Russia caught by surprise

LINDSAY MAST, HOST: It’s Thursday the 15th of August.

Glad to have you along for today’s edition of The World and Everything in It. Good morning, I’m Lindsay Mast.

MYRNA BROWN, HOST: And I’m Myrna Brown. Up first, Ukraine takes the offensive.

Last week, Ukrainian tanks and armored vehicles rolled across the border into a region of Russia called Kursk. This marks one of the first times Ukraine has taken the war into Russian territory since it was invaded in 2022. Russia responded by evacuating a nearby village and redeploying some troops to counter Ukraine’s offensive.

MAST: How does the move change the outlook of the war?

Joining us now to talk about it is John Hardie. He’s Deputy Director of the Russia Program for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Welcome, John.

JOHN HARDIE: Thanks for having me.

MAST: Well, John, how significant is this advance by Ukrainian forces in your mind? Just a border raid, the beginning of a full-scale assault, or something in between?

HARDIE: So, it's certainly not a border raid. Ukraine has conducted those in the past with units subordinate to its Military Intelligence Directorate, whereas this is a bona fide offensive regular army units, including some of Ukraine's better units, like 82nd and 80th Air Assault brigades, thousands of troops involved in the operation, really caught Russia by surprise, and Ukrainians were able to make pretty rapid gains. It's a significant moment in the war. I think if it works out, it could kind of shift the momentum back in Ukraine's favor, potentially ease pressure in Donetsk Oblast, a region where Russia is currently making slow but steady advances, and it could potentially allow Ukraine to take back some area north of the city of Kharkiv that Russia took in May 2024, if Ukraine is able to take advantage of Russian redeployments.

MAST: From reports I've heard, Ukraine is in a bit of a scramble to pull this off, pulling troops from the front lines for this operation. So, what kind of risks does that move pose for the war overall?

HARDIE: Right, so the flip side of the potential positive outcomes I mentioned is Ukraine is currently suffering from a significant manpower shortage. It's really the Ukrainian military's main problem going back to last year. It's the main reason why Russian forces have made gains in Donetsk Oblast, especially around the city of Bucha and the smaller city of Toretsk. And so, Ukraine took a gamble by committing, kind of scraping the bottom of the barrel to gather forces for this operation, rather than putting them on the defense in Donetsk Oblast. So, if it doesn't work out, Ukraine will have basically committed a self inflicted error that could compound its manpower shortage, even as the situation in Donetsk Oblast continues to deteriorate. And I should note that so far, Russia has deployed units from lots of different areas. It is not yet, at least. So far, I've seen deployed units from the primary axes in Donetsk Oblast, so Pokrovsk and Toretsk.

MAST: John, let's talk a little bit about the timing for this offensive. I remember last year, many expected to see Ukraine take actions like this one in a spring offensive that turned into a mud slog. Now it's a year later, fewer troops. Why make this move now? It seems risky.

HARDIE: So, I think Ukraine wanted to a reduce pressure from some of the areas where Russia has been advancing. The situation, especially in the Bucha area, is quite serious for Ukraine. The Russians are approaching an important logistics hub in Donetsk oblast, and I think Ukraine is really want to get out of the kind of negative trend, both in the on the battlefield and in the kind of media and informational sense of basically a narrative of slow and steady defeat. Ukraine wanted to reverse its fortunes by launching this offensive and I think they saw an opportunity, because Russia left the border weakly defended. It was the force there was prepared for like a small-scale raid of the type that Ukraine has conducted previously, but the Russians did not see and for that matter, I don't think many outside of the very narrow circle in Kyiv saw this offensive coming. So I don't think the Ukrainians gave the White House or others a heads up. I think, like I said, it was kept within a very narrow circle. And even Ukrainian commanders of brigades involved in the operation found out just a few days ahead of time.

MAST: John, is there anything else that we need to know to understand how significant this move is for this war?

HARDIE: Right? So I go back to the manpower issue. I think that's really the central dilemma for Ukraine. And I think, like I said, this offensive could end up being a master stroke that really shifts the momentum in the war, and it could end up being a self-inflicted error that compounds Ukraine's problems. So, only time will tell how it's going to turn out. I think the Ukrainians face an uphill battle in the sense that Russia has a significant advantage in force availability, so they are able to move forces from lower priority areas to deal with this offensive. We'll see how successful they are in driving Ukrainians back, and how long Ukraine actually tries to hold the territory. I think, at least for the time being, though, it seems the Ukrainians are digging in, which seems to me, they're going to try to put up a stout defense.

MAST: John Hardie is deputy director of the Russia Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. John, thank you for your time.

HARDIE: Thank you.

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