India-Pakistan tensions escalate

MYRNA BROWN, HOST: It’s Thursday the 8th of May.

Glad to have you along for today’s edition of The World and Everything in It. Good morning, I’m Myrna Brown.

MARY REICHARD, HOST: And I’m Mary Reichard.

Up first, rising tensions between nuclear powers.

SOUND: [ROCKETS]

On Tuesday, India launched missiles into Pakistan. More than 20 people were killed.

SINGH: The targets we had chosen were destroyed with great precision.

BROWN: India’s Defense Minister says the casualties were terrorists. Pakistan says they were civilians.

In response, Pakistan’s Prime Minister has authorized the army to take “corresponding actions.”

SOUND: [WOMAN CRYING AFTER ATTACK]

The latest strike by India comes in response to an April attack in Kashmir that killed 26 people. India blames Pakistani nationals.

Hot and cold conflict over the region dates back to 1947.

AUDIO: And now the time comes when we will redeem our pledge.

REICHARD: That’s when India gained independence from Great Britain, and Pakistan and India were split into separate Muslim and Hindu countries.

They’ve fought multiple wars since, with the United Nations drawing a Line of Control in 1972. But the dispute continued

BROWN: And now both nations have nuclear weapons. Pakistan’s ambassador to the US has called on President Trump for help.

SHEIKH: This is one nuclear flashpoint. There's nothing more flashier than this in terms of the impact on a large chunk of humanity that any misadventure, any miscalculation, any war here can cause.

REICHARD: Joining us now to talk about it is Sumit Ganguly. He’s a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and professor emeritus at Indiana University, Bloomington.

BROWN: Sumit, good morning.

SUMIT GANGULY: Thank you.

BROWN: Sumit, tensions have been simmering for a couple of weeks. India paused a water treaty that Pakistan depends on, and Pakistan blocked its airspace to commercial flights from India. And now shots have been fired. Just how serious is this situation compared to previous standoffs?

GANGULY: Well, this is comparable to certain previous standoffs, but on this occasion, tempers are really frayed in India, particularly because of the sheer cruelty and brutality that was involved in killing the 26 tourists. They separated Hindus and Muslims in the most callous fashion, and then systematically shot all the Hindus. And this has really inflamed passions in India, which is forcing the government to some degree to act - that if the government doesn't act and demonstrate some resolve through actions which are visible, which are noticeable, which are measurable, they are going to be faced with an electoral backlash. Pakistan, by the same token, cannot be seen as standing idly by. Its own population will want a pound of flesh, and so we are now locked into the possibility of an escalatory spiral.

BROWN: What does this mean for the United States? I mean, you know, what ties do we have with Pakistan and India that could be strained if indeed they go to war?

GANGULY: With Pakistan, our principal interest is that really is are two fold, one that Pakistan does not again return to dispersing nuclear material, particularly nuclear weapons technology, as it has done in the past. And the second is we do rely on Pakistan to some degree for Counter Terrorism cooperation.

As far as India is concerned, we have a multi-faceted relationship. It's an economic relationship, it's a strategic partnership, it's a diplomatic relationship, and also a substantial People to People relationship. For example, it's little known that there are 5 million people of Indian origin in the United States, many of whom are citizens. There's a million Americans working in India at the moment. So this is a multifaceted, deep relationship of considerable importance to both parties.

BROWN: Another nation watching closely is China…what would China stand to gain from Pakistan and India either coming to blows, or resolving their differences?

GANGULY: They have little to gain from India and Pakistan going to a war, except in so far that it might weaken India's military capabilities. India and China have a long standing border dispute. They see each other as rivals in Asia, and India has a substantial trade deficit with China like us, so China would only be happy in that some of India's military resources would be directed towards the western border, and if a war does occur, some damage would be done to India's military capabilities. So to that extent, China would be happy. But on the other hand, they do not want to see an escalatory spiral that even leads Pakistan to be tempted to use nuclear weapons, because that would be right on China's doorstep.

BROWN: Final question here, sir. Is there any other aspect of what’s going on in India and Pakistan that you think warrants more attention?

GANGULY: What warrants more attention is Pakistan's unwillingness to abandon its use of terrorist proxies to carry out its military strategy against India. During our military presence in Afghanistan, some Pakistani terrorist groups even attacked American forces. So we have a dog in this fight, and in any case, terrorism as a strategy has to be brought to an end, not just in South Asia, but on a global basis. This is unacceptable conduct.

BROWN: Sumit Ganguly is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution studying Indian relations with the United States. Thank you for your time today!

GANGULY: Thanks very much.

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