Scrambling for eggs

MYRNA BROWN, HOST: Coming up next on The World and Everything in It, what’s driving egg prices?

In February, the national average for a dozen large Grade A eggs nearly doubled from January, soaring past $8 a carton. That’s a steep jump from under $3 this time last year according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

MARY REICHARD, HOST: What’s behind the surge? And how are farmers and shoppers handling the scramble?

WORLD’s Paul Butler has the story.

PAUL BUTLER: Shoppers roam the aisles of Louisville’s ValuMarket Mid City Mall. One aisle is empty: the egg aisle, where the cheapest carton is currently $4.99.

That’s about 30 percent more than Steve Johnson paid three weeks ago.

JOHNSON: The low-end eggs were running, I think, $3.79. And it was a week or 10 days later, I came back and they were running 499.

Johnson buys a dozen eggs every other week.

JOHNSON: I eat a fair amount of eggs. And right now, I'm not stopping. They'll have to go up a lot more before I stop buying them all together.

But he does say he might have to cut back on the number of omelets he makes.

Ken Spicer works at the store’s deli counter. He’s hopeful prices will drop.

KEN: I don't agree with it, but it will come down because the man is in there right?

The man he’s referring to is President Trump. In recent weeks he’s promised to bring down the cost of eggs. But it's going to take more than an executive order to make it happen.

ABC NEWSCAST: …and the big story this week, is the continued outbreak of the avian influenza…also known as bird-flu…

A key culprit for rising prices is H-P-A-I.

YUKO SATO: Highly pathogenic avian influenza.

Yuko Sato is a diagnostic pathologist at the Iowa State University Veterinary Lab. She says that with the spread of avian influenza in recent years, sick chickens are dead chickens.

SATO: You're dealing with a virus to birds, that is going to be almost 100% fatality rate. So it's like, it's like the Ebola of poultry.

When farmers detect the avian flu in a flock, the USDA recommends killing the entire flock to minimize risk of spread to other farms.

SATO: Now we're over 150 million birds that were depopulated.

After depopulation, farms must pass health inspections then wait 21 days before getting new chickens. But the effect on egg production isn’t over. It takes time for chickens to mature to the point of laying eggs large enough to satisfy consumers.

SATO: So they start laying these tiny pee-wee eggs, and they gradually get larger as they continue to lay eggs. So until it gets to the market, it may take a couple of weeks for them to get to that size.

WWMT-TV NEWSCAST: Beginning January 1st, all eggs sold in the state of Michigan must come from cage-free locations…

State policies have also crimped supply. Nine require retailers and restaurants to sell eggs from cage-free operations. Andy Harig studies tax and trade policy for the Food Industry Association.

ANDY HARIG: About 70% of egg production is what would be called standard housing, and a little bit less than 30 is cage-free. So it is a much smaller supply you're drawing from.

Some states are reviewing those cage free laws.

HOWARD WATTS: My name is Howard Watts, and I represent assembly district 15 in the Nevada State Legislature.

In February, Watts introduced a bill to temporarily loosen regulations to increase supply during avian flu outbreaks.

WATTS: It allows the sale of eggs that are not sourced from cage free facilities.

The bill received unanimous support from both houses, with the governor signing the bill soon after.

WATTS: “We needed to provide this flexibility quickly so that we can hopefully start getting the price of groceries down for folks.”

The law also allows smaller egg producers to sell nonstandard eggs to meet demand—including Grade B eggs.

While policies loosening restrictions may help supply, there are several other pressures that affect egg prices that laws alone won’t address. Unseasonably cold weather for instance.

WHAS11 WEATHER FORECAST: A winter storm warning is still in place till Saturday…

MCCLAIN: I don't know how it is in other parts of the country, but here in Kentucky, whenever a forecast has snow…

Steve McClain works with the Kentucky Grocers and Convenience Store Association.

MCCLAIN: …there is a run at the grocery store on staples like milk, bread, and eggs, I guess, to make a lot of French toast…

The cost of feed and transportation further complicates the problem. Andy Harig once again.

HARIG: So it is more expensive to raise the layers than it was, you know, two years ago.

Combine a run on groceries with half-empty delivery trucks arriving late at store docks, it’s no surprise that grocers are struggling to keep shelves stocked.

But it’s not all bleak news. Harig assures consumers that while there is an egg shortage, now is not the time to stock up.

HARIG: And what we always encourage people to do is buy what you need, obviously. But, you know, think of your friends and neighbors out there and make sure there's enough for them. There's going to be plenty of eggs.

Some customers are turning to local farmers like Issac Hebert for fresh eggs and lower prices.

HEBERT: We’ve got a list out, three weeks out, right now for eggs. I've had people come right out and tell me that they're coming to us because our eggs are cheaper than they are in the grocery store.

Hebert currently serves 20 to 25 regular customers. The increase in demand has him wondering if he should increase his small flock. But that work isn’t easy.

HEBERT: You can't just scale up this overnight. It takes six, six months to eight months to bring in more chicks, get them up to laying good and have eggs available.

He doesn’t know what will happen when egg prices come back down. The USDA predicts that could happen after April. Regardless, Hebert hopes the eventual increase in supply doesn’t end the interest in buying eggs straight from the local farm.

HEBERT: I hope that people will continue to support these small farms.

Reporting for WORLD, I’m Paul Butler in Louisville, Kentucky, and Arlington, Illinois.

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