Israel delays response to Iran’s missile barrage

MARY REICHARD, HOST: It’s Tuesday the 15th of October.

Glad to have you along for today’s edition of The World and Everything in It. Good morning, I’m Mary Reichard.

NICK EICHER, HOST: And I’m Nick Eicher.

First up, Israel’s wider war.

Israel continues its ground offensive in Southern Lebanon, destroying weapons and bases built by Iran’s proxy terror group Hezbollah. Here’s Military Spokesman Daniel Hagari in a video released by the IDF yesterday.

DANIEL HAGARI: We're now in the bunker that we found underneath a Lebanese house in a Shia village only a couple of kilometers from our border.

REICHARD: Meanwhile, days have gone by since Israeli leaders promised to hit Iran itself with a lethal and surprising attack.

This comes after Iran launched a missile barrage numbering in the hundreds aimed not at military targets, but civilians in Tel Aviv.

EICHER: Joining us now to talk about the conflict is Richard Goldberg. He previously served the White House on the National Security Council staff. He’s now a senior advisor for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

REICHARD: Rich, good morning.

RICHARD GOLDBERG: Good morning.

REICHARD: Let’s start with Iran. Rich, what do you make of Israel’s delay in responding to Iran’s missile attack? Do you think U.S. diplomatic pressure is a factor?

GOLDBERG: Well, it's really possible that diplomatic pressure is playing into this. I would call it likely more coordination and deconfliction, though there may be some pressure as well, certainly when you hear the president of the United States say very publicly he does not favor Israeli strikes on nuclear targets or on oil infrastructure specifically, the need for U.S. support in defending Israel and whatever Iran might respond with after the Israeli first strike, is certainly something to be taken into consideration. And obviously we're now seeing the deployment of a THAAD system. This is the Terminal High Altitude [Area] Defense System, air defense system that the Americans have, certainly bolstering Israel's ballistic missile defense here ahead of whatever Israeli action is coming. That's good news for the Israelis to increase their defense posture before going on offense, and so if taking more time to coordinate with the Americans is providing them a better defense for whatever the Iranians might launch. But also remembering that time in this regard, is certainly still on Israel's side. There is no rush to respond. You don't have to show force immediately. They can launch a strike package inside of Iran. We saw them hit a target in Iran, very symbolically, back in April after that first big ballistic missile strike. But remember, they also have covert capabilities inside of Iran. We've seen Mossad sabotage efforts, assassination plots, explosions. And so if you need some time to make sure those are all synchronized, and you want to sequence something so that you are knocking out command and control, you are disorienting the regime. It might not be hey, let's rush and hit a few targets as much as we can and see what happens next. Let's actually think this through. Be methodical, be strategic about it. Build this into a campaign, not just into a one off retaliation.

REICHARD: Rich, is it possible that Israel has struck Iran…but in such a way that Iran doesn’t want to publicly admit?

GOLDBERG: Well, we saw some explosions in the last few days. You always see certain explosions here and there at locations that have in the past been tied to their nuclear program, their supply chain, centrifuge supplies, things like that. You never know whether or not that's actually a sabotage operation, some sort of covert action that took out something or disrupted something, those are always possible. Unlikely that the Iranians would want to acknowledge that happening, if they can avoid it. Though you see gossip and rumoring in social media that neither side really acknowledges. It's a challenge for us because we don't actually know the extent of Israeli capabilities, and therefore we can't in our own minds, conceive of what an operation multi dimensionally might look like.

REICHARD: Turning now to Lebanon…Israel very quickly took out Hezbollah’s communications and command structure late last month, and then began a ground offensive. Where does it stand now…and what’s their objective?

GOLDBERG: Well, I think it's important to recognize that Hezbollah remains a threat in Lebanon. Its leadership has been decimated, and that's an incredible accomplishment by the Israeli military, something that most people didn't believe was possible in just a couple of weeks time, from the Secretary General, the head of the terrorist organization, Hassan Nasrallah on down. That’s a crisis for Tehran, since this is essentially an extension of Iran. So what is Israel doing now on the ground? While the air campaign is still potentially there to look at high value targets within the terror infrastructure command and control. You are seeing the Israelis going town by town off of their border to root out the hidden missiles, the hidden anti tank guided missiles, which have been attacking homes, so that at some point the 60,000 to 100,000 Israelis who have been evacuated from their homes since October 8, when Hezbollah started firing on Israel can actually return. That doesn't mean you're going to eliminate all threats from Hezbollah. It doesn't mean Hezbollah is going to be gone in southern Lebanon, but if you can push Hezbollah back beyond the range of those anti tank guided missiles, if you can guarantee that the space between that range, which is around six miles, 10 kilometers, is free of those threats, that there's some sort of a buffer zone there, that would be a big achievement to restore some modicum of normalcy of security to those northern border towns on the Israeli side. So if there is ever a cease-fire in the future. You can then see an opportunity to bring people back to their homes, which is the stated objective here of the Israeli government.

REICHARD: Rich, final question. You’ve studied this area for a long long time now. Is there anything happening in that region that you think the American public should know but perhaps doesn’t?

GOLDBERG: I think the one thing to remember is that this isn't something thousands of miles away that is disconnected from our security. Important to always remember what is the national interest here? Obviously important to support an ally, and Israel is at the tip of the spear in a very dangerous area for democracy, sort of the canary in the coal mine for our national security. Certainly important that Iran never gets a nuclear weapon—not just for the region, but for the world. Remember, this is a regime that chants Death to America before it says Death to Israel. They have active terror plots against Americans right now. They're operating on our soil today, and of course, they are building long range missiles capable of carrying nuclear weapons all the way to the U.S. homeland. That is their ultimate intent. So understand that we have a very direct national security interest in degrading Iran, degrading its threats, ensuring that Israel is successful in dismantling this ring of fire that Iran has created and ultimately taking out the biggest threats to us inside of Iran, its nuclear and missile programs.

REICHARD: Rich Goldberg is a former member of the National Security Council staff…and senior advisor for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Thank you for your time!

GOLDBERG: You bet.

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