas.

REICHARD: Janatan, is there anything else you think people should know about the state of U.S.-Iran relations today?

SAYEH: The United States revoking the sanction waiver was a significant step in a sense that this no longer benefits the RGC financially. 

But the real question is, are we back to the point of the maximum pressure campaign, or is this simply going to be a pause and the retaliatory strikes just being a form of punishment to nudge the regime in the right direction? 

One thing we've seen with Tehran time and time again, behavior only changes when the regime does.

REICHARD: Janatan Sayah is a research analyst focused on Iran at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. His work examines Iran's domestic politics, regional influence, and nuclear ambitions as well. 

Janatanan, thanks so much.

SAYEH: It was a pleasure speaking with you.

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