Muscle in the Caribbean

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MYNRA BROWN, HOST: It’s Thursday the 20th of November.

This is WORLD Radio and we’re so glad to have you along today. Good morning, I’m Myrna Brown.

MARY REICHARD, HOST: And I’m Mary Reichard.

First up on The World and Everything in It: Increasing pressure on Venezuela.

On Sunday, the U.S. Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group arrived in the Caribbean, putting it close enough to perform interior strikes on Venezuela. It’s part of a recent U.S. military buildup in the area. It comes amid more than 20 attacks on suspected drug boats in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific.

BROWN: At the same time, President Donald Trump has signified openness to diplomatic talks with the country’s leader, Nicholas Maduro, who faces charges of narcoterrorism in the U.S. Maduro has said the U.S. is fabricating a war against him.

Joining us now to talk about what the recent military moves mean is Retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery. He is a Senior Fellow with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

REICHARD: Admiral Montgomery, good morning.

MARK MONTGOMERY, GUEST: Thank you for having me.

REICHARD: Well, let's talk about the carrier group that was recently moved into the Caribbean. Where was it previously, and why.

MONTGOMERY: So previously, it was in the eastern Mediterranean. It was four months into a six, a nominal six month deployment. It was there as part of an American presence in the Middle East in support of defending Israel. Again, you know, some of its ships would be used to defend Israel against inbound ballistic missiles. But also, you know, it could swing down through the Suez Canal into the Red Sea, and eventually in the Arabian Gulf, if necessary. It can also swing up and do support to issues in Europe. But I think it was mostly about Israel and the Middle East. It terminated that deployment, took about a week to come across the Mediterranean as it did some logistics work, and then a week to get from the Mediterranean down to the Caribbean.

REICHARD: What was the military presence in the Caribbean from the United States side before this?

MONTGOMERY: So historically, in terms of operational deployments, one ship, maximum. On occasion, two ships, as they turned over each other doing either law enforcement related Counter Narcotics operations or training and exercising with a partner in Central or South America. So very, very limited. Over the last month, that's plussed up to an amphibious task force with three ships and up to 4,000 Marines and three or four large surface combatants. Those are destroyers that were there, and now it's been joined by this aircraft carrier strike group, which is itself an aircraft carrier, a Carrier Air Wing, and three to four large surface combatants or destroyers.

REICHARD: So what is the goal of this current approach, moving personnel and ships into the area? Is it merely intimidation?

MONTGOMERY: Well, I mean three things. I'd say, one, there's certainly some kind of performative nature to it, intimidation to try to convince Maduro to just grab, you know, find a jet that works, get a flight to Spain, get refueled, get a flight to Russia and take a dacha next to Hafez Al Assad, the former leader of Syria. Part of it's a pressure campaign, but the second part has been a system of attacking small boats that are allegedly shipping narcotics out of Venezuela. And then on the eastern side, in the eastern Pacific as well, but in the Caribbean, eastern Pacific, and in theory, taking what I presume is mostly cocaine to either Europe or the United States. And then there's a third element to this, which is we declared the cartel he allegedly leads a foreign terrorist organization that's going to open up the factories where cocoa paste is turned into cocaine. It's going to open up that infrastructure to strikes by U.S. assets that's not uncommon for us against foreign terrorist organizations.

REICHARD: And then, how has Venezuela responded to these recent moves by the U.S?

MONTGOMERY: Well, I think their response is generally performative as well, because there's a complete mismatch in the military forces here. There's not much they can do about our Navy. They have a very limited, you know, basically, one frigate that gets underway, and if it's smart, it'll stay inside territorial waters. One submarine that might be able to get underway. If it's smart, it'll stay inside territorial waters. And they have two types of aircraft, some souloid 30s they got from Russia. And then certainly they pose a minor, you know, some threat to the United States, although one I think they can easily handle. And then some aging F-16s that we transferred, I think, before to the Chavez time. So they have an a fairly aging air and naval component, and that's how you would counter these forces. So really, it's just performative, you know, calling up reserves and things like that. What danger do you see in all of this happening? Maduro is not the elected leader of Venezuela, you know, the opposition. You know, whether it's the actual person who ran Gonzalez or the or Maria Machado. You know, they're the elected, they're the opposition that’s actually the appropriately elected government. I don't believe Donald Trump is about regime change, but he is tired of Maduro. So you know, wanna you know, he could easily try a maximum pressure campaign to get him to flee. If that doesn't work, eventually target the narco infrastructure. So the narco cartels convince Maduro to just leave, or, you know, kill him, or strike some of their military assets. So the military convinces him to leave, or they kill him. None of those are great solutions, and you know, we have to be very careful here. There is a democratic elected leader, but you can't, you know, once you start the process of regime change, you know, you can't just avert your eyes, you know, we'll own a little bit of that. So we have to be very careful.

REICHARD: Final question, Admiral, is there anything about this story that you think the public needs to know, and perhaps it isn't being reported widely enough?

MONTGOMERY: Well, I think, look, I don't like cocaine deliveries from Venezuela coming to the United States, but the President says things like, fentanyl has killed 500,000 Americans. That's true. over the last decade. He also says Nicolas Maduro and Venezuela deal in drugs. That's true, but those facts can't be stitched together, because the reality is, fentanyl is a precursor. The precursor agents are coming from China into Mexico, where they're added into other drugs or processed and either added into other drugs or sent pure to the United States. That is the fentanyl drug trail. And we are striking the cocaine drug trail. And I just think, you know, we’ve got to be very careful mixing these things. Fentanyl is a drug that is killing—has killed hundreds of thousands of Americans. If the president were truly serious about fentanyl, we'd be holding China accountable and Mexico accountable. This Venezuela issue is a separate issue with cocaine, and I certainly don't like it, but I think we should handle that through law enforcement.

REICHARD: Retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery is a senior fellow with the foundation for defense of democracies, Admiral, thank you so much.

MONTGOMERY: Thank you for having me.

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