Taiwan’s political pressures

MARY REICHARD, HOST: It’s Thursday the 30th of May, 2024. This is WORLD Radio and we thank you for listening. Good morning, I’m Mary Reichard.

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BROWN: First up on The World and Everything in It: tension in Taiwan.

On Monday, members of the U.S. House Foreign Affairs committee visited Taiwan’s capital, Taipei City. They met with newly inaugurated President Lai Ching-te.

Texas Representative Michael McCaul:

MICHAEL MCCAUL: America is and always will be a reliable partner, and no amount of coercion or intimidation will slow down or stop the routine visits by the Congress to Taiwan.

The visit comes just days after China staged large-scale military drills off the coast of Taiwan.

REICHARD: Meanwhile, on Tuesday, Taiwan’s parliament passed legislation that gives the legislative branch more power over state budgets, including defense spending. Some residents say the legislation benefits China.

SEAN SU: I do not believe the legislature should decide what is true or not by simple vote.

BROWN: Joining us now to talk about Taiwan is Dean Cheng. He’s a senior advisor to the China program of the U.S. Institute of Peace.

REICHARD: Dean, good morning.

DEAN CHENG: Good morning.

REICHARD: Well let’s start with a quick refresher: are Taiwan and China distinct countries, and why should it matter to Americans?

CHENG: Taiwan is this odd entity, it refers to itself as the Republic of China. It was the losing side in the Chinese Civil War, where the Republic of China, the Nationalists, fought the Communists who created the People's Republic of China. The Nationalists lost and retreated to the island of Taiwan. It is diplomatically recognized by about a dozen countries. But the United States, when it chose to recognize the PRC in 1979, also said that we do not want mainland China, Communist China, the People's Republic of China, to simply invade and take over Taiwan. And so as a result, we signed something called the Taiwan Relations Act, where we promised to help supply Taiwan with defense goods. It is not a treaty, it is not a mutual defense treaty. So we are not formally absolutely committed to the defense of Taiwan, unlike, say, NATO, and we have sort of diplomatic relations with them, as many other countries also sort of have diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

REICHARD: One thing that U.S. lawmakers talked about during their trip was the 4 billion dollar aid package. What kind of military aid did the U.S. promise to send Taiwan in the recent foreign assistance package?

CHENG: So the U.S. is committed at this point to providing a variety of defense items. We have said that we are going to provide M1 tanks; we are recently agreed to sign up more HIMARs, High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, they've been very effective in Ukraine, and a variety of munitions. The problem here is that because of our commitments to deliver arms to Ukraine, deliver arms to Israel in their struggle in Gaza, Taiwan has fallen behind, and there's a almost $20 billion backlog right now, in terms of defense items that we have agreed to sell to Taiwan. But in terms of deliveries, it's a good question when that's going to happen.

REICHARD: Back in 2022, then House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan and the Chinese responded by staging live-fire navy drills near the island. How is the pattern similar or different this time around, with China’s military drills ahead of the House Foreign Affairs Committee visit?

CHENG: Well, the good news is that when Speaker Pelosi visited, the Chinese went so far as to fire missiles over Taiwan. That's something that they had actually generally avoided doing at all. That was a huge escalation in tensions, and one we have not seen with this visit, probably in part because it did not include the Speaker of the House. The Chinese instead had been conducting air and naval drills all around the island. These are very large, very substantial, but they don't include that particular provocation. Overall, the message that the Chinese are trying to send—were trying to send after the Pelosi visit, are trying to send now—is the same, however, to the United States: back off, stop supporting Taiwan. Stop supplying arms to Taiwan. And to the Taiwanese who have just inaugurated their new president: it's time for you to come to the table and reunify with the mainland.

REICHARD: I wonder what you make of this. It seems that Taiwan's president is seeking a closer relationship with the U.S. but Taiwan's legislature seems to be heading in a different direction, because on Tuesday, lawmakers there passed legislation that gives Parliament more power over state budgets, and that does include defense spending. So what do you think? Is this a political shift or much ado over budget meetings?

CHENG: Well, one of the things we have seen in Taiwan's political landscape, dating back the last quarter century at this point, is a very, very robust and very, very raucous democracy. This is a legislatures legislative yuan, which has often had fistfights on the floor. And the problem here is that this is exacerbated when you have a divided government as we now see, we have a DPP president, Democratic Progressive Party, and we have a coalition, this has not happened before in the legislature, between the KMT and a small new party, which together forms a majority outnumbering the DPP. You do see very different opinions. The KMT would, they're not interested in reunification, but they want to tamp down and be a little more conciliatory towards the mainland. And you see that the DPP, which, as its founding principle is focused on more pro-independence. So you've got a lot of different moving pieces. But they all basically create and deepen the fissures between new president Lai and the new legislature.

REICHARD: Final question here, Dean. Is there anything else you’re watching as this conflict continues to unfold?

CHENG: Well, one of the other issues here is what is happening on the mainland, and that is the fact that the Chinese economy appears to be slowing down. That is creating a lot of pressures on Xi Jinping. You have a broad set of indicators that suggest that younger people in China don't see the future as particularly rosy under those circumstances. The appeal to Taiwan, "Hey, it's time for you to rejoin the Motherland, rejoin China," becomes a lot less enticing. It's one thing if the Chinese economy is growing, there's going to be people on Taiwan, we're gonna say, hey, you know, maybe rejoining, that's cool. When things are not going well, when you're having more protests, it makes China even less inviting. And I think that that is has got to be weighing on Xi Jinping and how he pressures the island of Taiwan.

REICHARD: Dean Cheng is a senior advisor to the China program of the U.S. Institute of Peace. Dean, always appreciate your analysis. Thanks so much.

CHENG: Thank you for having me.

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