Is Taiwan next?

NICK EICHER, HOST: Coming up next on The World and Everything in It: China.

The world’s attention is focused on Ukraine, where the war with Russia is into its third month with no end in sight. Western powers, especially in Europe, consider Moscow the greatest threat since World War II.

MYRNA BROWN, HOST: But to the East, another threat looms.

China had long had its eye on Taiwan and has all but announced plans for an invasion. Taiwan’s military and reserve forces hold regular drills to be prepared to fend off a military attack.

EICHER: For America’s part, U.S. officials have issued warnings to China not to attack Taiwan. But will those warnings be enough to deter Xi Jinping, given Vladimir Putin’s ignoring warnings over Ukraine?

Joining us now to talk about that is Mark Montgomery. He served more than three decades in the U.S. Navy, retiring in 2017 as a rear admiral. Now he’s with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

BROWN: Good morning, sir!

MARK MONTGOMERY: Well, thank you very much for having me here.

BROWN: China has made no secret about its plans for Taiwan. What preparations has Beijing made toward an eventual invasion?

MONTGOMERY: Well, with a defense budget that’s significantly smaller than the United States, they have very effectively designed an asymmetric toolset with anti-ship ballistic missile,s with land attack ballistic missiles, with new destroyers, with old bombers, but with new missiles that can really challenge the United States armed forces inside the first island chain. And this military investment has been complemented by significant diplomatic and economic outreach throughout East Asia and South Asia. And you know, one of the more notable aspects of that is the Belt Road Initiative. But there's much more to their efforts that have really undermined the United States position as the economic and security partner of choice throughout all of South and East Asia.

BROWN: What lessons do you think Xi Jinping is learning from the West’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine?

MONTGOMERY: Well, I think in general, this, he has probably been surprised. He's been surprised at the resilience of the Ukrainians. And he's been probably been surprised at the agility and the speed of the combined U.S.-European effort led by the Biden administration, to respond to Russian aggression. One thing I think he won't take away, he won't think that his forces are going to be as unagile and poorly performing as the Russian army has been. I think probably his team is telling him that is a factor of, of Russian decision making and, and Russian investment in its military over the last two decades, that has not been replicated by the Chinese. So they'll feel that their readiness is at a much higher level than that's been seen in the Russian forces.

BROWN: You recently wrote that the United States should be learning some lessons here, too. What does the invasion of Ukraine have to teach us about dealing with China in the Taiwan Strait?

MONTGOMERY: Well, a coalition of the willing led by the Biden administration has done a lot to impact the warfight. But of course, our goal is always to deter a fight before it happens. And in that case, probably our biggest lesson learned is what we didn't do over the last three or four years. And what we should have been doing was making significant investments in Ukraine then. You know, we might have prevented this war, deterred this war, saved the 1000s probably 20 to 30 to 40,000 lives that have been lost, and the hundreds of billions of dollars of economic dislocation and damage that we're now going to have to repair and potentially, you know, a famine inducing lack of agricultural delivery from Russia and Ukraine, to the Maghreb, to North Africa, and the Middle East. So all those things could have been avoided, if we deterred the war. But to deter a war, you have to make the investments ahead of time.

BROWN: What should the United States be doing now to deter an invasion of Taiwan?

MONTGOMERY: So I think we need to begin to do exercises with Taiwan's navy and their air force. Right now, if we were to fight side by side with Taiwan, so two plus two would equal three. What I mean is the combination of us would be lesser than the separate parts. We need to make it like if we were to fight alongside the Japanese or the British, where two plus two equals five, where the combination of our forces together is greater than the constituent parts. But the only way you can do that is to exercise with your ally and partner. And the one country that will be deterred, that will recognize what's happening, and thus be deterred by, potentially deterred by it is China, who studies U.S. and Taiwan operations very carefully.

BROWN: The invasion of Ukraine really galvanized Europe and its allies to take a strong stand against Vladimir Putin. Do you think Taiwan would see the same kind of backing from the world’s democracies?

MONTGOMERY: So I do think they would get technical support and potentially financial support. But the challenge is, what have we not done to Putin, you know, since he invaded? The truth is, the Europeans have not cut off their oil and gas purchases. So he's still receiving $1 or $1.1 billion a day in remittances or payments from the West for his oil and natural gas. In other words, they were not willing to significantly damage their economy in order to impose cost on Russia for what they did in Ukraine. So if you were to shift this paradigm over to China, will the United States take economic measures that are tough on our people, in order to impose costs on China? Will the Japanese do the same? Will the Koreans, will the Australians and will our European allies? And if we all act as the Europeans have with oil and gas towards Russia, if we all act with kind of that with timidity towards China, then we really won't be imposing much economic costs. And what it really comes down to, can the Taiwan's be as resilient as the Ukrainians have been and suffer the attacks from the Chinese as the Ukrainians have from the Russians, while we do a very, very slow sanctions punishing regime, which is what's happening right now?

BROWN: Mark Montgomery is an expert in cyber warfare and China at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Thank you so much for joining us today!

MONTGOMERY: Thank you for having me.

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