Missile tests and military exercises

MARY REICHARD, HOST: It’s Tuesday, the 3rd of January, 2023.

You’re listening to The World and Everything in It and we’re happy you’ve joined us today! Good morning, I’m Mary Reichard.

NICK EICHER, HOST: And I’m Nick Eicher. First up today, North Korea.

After its record number of missile tests and other military exercises in 2022, the outlook for North Korea in 2023 seems daunting.

WORLD’s Josh Schumacher on the forecast for what to expect.

KISHIDA: [Japanese]

JOSH SCHUMACHER, REPORTER: Last month, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told reporters the government conducted a test to see if Japan could survive an attack by its enemies.

He said the answer was no. Its current self-defense measures are not adequate.

And that’s why Fumio Kishida announced in December that Japan would significantly alter its self-defense strategy. Ever since World War II, the country has outsourced most of its defense to the United States. It kept just a small, police-style military force.

But now, Japan will allow its military to engage in preemptive strikes. It is planning a military buildup through 2027.

But why? Well, because tensions have ratcheted up in the region.

David Maxwell is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He is a 30-year veteran of the U-S Army, and served in special forces. He retired in 2011 after teaching at the National War College. Throughout his career, he specialized in military operations in Asia, and specifically Korea. He says Japan’s military buildup has quite a bit to do with China. But also a lot to do with North Korea.

MAXWELL: So what we're really seeing is North Korea, conducting political warfare and blackmail diplomacy, while at the same time trying to advance their military capabilities.

Even though North Korea has conducted more missile tests this year than ever before, Maxwell says the Kim regime is not prepared for war.

MAXWELL: In fact, we've seen indications that right now, even though they're in their normal winter training period cycle, that they're reducing training for soldiers because of lack of food. They are postured in offensive positions with their artillery, forward position 70% of their military is forward positioned between the DMZ and Pyongyang. However, we are not seeing the preparations for war.

Maxwell describes an asymmetrical military buildup by the North: rather than building a well-rounded military force, North Korea is focusing exclusively on building up its nuclear and missile arsenal.

MAXWELL: He's also developing the full range of missiles from short range ballistic missiles, medium range, intermediate range, and then intercontinental ballistic missiles. And he's tested various kinds as well.

Maxwell says the Kim regime relies on a strategy of provoking the international community into giving it sanctions relief.

The day after Christmas—only about a week ago—North Korea sent several drones across the border into South Korea.

SK MILITARY LEADER: [Korean]

An official from South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff saying his country responded by scrambling jets, firing warning shots, and sending some of its own drones back across the North Korean border. That sort of thing hasn’t happened since 2017.

Meanwhile, China is stepping up its provocations and aggressions—not just against Taiwan and Japan, but also the U-S.

AUDIO: [Jets]

That’s declassified audio from late last month of a Chinese plane maneuvering to within 20 feet in front of a U.S. plane while it conducted routine and legal patrols in the South China Sea. According to the U.S. military, the unsafe maneuver could’ve put the U-S pilot in danger.

But Maxwell says that North Korea is at the center of tensions and uncertainty in the region and elsewhere.

MAXWELL: Not only is North Korea connected to China and Japan, but also to Iran, into Syria, and they have proliferated weapons to training to conflict areas, Yemen, Africa, North Africa, you know, and they will sell weapons to anybody to make to make money. And so this little peninsula, really is connected to all the major threats, the United States is concerned about.

Maxwell says there are two ways North Korea’s trajectory could radically change.

The first is that the military elite in North Korea could turn on Kim Jong Un for not getting sanctions lifted.

MAXWELL: Despite his sanctions evasion activities, he really must get those sanctions lifted because of promises to the military elite. Now, if the military are not satisfied, we could see them try to exert pressure on Kim Jong and to change his behavior. That would be a positive for us. There's absolutely no guarantee of that. But it must remain a possibility.

And the other way things could change is the North Korean people saying enough is enough.

MAXWELL: An outlying possibility is unrest among the people that would really force Kim Jong Un to change his behavior. Because you know, if they cannot control the population. And we should remember too, that Kim Jong Un actually is more afraid of the population than he is of the US military.

Until either of those things happens, countries like Japan are forced to prepare for continued escalations—from North Korea, as well as China. Dozens of North Korean test missiles have already flown over, or near Japan in the past year and that very well could continue.

KISHIDA: [Japanese]

And that’s why Japan is, for the first time since WWII, changing its national security posture.

Reporting for WORLD, I’m Josh Schumacher.

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