Securing the choke point

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MARY REICHARD, HOST: It’s Tuesday the 17th of March.

So glad to have you along for today’s edition of The World and Everything in It. 

Good morning, I’m Mary Reichard.

NICK EICHER, HOST: And I’m Nick Eicher.

First up, moves and countermoves in Iran.

President Trump yesterday said the U.S. has destroyed Iran’s explosive mine-laying ships, but called on other nations to help make the Strait of Hormuz safe for shipping.

TRUMP: We get less than 1% of our oil from the Strait, and some countries get much more. Japan gets 95%, China gets 90%, many of the Europeans get quite a quite a bit. So we want them to come and help us with the Strait.

Meantime, the U.S. says the war has severely limited Iran’s ability to fire missiles and manufacture drones.

REICHARD: Joining us now to talk about it is Retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery. He served on the Senate Armed Services Committee staff … coordinating efforts on national security strategy and cyber policy.

He now helps lead both the Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation and the Air and Missile Defense Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Admiral, good morning.

MARK MONTGOMERY, GUEST: Good morning. Thank you for having me.

REICHARD: How would you describe the current phase of the U.S. military action in Iran?

MONTGOMERY: We're still in that four week period of imposing costs to remove their—not just their ballistic missiles—but their ability to produce them, and the secondary suppliers for that, and the drones and their ability to produce them, and their ships and their ability to produce them. I mean, really, knocking back the Iranian defense industrial base five, seven years. And their enemy air defense, right? This question of enemy air defense, and hitting IRGC facilities, and taking care of the nuclear program. So you're doing all six of these. 

So from my perspective, somewhere around four weeks after the initiation, after February 28, we’ll have hit enough targets, including re-attacks and new attacks as we study the battlefield after our initial 15 or 17,000 strikes. And you know, and we'll be satisfied that we have reduced significantly, degraded Iran's capability to conduct war. 

And I would say, very importantly, what's an important strategic end here? An Iranian regime that cannot impose its will on its Arab partners, Israel, the United States. They can't inflict damage on them, and they can't terrorize them as they have been over the last 40 years.

REICHARD: Okay. Well, now President Trump says the State Department is organizing this coalition to protect ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. What are the threats that they'll need to address before shipping can return to normal?

MONTGOMERY: That's a good question, because it's, it's not just mines, which is what people talk about. It's missiles, anti-ship cruise missiles, drones, fast attack kind of unmanned fast attack craft, a la Ukraine, that Iran has started building, and mines. 

So though all four of those and they all have to be being degraded over this four week period, so that their risk to mission, their ability to impact the military mission, is down at an acceptable level, and the combatant commander, Admiral Cooper, says, you know, we can go ahead and start doing these transits.

REICHARD: Well, let's talk about this girls’ school in Iran. There are reports that outdated information led to a deadly bombing by the U.S. of a girl’s school in Iran. What can you tell us about how the U.S. military assesses civilian risk?

MONTGOMERY: Well, first, I would say categorically the U.S. never intentionally attacks schools, period. We do not attack, intentionally attack civilians. It does occur, and when it occurs, you find out why it occurs, you investigate it, you hold people accountable, and you fix the processes that allowed it to allow you to make that mistake. 

It more and more seems it was not like a it was probably not an errant missile. Sometimes that happens, a missile getting deflected in flight by anti air fire or something, and then hits the wrong target. I think this is probably going to come down to, as you mentioned, invalid targeting data that was out of date. 

And that’s not acceptable, and you have to find out how it happened and fix that problem.

REICHARD: Let’s talk about long term views versus short term views. Iran’s strategy seems to be it is taking a multi-pronged long term approach, squeezing various pressure points, one of those being cyber warfare capabilities. And on Wednesday, the U.S. medical equipment company called Stryker reported that it was hacked by the group Handala, which does have ties to Iran. 

So Mark, how widespread are attacks like these so far in the fight with Iran?

MONTGOMERY: Iran has cyber capability. They’re certainly not China or Russia, I don't believe they have sector impact, in other words, where they could attack multiple elements of a U.S. industrial sector and cause it to collapse, or an electrical power grid damage. 

But they clearly can do some damage, and we are very vulnerable. I mean, it has been pointed out many times by the place I’m at, Foundation for Defense of Democracies, but other assessments have clearly stated that the U.S. is not investing enough in the cyber security of its critical infrastructure and its companies in cyberspace. And that includes, particularly includes water systems, K-12, rural health care, farms and [agriculture], and all these things are vulnerable and could be attacked. 

And some may more, in addition to Stryker. That's happening every day with criminal activity, you know, I mean, there's, there's criminals doing this sort of activity every day that far exceeds what any what the Iran's nation state activity is, or Iran's criminal activity.

REICHARD: Final question here for you, Mark: what else are you watching this week as this conflict continues?

MONTGOMERY: I'm hoping that our allies come around. You mentioned that earlier, and that's been a big part of this. And there's certain allies that do get a lot of their fossil fuels from the Arabian Gulf, and they are allegedly committed to freedom of navigation. Those, if you're allegedly committed to freedom of navigation, you receive a lot of fuel from the Gulf, and you're a persistent ally of the United States, you should be alongside us doing this. 

I get that President Trump started this war, but he started this war with the strategic end, you know, the goal of reducing Iran, the IRGC, a terrorist state's ability to impose its will and terrorize its neighbors. That is a good war aim. As part of that, he has to control a final strategic objective, as he has to control flow through the Straits of Hormuz at the end of the conflict. And to do that, we would be assisted and would be helped by the air warfare destroyers or high end air warfare frigates of our key allies and partners.

REICHARD: Mark Montgomery is a former Senate Armed Services Committee advisor and Senior Director of the Center on cyber and technology at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. 

Mark, thank you so much.

MONTGOMERY: Thank you for having me, Mary.

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