Putin’s stalling strategy

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MARY REICHARD, HOST: It’s Thursday the 22nd of May.

Thanks for listening to WORLD Radio! Good morning, I’m Mary Reichard.

MYRNA BROWN, HOST: And I’m Myrna Brown.

First up on The World and Everything in It: steps towards peace between Russia and Ukraine.

The White House announced on Monday that both sides have agreed to begin negotiations.

That follows last week’s prisoner exchange brokered in Turkey. Encouraging as that is, no formal truce was made

REICHARD: President Trump is optimistic Russia will make a deal in order to end the war and rejoin the global economy. But European leaders are skeptical. On Tuesday, the EU and UK imposed fresh sanctions on Russia’s illicit oil trade.

BROWN: Joining us now to talk about it is Ivana Stradner…she researches Russia for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

REICHARD: Ivana, good morning.

IVANA STRADNER: Good Morning. Thank you very much for inviting me.

REICHARD: Appreciate you making the time. Well, last week, President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky tried to set up a meeting with Russia’s Vladimir Putin in Turkey…but he didn’t show up. So, then we had a meeting between Russian and Ukrainian officials. That was the first time the nations have had direct talks since the war began. Ivana, what do you make of that meeting?

STRADNER: I'm absolutely not surprised that Putin didn't show up, because this is typical Putin's KGB game where he's just buying more time and trying to portray himself as a leader who is par on par with the United States. So he actually did not want to have a direct conversation with Zelensky. And make no mistake, Putin is just buying more time. He emphasized that the ultimate goal is to go back to the root of the problem of the conflict, and for him, it actually means subjugating Ukraine, number one. And second thing is Putin is also buying more time to make sure that he can reposition his military and to continue with his goal. And the third point is that Vladimir Putin also wants to exhaust Washington, so the President Trump eventually gives up, and that because Europe is not as strong as the United States, and they have imposed certain sanctions, but they do not have enough military power and will to punish Russia militarily, and Putin knows this. So he actually needs this ceasefire and buying more time to accomplish his larger objectives.

REICHARD: Ivana, have the countries moved at all in what they are willing to give up in order to achieve peace? And let’s start with Ukraine.

STRADNER: So, President Zelensky is not ready to give up Ukrainian territory, and he's absolutely right about this, because Putin is not going to stop. Putin has certain no control with Russia occupying territories and Crimea, and it has been this war going on for more than a decade. On the other hand, people in the West like to talk about Russia keeping Crimea so Putin can save his face. I actually disagree with that, because Putin is a dictator, and he absolutely controls the information space, so he can spin any information in any direction that he wants. So he does not really need to save his face in front of his own people. And my last point is, if you talk to people in the Baltic states, there are many, many concerns and right concerns that Putin is not going to stop at Ukraine. So we have to understand this war through Putin's perspective. Peace through trade never worked. It will not work this time either. The only thing that Putin understands, it's the language of power, more more sanctions, more military support, because Ukraine doesn't need flags all over Brussels and cheap talk, Ukraine needs weapons and much harsher sanctions on Russia.

REICHARD: So you say Ukraine is not yet willing to give up anything at this point. What about Russia?

STRADNER: Putin is also not willing to give up on his ambition, which is to subjugate Ukraine. All he really needs to do, and the game that he's playing right now is to buy more time, to make sure that there is a ceasefire so he can reposition his military and to continue with his imperialistic ambition. So I don't actually think that Putin is willing to give up any of the current territories that he holds.

REICHARD: Another big concern about Russia is the nearly 20,000 children taken from Ukraine by Russia during this war. On Wednesday, seven leading senators from both parties in the US introduced a resolution calling on Russia to release those children. It is a nonbinding resolution, but shows great concern many people have. What do we know about these missing kids?

STRADNER: Indeed, as negotiations between Russian and Ukraine continue, even President Zelensky has been pushing for the return of 1000s of kidnapped Ukrainian children, and this is the part of Russia's hybrid war where there are more than 19,000 cases where kids are missing because Vladimir Putin's goal is not just to seize the territory. His war is against Ukrainian identity itself. And not only that, Russia has been also weaponizing those children in far more literal way. According to the Ukrainian intel security services. They have been several cases so far in which minors carried out sabotage operations on behalf of Russia. So this is truly Russian state, a textbook example of hybrid war.

REICHARD: Wrapping up here, Ivana…what do you see as the likely outcome of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in these next few weeks?

STRADNER: I'm not very optimistic that negotiations will end in peace and ceasefire anytime soon. I actually think that ceasefire will be just used as a pause for Vladimir Putin to reposition his military and to continue with his imperialistic goals until the West specifically, we need more European sanctions and more European support, but also US sanctions to work. So whoever believes that Putin cares about economy and business and that peace through trade will work is sorely mistaken.

REICHARD: Ivana Stradner is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Ivana, thank you so much for your time!

STRADNER: Thank you very much for your kind invitation.

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