Taiwan resists Chinese pressure amid rising tensions

MARY REICHARD, HOST: Coming up next on The World and Everything in It:

China edges closer to conflict.

On Tuesday, China’s navy fired off weapons with live ammunition in exercises not far from the island nation of Taiwan. 

MYRNA BROWN, HOST: This comes after China encircled Taiwan with dozens of air and sea vessels last week, simulating a naval blockade.

AUDIO: [Chinese spokesperson condemning Taiwan]

Communist China’s Foreign Ministry says Taiwan’s claims of independence are incompatible with peace, and so warrant the military drills. Earlier this month, Taiwan commemorated Double Ten Day celebrating the Republic of China’s origins.

AUDIO: [Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te speaking about resisting Chinese encroachment]

REICHARD: Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te heard there saying he upholds the commitment to resist annexation or encroachment upon Taiwan’s sovereignty.

So why does Taiwan matter to China and the United States?

MARK MONTGOMERY: Taiwan represents a significant threat to China in the sense that it's a clear example of what a successful democratic Chinese government could look like, which does not describe the government of the Chinese Communist Party.

Retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery is a senior fellow for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He says the Chinese have two options for pressuring Taiwan to join the People’s Republic of China.

MONTGOMERY: The first one is they could try something large and kinetic, like a significant cross-strait invasion or a comprehensive blockade: The second option he has is to use an increasing level of economic, financial, and cyber coercion in a coordinated campaign that weakens the resilience of the Taiwanese people.

BROWN: Of the two options, Montgomery and other experts think the pressure campaign is more likely.

GORDON CHANG: We have to be prepared for anything at any place, at any time. But I think that when it comes to Taiwan, Xi Jinping knows that he will not start hostilities with an invasion of the main island of Taiwan.

Gordon Chang is a political commentator with two decades of business experience in China and Hong Kong. He’s also the author of a book called Plan Red: China’s Project to Destroy America. Chang spoke with WORLD’s Harrison Watters…and told him that a Chinese blockade of Taiwan would require encircling a nearby Japanese island.

CHANG: That's an act of war against Japan. We have a mutual defense treaty with Japan. So that brings in the United States. And I think just because the region is so tense right now that any act like a quarantine will start a chain of events that will inevitably lead to region-wide conflict.

REICHARD: Chang says President Xi knows the Chinese people are reluctant to fight people they have been indoctrinated to believe are fellow Chinese. And domestic problems with an economy that’s grown too big and is carrying too much debt make the prospect of war more undesirable.

BROWN: But Chang says the Chinese Communist Party can’t stand leaving Taiwan alone, and it also feels threatened by the United States.

CHANG: An insecure regime in Beijing is worried about the inspirational impact of America's values and form of governance on the Chinese people, which means that the party will never feel secure as long as the United States exists.

Montgomery says China is already working to undermine the United States through cyber attacks, influence campaigns to stir up distrust in American institutions, and developing weapons that can threaten the American homeland.

MONTGOMERY: As much as we have poor cyber defenses, we have non-existent missile defenses for the homeland.

REICHARD: Montgomery says China has spent twenty-five years investing in its navy and air force…trying to gain advantage over the United States.

MONTGOMERY: But the last few years of economic growth have not been kind to China. And as a result, they have not kept on that kind of exponential growth curve.

With China’s economy in trouble, Chang says the United States has an opportunity to challenge the Xi regime through economic decoupling.

CHANG: We brought down the Soviet Union through economic means, and we should do the same thing with China, because China cannot afford to attack us without our own money, without our technology. So we need to cut that off.

In the meantime, the United States has options for helping Taiwan keep China at bay.

MONTGOMERY: We have to continue to invest in defeating a cross-strait invasion. We have to continue to invest in countering a blockade. And then we have to invest with Taiwan in making sure we're both in a condition to resist the cyber-enabled warfare.

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