Rightward momentum

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LINDSAY MAST, HOST: Coming up next on The World and Everything in It: World Tour.

Colombia votes for a new president next Sunday, and the outcome of the race could reshape the country’s direction. 

After four years under the nation’s first left-wing president, Gustavo Petro, voters are weighing questions of crime, security, and the country’s relationship with the United States.

WORLD’s Emma Eicher has the story.

EMMA EICHER: The presidential election comes as Colombia grapples with high crime, political violence, and government corruption.

In the May 31st election, 12 candidates running, with platforms ranging across the political spectrum.

But the top candidates from the radical left and right lead the polls.

MIGUEL SILVA: The center is disappearing.

Miguel Silva is a political consultant and analyst in Bogotá, Colombia.

SILVA: There are two very good candidates from the center, but they just, they were crushed by the forces of the extremes.

For a candidate to win the first round, they must receive the majority popular vote. If there’s no clear majority, the two candidates with the highest totals will proceed to a runoff.

Three candidates currently have a shot at winning the first round. Iván Cepeda is one of them.

SILVA: He is very ideological, very radical, and the continuation of what has been this government.

Cepeda is a popular left-wing senator and orthodox Marxist. He’s widely considered an ideological successor to current president Gustavo Petro.

SILVA: All they want is to, you know, create a bigger state and a bigger state and a bigger state, and disappear the private sector.

Cepeda’s two challengers are: Abelardo de la Espriella, a far right defense lawyer, and center-right wing senator Paloma Valencia. Their platforms focus on reversing many of Petro’s reforms, and strengthening ties with other nations.

SILVA: So it's very hard to tell who has the lead between those two. It's been a fascinating campaign in any case, because they are battling for the vote of the right.

Polling shows that Cepeda holds an advantage over the two right wing hopefuls, with sizable support within a voting base who wants him to uphold Petro’s policies.

SILVA: He's going to get 35% of the vote, probably a couple more points. And then the question is, ‘Who's going to be against him in June?’

Public safety, armed groups, and cartel violence are major issues in the election. Some analysts say recent attacks against civilians and military bases, largely in southwestern Colombia, may sway voters to the right.

Glaeldys Gonzalez is a political analyst for the International Crisis Group.

GLAELDYS GONZALEZ: There was, in late April, more than a dozen attacks against security forces and civilians.

Both of the right-wing candidates hold similar views on tighter security measures and stronger action against these insurgent and criminal groups.

However, left-wing Cepeda supports negotiations under the country’s current security policy, called “total peace.”

Colombia previously used police or military teams to physically destroy crops of coca leaf–the plant used to make cocaine. Petro’s government abandoned that tactic, opting for a more permissive approach.

In the first year of Petro’s presidency, the United Nations estimated that Colombia’s potential cocaine production increased by 53%. Still, it’s unclear whether that’s a direct result of a more lenient strategy.

GONZALEZ: The number of criminal groups have grown in the past four years and have expanded their grip on local communities through different types of mechanisms; extortion and recruitment and kidnapping.

The election has sparked political violence from these growing criminal groups. Right-wing senator Miguel Uribe, a potential presidential candidate, was assassinated last year after repeated attempts on his life.

GONZALEZ: So that has marked the election since the start of it, and this shadow of the possibility of Colombia returning to this type of practices by criminal groups trying to impose their agenda.

Petro is leaving behind a tense relationship with the U.S. In 2025, President Donald Trump sharply criticized Petro’s anti-drug policies and later announced cuts to U.S. assistance for the country.

Cepeda has said the U.S. remains an essential trading partner.

GONZALEZ: But at the same time, he has said that he will not abide by Washington's interest.

By contrast, de la Espriella and Valencia have welcomed stronger diplomatic ties with the U.S. and the European Union.

In March this year, Trump started the Shield of the Americas initiative. It's a coalition to combat drug trafficking and organized crime in more than a dozen countries. Colombia is currently not a member, but both right-wing candidates have expressed support for closer security cooperation with the U.S.

Political analyst Silva says, while the country still approves of its left-wing government, perspectives are shifting.

SILVA: Public opinion has shifted towards the right, I think. If that part of the vote were not divided in two, it would probably get 51% of the vote and win in the first round.

Barring unforeseen events, analysts predict a runoff election between Cepeda and a right-wing challenger. Then it will be up to the voters to continue another four years of the same, or choose change.

That’s this week’s World Tour. I’m Emma Eicher.

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