The battle for Kherson

MARY REICHARD, HOST: Coming up next on The World and Everything in It: the looming battle for Kherson.

Ukraine’s forces have made impressive gains in recent months. It’s recaptured several areas once occupied by Russian troops. And now attention is on the city of Kherson. Russian forces have occupied it since the opening weeks of the invasion.

MYRNA BROWN, HOST: There are conflicting reports about whether Russian troops are digging in to defend the city or if they’re preparing to flee. There’s some concern that Vladimir Putin may give the order to blow up a dam in Kherson, which could trigger catastrophic flooding.

Here to talk about it is John Hardie. He’s an expert on Russian policy and U.S. policy toward Russia.

He’s also deputy director of the Russia Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

REICHARD: John, good morning!

JOHN HARDIE, GUEST: Good morning. Great to be with you.

REICHARD: Well John, what is the significance of the city of Kherson in this war? And what is its strategic value?

HARDIE: Sure. So, it has great economic significance for Ukraine, a lot of trade runs through there. Also great political and symbolic significance being the only regional capital that Russia has taken since launching its full scale invasion back in February. And then, finally, militarily, Kherson is really the gateway to Odessa and another very important Ukrainian city, also a very politically symbolically important Ukrainian city. So retaking Kherson city would really close the door to a potential Russian move towards a desert, I think those already looking very unlikely given the the military realities on the ground at present, but retaking Kherson would put the final nail in the coffin.

REICHARD: If Russia were to blow up the dam in Kherson, what effect would that have on the war and on Ukraine’s military?

HARDIE: So, I think if Russia were to do that, remember, for the World War II buffs, back in 1941, the Soviets did something similar to try to stop the Germans from crossing the river. I think it'd be a similar calculus here. Basically, it'd be a Russian withdrawal across the river from the western bank to the eastern bank. And then they'd be trying to slow down Ukrainian forces who would want to pursue and continue their counter offensive. So it'd be to flood the surrounding area and slow down the advancing Ukrainian units.

REICHARD: There is also concern that Russia might use a dirty bomb in Kherson. Perhaps start with what is a dirty bomb and what impact would that have?

HARDIE: Sure. So a dirty bomb is basically where you combine radiological material with some sort of explosive. It's not splitting an atom like a nuclear weapon, but it can spread a lot of radioactive material and, obviously, be quite devastating, and especially psychologically so. So, for the past few days, basically, that the Russian defense minister, and chief of the general staff had been talking to some of their western counterparts, including their U.S. counterparts, and warning that in their words, Ukraine is planning to use a dirty bomb and into frame it on Russia. So a lot of folks in Western governments are worried that this is somehow Russia laying the groundwork for a false flag attack. To my mind, the Russian use of a dirty bomb is very, very unlikely. At least to me, this reads more like a Russian information operation and try to delegitimize Ukraine but anytime this sort of subject is broached, you do have to take it very seriously

REICHARD: A spokesperson for the Ukrainian military said Moscow is moving its most valuable troops and assets out of the city of Kherson, leaving only conscripts and those deemed expendable.

How do you read this if true? Is all of this further evidence that Russia knows it will lose Kherson and maybe planning to destroy the entire city?

HARDIE: Well, so if Russia does try to do a withdraw across the river, I expect that it might be how they try to pull it off. It'll be very difficult for them to withdraw the troops on the front line while holding the line long enough for the rest to get away safely. They might try to hold the line with Mobilize forces. I think that the mobilized forces would probably need some help from the professional units because alone they're not very combat effective. But so far, I haven't seen evidence of the large-scale withdrawal of Russian equipment or there’s some indications that may be starting. But at the same time the Russians appear to be continuing to try to hold the line on the western bank. So, to me, it's still unclear what exactly they're going to do.

REICHARD: Reports are that Russia is facing major military production delays and mounting losses. And a British Defense report said on Tuesday that Russia’s “artillery ammunition is running low.” John, where does Russia now stand in terms of its capability to continue waging war?

HARDIE: Sure, so I think Western sanctions and export controls definitely will—and perhaps already have—hurt the Russian defense industrial base. At the same time, a lot of these statements from Western governments have a good bit of spin to them. For example, there was one claim made by the Treasury Department in the U.S. where they were saying that a certain weapons system is delayed because of the new Western sanctions. Well, it was already delayed and sanctions played a part in that, but it's not something new. And by the same vein, the Western governments have been saying Russia's tank manufacturing plant is shut down. Well, I think, actually, there's been visual evidence that it continues to put out at least some tanks. So I think Russia probably came into the war with some stocks of components and whatnot to continue production. How vast those stocks are, I really can't say. So sanctions and export controls definitely will have an effect over time. But at least to my mind, that time probably hasn't really come, at least not in a large scale way for Russia.

REICHARD: John Hardie is with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. John, thanks so much for your time!

HARDIE: Sure, thank you.

WORLD Radio transcripts are created on a rush deadline. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of WORLD Radio programming is the audio record.