Sound journalism, grounded in facts and Biblical truth | Donate

Kicker: Punxsutawney Phil’s prediction


WORLD Radio - Kicker: Punxsutawney Phil’s prediction

The forecasting mammal doesn’t actually have a great record

Groundhog Club handler A.J. Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil on Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pa., Wednesday, Feb. 2, 2022 Associated Press Photo/Barry Reeger

MARY REICHARD, HOST: A crowd gathered this morning at Gobbler's Knob for the 137th annual forecast from Punxsutawney Phil.

Last year Phil cast a shadow—forecasting six more weeks of winter. We looked over the climate stats for Pennsylvania and found his 2022 forecast? Mostly true!

But just how accurate is his Groundhog Day forecast over 120 years?

Turns out...not very.

Stormfax Almanac analyzed the data. It found that when Phil sees his shadow, the forecast is right less than 40 percent of the time. When Phil doesn't see his shadow, his forecast is slightly better, but still only about 47 percent.

Myrna, you could flip a quarter and be more accurate than that!

AUDIO: [Myrna flipping a coin]

MYRNA: Heads an early spring, tails six more weeks...

AUDIO: [Myrna announces the result]

REICHARD: Okay then! Either way we know spring will come...no matter what.

It’s The World and Everything in It.

WORLD Radio transcripts are created on a rush deadline. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of WORLD Radio programming is the audio record.


Please wait while we load the latest comments...