Running on empty

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MARY REICHARD, HOST: Coming up next on The World and Everything in It: Conflicting paths to change in Cuba.

The communist nation has spiralled into economic turmoil since the U.S. imposed an oil embargo.

NICK EICHER, HOST: Now new reports of diplomatic talks sit in contrast to recent rumors of military action.

WORLD’s Lindsay Mast has more.

LINDSAY MAST: More than three months of dwindling oil supply have hit the communist country hard. Gas sales are limited to 5 gallons per vehicle. Buses stop running at 6 p.m, and some international airlines have grounded flights to avoid refueling problems.

MIKE GONZALEZ: Cuba could produce a lot more oil. Cuba does not produce enough oil to cover its needs, and it needs to import most of what it uses.

Mike Gonzalez is a Senior Fellow at the Heritage Foundation who was born in Cuba and writes frequently on Latin America. He says oil from a Russian tanker allowed to dock in Havana recently would’ve provided about a week’s worth. And he says it’s unlikely it will benefit ordinary Cubans.

GONZALEZ: That will again, of course, go to the government. You know, police cars can have all the oil they want, but ambulances do not have oil.

As the crisis has deepened, President Trump has repeatedly alluded to regime change possibly coming through military action. He’s linked it to both the surgical removal of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and the ongoing war with Iran. Here he is in March:

TRUMP: Cuba's a mess. It's a failing country, and they're going to be next.

Yesterday, though, Cuba confirmed reporting by Axios that a delegation from the State Department recently met with Cuban officials. The Axios article did not name anyone involved, except for the grandson of retired Cuban leader Raúl Castro.

Gonzalez says Castro holds tremendous power, and nothing will change with him around.

GONZALEZ: Don't think that the president Miguel Diaz-Canel has any power. Raúl Castro, at 94, continues to have the power. And as long as he's allowed to stay on the island regime, nothing can happen in Cuba.

As recently as last week, President Trump has signified military action may still be in play. Here he is at at a Turning Point USA event Friday:

TRUMP: Very soon this great strength will also bring about a day, 70 years in waiting. It's called A New Dawn for Cuba. We're going to help them out with Cuba.

Cuba’s history of allowing America’s enemies to gather intelligence and conduct military operations there has long concerned American officials—particularly given the island’s closeness to U.S. shores. Additionally, Gonzalez says Cuba’s track record of infiltrating the government means any diplomatic maneuvering must be tightly managed.

GONZALEZ: Marco Rubio has to keep his cards very close to his vest. I do believe that probably the only people who have the inside information are Trump and Rubio.

Last week at a rally, the Cuban president stated that the country does not want military conflict with the U.S., but that it’s prepared to fight.

DIAZ-CANEL: We are called upon to be ready to face serious threats and military aggression; we do not want it, but it is our duty to prepare ourselves to prevent it. And if it becomes inevitable, to win.

Gonzalez says true regime change is the only pathway to Cuban self-government.

GONZALEZ: The Helms-Burton Act says that we actually pursue regime change in Cuba. This is nothing new. We have to have a transition to democracy very quickly as soon as the conditions are in place, the conditions on the ground, civil society institutions, voluntary institutions that create the ability for people to rule themselves and elect their own leaders.

He also says that’s long overdue.

GONZALEZ: Not since 1952 have Cubans been able to decide their own future. This is not acceptable. Cubans are the children of God, just like everyone else. They have every right to self-determination, to rule themselves, and that's what really needs to happen.

Cuba says the recent talks did not include any deadlines or threats of military action.

Reporting for WORLD, I’m Lindsay Mast.

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