The cost of defiance

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MARY REICHARD, HOST: Coming up next on The World and Everything in It: A deadline looms for Iran.

President Trump on Monday laid out the stakes for Iran if it does not make a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by this evening.

TRUMP: Where every power plant in Iran will be out of business, burning, exploding and never to be used again. I mean complete demolition by 12 o'clock, and it'll happen over a period of four hours if we want it to. We don't want that to happen.

LINDSAY MAST, HOST: Joining us now to talk about it is Janaten Sayeh. He focuses on Iranian domestic affairs and the Islamic Republic’s regional influence at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. 

Janaten, good morning.

JANATAN SAYEH: Good morning, great to be with you.

MAST: Janaten, you’re from Iran, so I want to lean into that and have you tell us about the Iranian perspective as this deadline looms. The Trump administration says the events of the weekend have left the country humiliated. What’s your sense about whether the regime would agree?

SAYEH: The regime would of course try its best to save face domestically, but ultimately the videos speak for themselves. The heavy loss of regime figures also are a great indicator of loss. If the Supreme Leader is gone, his son is nowhere to be seen, many of the IRGC commanders have been eliminated or in hiding—that is indicative of a regime that is paranoid and is weakened. 

On the other hand, it does boost anti-regime morale. Of course, Iranians on the ground continue to see this as a war against their oppressors. But that said, any threats that go after Iranian critical infrastructure or bridges or petrochemicals would send the wrong message to the average Iranian. 

But ultimately, this is an avenue that the Islamic Republic has opened up by closing the Strait of Hormuz. So Trump's remarks are mostly reactionary, meaning once the regime goes after economic targets, Israel and the United States can only respond the same way.

REICHARD: Well over the weekend, President Trump posted a threatening message for Iran on social media. He's had to do some damage control on that. It included obscenities and some religious mockery. 

I'm curious, we have seen how that goes over here in America a bit. How does that go over in Iran? How did they read a message like that?

SAYEH: You pointed out two components. One was the humorous angle of ridiculing some of the ideology of the Islamic Republic. And that is the best way to resonate with Iranians. Of course, being oppressed by Islamism, they are the first to defend freedom of speech when it comes to countering Islamism. It goes a long way with them. And I do remember growing up there, to see that there is a president out there that hears our voices and knows what our concerns and grievances are and knows what is the best way to signal that diplomatically, of course resonates greatly.

On the other hand, threatening critical infrastructure is a double-edged sword. On one hand, there is an understanding that this is an Islamic Republic that is embedding itself in civilian infrastructure and there's only one way to go about it. On the other hand, you want to ensure that should there be a new government in Tehran, you want them to have the resources and assets to stand on their own. 

But as an Iranian, talking to folks on the ground as often as I do, comes down to one main sentiment, which is Iranians can rebuild all this infrastructure, but they cannot revive the tens of thousands that have been killed and are getting executed daily on sham political trials.

MAST: So you think President Trump still has the respect of the Iranian people?

SAYEH: Without a doubt, so long as the campaign is ongoing and the message is clear that they are going after regime officials and military infrastructure or facilities that enable Tehran's kleptocracy to prevail. 

Ultimately, when we talk about petrochemicals, for instance, or we talk about bridges, these are all assets that the regime exploits. They use the same bridges to transfer munitions and personnel, they use petrochemicals to launder money, and of course they've monopolized every corner of Iran's economy. 

So to the average Iranian, it's debatable whether any of these infrastructure was benefiting them to begin with. Of course the situation is less than ideal, but we have to remember Iranians are still very desperate, but they're eager for change, so ultimately comes down to how messaging toward them is being carried out. Few instances here and there are not going to change the overall image, and as the president noted on February 28th, he was the only American president willing to aid the Iranian people, and that signal in itself is strong enough that a few tweets here and there are not going to change anything systemically.

REICHARD: Janaten Sayeh focuses on Iranian domestic affairs and the Islamic Republic's regional influence at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. 

Janaten, thanks so much.

SAYEH: Thank you so much for having me.

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